USD / INR Update. As on Friday 21 Oct 2022. CMP 82.80. Posted at 9:30 am.
Bottom line : The thrust from the larger 4th wave triangle has met requirements for the larger 5th wave. A reversal could be on the cards.
Both counts below show the potential of a reversal. Count 1 shows temporary reversal followed by new all time highs, while the other shows USD INR is completing a larger 5th wave and the impending top could hold for months, if not years.
Count 1 : This shows an intermediate degree wave 3 nearing a top. Under this count, next significant move is to below 80 to complete a 4th wave, before further new all time highs.
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Count 2 : This count shows the potential of a larger 5th wave in it's final stages. Under this count, the rupee would strengthen to below 75 (4th wave of lower degree).
Triangles are often penultimate waves within impulses. The 5th wave has met the triangle width measurement and looks ripe for a larger reversal.
USD / INR Update. As on Fri 30 Sept 2022. CMP 81.50. Posted at 11:40 am.
Bottom line : A temporary top could be in place at 82. Range in coming weeks / months could be large with USD INR being choppy between 78 ~ 82.
A thrust from a triangle on the daily chart shows price could be complete at 82. A decline below support at 81.25 ~ 81.30 would bolster the view of a temporary top.
If a top has formed, USD / INR is likely to decline to the center of the triangle from where the thrust originated, i.e. the 79.50 level. It could also decline to the 78.50 level, which would set up another bullish opportunity.
USD / INR Update. As on 23 Sept 2022. CMP 81.10. Posted at 9:30 am
Bottom line : Ascending triangle break out. Trend is up. Ascending triangle upside target is nearly met, but given the momentum can still reach the 82 levels. The Elliott Wave pattern also calls for some caution on the long side.
Elliott Wave Count : Price has nearly completed an intermediate degree wave 3, potentially a little higher towards 81.50 ~ 82 is also possible. Wave 4 correction could begin anytime.
The range in the coming weeks could be quite large, between 78 ~ 82 (or wherever a wave 3 top completes). Plenty of whipsawing action. Traders should be extra careful.
USD / INR Update. As on Mon 19 Sept 2022. CMP 79.62. Posted at 11 am.
Bottom line : Likely drift sideways for a couple more weeks. But a new high earlier above 80.21 could mean a breakout has begun.
Classical charting shows the potential of an ascending triangle formation, and high probability of price remaining between 78.38 ~ 80.13 until a breakout above 80.13.
Note : As USD INR is being updated more frequently these days, pls see prior updates for longer term count.
There is not much seperating the 2 counts.
Primary count : USD INR in a 4th wave triangle before a thrust to new highs above 80.21.
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Alternate : This count shows further new lows below 78.99 to complete wave c of the triangle (or flat).
USD / INR Update. As on Thurs 15 Sept 2022. CMP 79.50. Posted at 9 am.
Bottom line : If price does decline to below 78.90, would provide a good opportunity to go long USD / INR.
Larger trend also remains towards rupee weakening.
The pattern on USD / INR has played out well so far. But if price breaches 79.63 to the upside, it is possible that a low is already in place at 78.99. Until that happens, await an opportunity between 78.70 ~ 78.90 to go long.
On the 4 hour chart, an expanding ending diagonal appears to be in play. But expanding ending diagonals are rare, so even at this late stage of the diagonal, it is wiser to not trade this last leg down.
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On the daily chart, price has met minimum requirement for wave C down of a bullish triangle. If USD / INR breaches 79.63 to the upside, the probability rises that a low is already in place at 78.99, and price would likely continue sideways for a while longer in the bullish triangle shown on the daily.
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USD / INR Update. As on 13 Sept 2022. CMP 79.08. Posted at 1:45 pm.
Bottom line : The temporary strength in rupee is not quite finished. A low towards 78.75 or lower is the higher probability. But in the very near term, a bounce is possible.
Larger trend remains towards rupee weakening.
From earlier post of 7 Sept "A sharp drop ahead to below 79 is looking likely.".
Today's low at 78.998 likely marks the end of wave iii of c down within a bullish triangle. This still calls for a wave iv up, and wave v down, likely towards 78.75.
There is a possibility wave c takes the form of an expanding ending diagonal. There could be a rally to above 79.43 first before a final new low to 78.75 level.
(In case rupee strengthening accelerates from current levels, that would open up the potential to below 78, but at this time it is lower probability).
USD / INR Update. As on Wed 7 Sept 2022. CMP 79.90. Posted at 5 pm. All prices are spot prices.
Bottom line : Potential rupee strength ahead to below 79. Dollar bulls beware.
The USD / INR rally is taking a breather. A sharp drop ahead to below 79 is looking likely.
From post of 18 July "A small wave 3 of minor degree could be complete at 80.21..."
On the 4 hour chart, an ending diagonal appears to be in play. This comes after an impulsive 5 wave decline from 80.13 to 79.27. This is a strong pattern.
USD / INR is likely to complete it's current rally between 79.94 and 80.13 (in wave 5 of an ending diagonal) and decline rapidly after.
- If a triangle is playing out, USD INR would decline to just below 79.
- But if a flat plays out, USD INR could decline to below 78.38 and potentially as far as below 78.
- Count is valid as long as 80.13 is not breached to the upside first.
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Larger count still favours Rupee weakness to above 82.
USD / INR Update. As on Thurs 1 Sept 2022. CMP 79.30. Posted at 11:30 am.
Bottom line : USD / INR is likely to remain in a range of 78.38 to 80.20 for several weeks. Triangle outlined in prior post of 18 Aug appears to be in play.
Strong resistance for near term at 80.10 ~ 80.20 which is unlikely to be exceeded. There is also a possibility for USD / INR to reach below 78 before the larger rally resumes (i.e. rupee weakness).
Larger trend remains up towards 82.
USD / INR update. As on Thurs 18 Aug 2022. CMP 79.58. Posted at 4:40 pm.
Bottom line : Larger trend is up. Near term likely consolidation between 78.25 ~ 80.50.
USD / INR is likely in a 4th wave consolidation between 78.50 ~ 80.50. Consolidation could take the shape of a triangle or flat.
If price exceeds 81, it is likely consolidation is complete.
Larger term structure is USD / INR is thrusting out from a multi-year triangle to above 82.
USD / INR update. As on Fri 5 Aug 2022. CMP 79.20. Posted at 12:20 pm.
Bottom line : Larger trend clearly up (weak rupee). Near term price is likely in a 4th wave consolidation.
In the near term, price is consolidating in a minor degree 4th wave (potentially a sideways triangle).
The 78 level should offer strong support, though it is unlikely to fall that far.
Note that B waves of triangles or flats can go above the orthodox tops of 3rd waves, in this case 80.21, so a new high above 80.21 does not automatically signal a breakout. If it happens, more likely to be a head-fake (or bull-trap).
USD / INR Update. As on Fri 29 July 2022. CMP 79.21. Posted at 1:45 pm.
Bottom line : Larger uptrend intact. Price is in a minor 4th wave correction.
From earlier post of 18 July "A small wave 3 of minor degree could be complete at 80.21....if a 3rd of 3rd wave is complete at 80.21, then a small decline to 79 ~ 79.20 is on the cards before the uptrend resumes."
USD / INR has declined sufficiently within a minor 4th wave correction. Higher or sideways to higher should resume from near current levels. 4th wave of lower degrees are at 78.80 ~ 78.90, which is likely to act as stiff support.
(If an intermediate degree 3rd wave is complete at 80.21 (instead of a minor degree 3rd wave as labelled), then USD INR has the potential to decline to 78 or slightly below.)
USD / INR Update. As on Mon 18 July 2022. CMP 79.84. Posted at 11:40 am.
Bottom line : USD / INR clearly in an uptrend (weakening rupee) that still some way to go before it is complete.
Near term, in case of a decline to 79 ~ 79.10, a bullish opportunity would likely present itself to go long USD INR.
Larger picture : Price is thrusting out from a multi-year 4th wave bullish triangle. Simple triangle width measurement calls for a target of 82.50, but could go higher. The time relationships calls for at least an uptrend of nearer 10 months (0.618 of 16 months in wave 1), and potentially even 16 months, which confirms the uptrend is not close to completion.
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2 week chart : USD / INR remains in a 3rd wave (of intermediate degree) to the upside.
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Weekly chart : A small wave 3 of minor degree could be complete at 80.21. Any near term upside breach of 80.21 would mean the 3rd of 3rd wave is still in force.
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3 day chart : But if a 3rd of 3rd wave is complete at 80.21, then a small decline to 79 ~ 79.20 is on the cards before the uptrend resumes.
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Daily chart : The 3rd of 3rd wave appears to have sub-divided into it's own 5 sub-waves, which could mean a smallish correction in the uptrend. Any near term breach of 80.21 would likely mean the 3rd of 3rd is still going strong.
USD / INR Update. As on Fri 10 June 2022. CMP 77.80. Posted at 9:20 am.
Bottom line : Short term INR is set to thrust up from a triangle, which looks a lot like a rectangle too. Simple thrust measurement provides a short term target of 78.35 ~ 78.40.
Intermediate count is towards rupee weakening.
If an initial wave 1 up (on the 4 hour chart) is nearing completion, then a few weeks of rupee strength may follow. But if USD / INR is entering a 3rd of 3rd wave rally, then the rupee weakness may just be getting started.
Larger picture, price has begun a 5th wave to the upside in a thrust from a mult-year bullish triangle.
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USD / INR update. As on Sat 7 May 2022. CMP 76.95. Posted at 1:35 pm.
Bottom line : Bullish against 75.98 (low of May 5th).
USD / INR may finally be making it's move. Price should be headed up in either wave (v) of a diagonal or in a 3rd of 3rd wave. In either scenario, the minimum target is 78.05. If it is a 3rd of 3rd wave, USD / INR is set to move significantly higher, potentially into the mid-eighties. The low of May 5th at 75.98 can be used as a risk management level (i.e. stop loss).
USD / INR Analysis. As on 1 April 2022. CMP 75.92. Posted at 1:25 pm.
Bottom line : The upside breach of 77 confirms the trend has shifted to the upside (weakening rupee). But since the breach of 77, USD INR has been difficult to trade, as it continues to remain choppy.
Bullish against 74.32
Suspect price should start up soon to above 77.15 in a potential leading diagonal.
There is also a possibility a 3rd of 3rd wave higher could begin soon. Both point to higher USD / INR with a 1st target of 78.50
Longer term targets are 83, and possibly even above 90.
If 74.32 is broken to the downside, it would require a re-evaluation of the wave count.
USD / INR update. As on 7 March 2022. CMP 76.90. Posted at 10:40 am.
Bottom line : Price is thrusting out from a 3 year old triangle. Today's high above 77 confirms the larger trend to the upside has resumed. 1st target is about 82~83, but could move substantially higher.
USD / INR Update. As on Fri 11 Feb 2022. CMP 75.40. Posted at 11:40 am.
Bottom line : Conviction grows the larger bullish triangle is complete. Bullish against 74.57. Confirmation that the triangle is complete will come after price makes a new high above 77 on route to at least the 83 level, and quite possibly towards 90.
The bullish triangle that lasted 39 months appears to be finished. Price seems to have begun a 3rd of 3rd wave up. Bullish against 74.57.
If price declines below 74.57, the probability would shift to wave E of the larger triangle still in progress.
USD / INR Update. As on Tues 25 Jan 2022. CMP 74.67
The large bullish triangle that began in Oct 2018 could be complete. Confirmation that triangle is complete would come after 77 is breached to the upside. For traders that may be too far / too long to wait.
Whether the recent low at 73.75 is wave E of the triangle or just wave A of E is difficult to know. But it has done enough for wave E to be complete. We suspect USD / INR is in the initial stages of a rally.
Larger term targets are anywhere between 83 ~ 98. Any trades taken should have a clear stop loss below the recent low of 73.75 just in case wave E is still playing out.
USD / INR Update. As on Tues 18 Jan 2022. CMP 74.35. Posted at 9:55 am.
We are watching the business channels this morning. They are full of euphoria, and whether investors should invest in this particular sector or that, because they may have missed the bus, the implicit message being to buy at these levels or risk being further left out. Not a single voice of caution.
Bottom line : A multi-year bullish triangle may be complete in wave E, and price may be setting up for a thrust to the upside (target roughly 82.50 ~ 83). But cannot know for sure this triangle is complete until rupee moves past 77.01
On the hourly chart, a 5 wave impulse could be unfolding to the upside in an initial wave 1. Once complete, it would bolster the probability of an impending thrust above 77 to the 82.50 ~ 83 level.
In the near term, if price declines below 74.05 (top of wave (1) of smaller degree), it could mean that the larger wave E of (4) is not complete.
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Larger term triangle may be complete, and price is setting up for a thrust to the upside. Wave 4 triangle has taken 39 months, while wave 2 of same degree took 28 months (a fibonacci 1.38 times). While time relationships are not always present with Elliott Wave analysis, they could be used to bolster a particular count.
A weakening in the rupee would also fit in with the bearish expectation for equities.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Thurs 6 Jan 2022. Posted at 1:45 pm.
Bottom line : Rupee weakening is likely to be the next significant move.
Primary count : USD / INR may have completed wave E of a large bullish triangle that began over 3 years ago (Oct 2018).
The other option within this primary count is that just wave (A) of E is nearing completion, and that this wave E could extend for several more weeks.
The only way we will know for sure the triangle is complete is when USD / INR exceeds 77.01.
If wave E and the triangle are complete, price should commence a thrust up to new highs with a rough target of 82.80 (triangle width measurement).
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Alternate count : This count also shows weakening of the rupee to come, but to between 76.40 ~ 77 to complete wave D of the larger triangle.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Tues 21 Dec 2021. Posted at 11:10 am. CMP 75.70.
Bottom line : USD / INR is in the latter stages of wave D to the upside of a large bullish triangle. The next significant move should be a decline in USD / INR (implying Rupee strength) to the 73 ~ 74 level.
The most remarkable thing about yesterday's mayhem in the equity markets was that the Rupee was calm, and in fact appreciated, when a knee jerk weakening to the 78 level would not have been out of place.
The probability of it surpassing 77 in the near term is slim (if it does exceed 77 in the near term, the only likely explanation would be a large ending diagonal is playing out to the upside (instead of the large triangle shown below), but since ending diagonals are rare (low probability), it is not a probability but a possibility.
That said, Wave D is either already in place, or could be in the latter stages of a smaller ending diagonal, which should end below 77.01 before reversing course to the downside to 73 ~ 74 level in wave E of the large bullish triangle.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Sat 4 Dec 2021. CMP 75.22. Posted at 10 am.
Bottom line : Larger picture, USD / INR remains in a large bullish triangle that began in Oct 2018. Longer term INR is expected to weaken. But this triangle is only about 55 ~ 70% complete depending upon the count. Only a rally above 77 would warn that the break out has begun.
There is no preference re count as both have an almost equal weightage with a very slight preference towards Count 1. But this could change in a heart beat.
Count 1 : Price is headed up to complete wave D of this large bullish triangle to above 75.665 but below 77. This would be followed by Wave E to the downside, which would complete the larger wave (4) bullish triangle and set the stage for a 5 wave impulse in USD / INR.
A rally above 75.67 within the next couple of weeks would further bolster the probability of this count.
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Count 2 : This shows that price is still in wave C to the downside. This complex sideways action could result in taking price to the 71 level to complete wave C of the larger bullish triangle.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Thurs 11 Nov 2021. CMP 74.47. Posted at 12:50 pm.
Bottom line : Neutral short & intermediate term. Larger trend remains towards weakening rupee.
No preference re count. Both are equally possible. Price is in a larger 4th wave bullish triangle (see weekly, 2 week, and monthly chart)
Count 1 : Price could still decline to the 70 - 71 level to complete wave C (in red) of the larger bullish triangle. A rally above 76 first would likely create a preference for Count 2.
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Count 2 : Price in wave D to the upside that should end below 77. On completion of wave D, a decline back to the 73-74 range would be the expectation for wave E. 
USD / INR Analysis. As on Thurs 7 Oct 2021. CMP 74.73. Posted at 6:10 pm.
Bottom line : The recent rally above 75 has caused us to switch the alternate count to primary.
Primary count : Price is likely in wave D to the upside of a large bullish triangle. Wave D should end between 76 ~ 77. The alternate count, while slightly lower probability now, is still very much on the table.
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Alternate count : This was our primary count for a long time, and we are reluctant to let it go, simply because it is better fit. This shows price still needs to make a low at about 70 to complete wave C. As long as price doesn't exceed 75.57 first, this is still possible.
USD / INR Analysis. As on 30 Aug 2021. CMP 73.47. Posted at 12:10 pm.
Bottom line : Rupee strength to the 70 level. From earlier posts "Preference is for USD / INR to decline (rupee strength) to the 70 level, But a touch above 75.57 would shift preference to the Alternate count."
Primary count : Rupee appears headed lower to the 70 level, (69.50 ~ 71 level) to complete wave C of a larger bullish triangle. Newer subscribers will notice the hypothesis of a large 4th wave bullish triangle has been clear since well over a year.
Alternate count : This count shows wave C of the larger triangle is already complete, and price is in wave D to the upside, which would reach anywhere between 75.57 to 77, before wave E down of the triangle commences.
Under this count, 72.25 would act as a floor, and should not be violated at all.
The only reason this is the alternate count is because wave C is slightly skewed to the upside. This count is still a very good one, and there is not much to choose between the two.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Friday 6 Aug 2021. CMP 74.15. Posted at 3:20 pm.
Not much change from previous post. 75.57 remains key level. Preference is for USD / INR to decline (rupee strength) to the 70 level. But a touch above 75.57 would shift preference to the Alternate count.
Primary count : A temporary top is possibly in place at 75.03. Small new highs cannot be ruled out as long as price remains below 75.57. Under this count, price should decline (rupee strength) to the 69.50 ~ 71 level to complete wave C of a larger bullish triangle.
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Alternate count : This count shows wave C of the larger triangle is already complete, and price is in wave D to the upside, which would reach anywhere between 75.57 to 77, before wave E down of the triangle commences.
Under this count, 72.25 would act as a floor.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Tues 13 July 2021. CMP 74.50. Posted at 1:50 pm.
From previous post of 11 June when price was 73.05, "A temporary floor is likely at the 72.25 ~ 72.35 level. Rupee should weaken to 73.50 ~ 75 over the next few weeks."
In less than 3 weeks, on 2 July, USD / INR rallied to 74.88.
It is decision time for USD / INR. 75.57 remains key level. Preference is for USD / INR to start declining from here (rupee strength) to the 70 level. But a touch above 75.57 would shift preference to the Alternate count.
Primary count : A temporary top is possibly in place at 74.88. Small new highs cannot be ruled out as long as price remains below 75.57. Under this count, price should soon commence a decline (rupee strength) to the 69.50 ~ 71 level to complete wave C of a larger bullish triangle.
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Alternate count : This count shows wave C of the larger triangle is already complete, and price is in wave D to the upside, which would reach anywhere between 75.57 to 77, before wave E down of the triangle commences.
Under this count, 72.25 would act as a floor.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Friday 11 June 2021. CMP 73.05. Posted at 5 pm.
A temporary floor is likely at the 72.25 ~ 72.35 level. Rupee should weaken to 73.50 ~ 75 over the next few weeks.
Primary count : Wave (a) of Wave Y is likely complete at 72.31. Wave B should take USD INR to 73.50 ~ 75 before rupee strength to 69.50 ~ 71 completes wave (c) of Y of a larger wave C of a bullish triangle.
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Alternate count : This count shows wave C of the larger triangle completed at 72.25, and price is currently in wave D to the upside, which would reach anywhere between 75.56 to 77.
Alt count continued.. This current wave D to the upside is unfolding as a double zigzag to the upside (WXY), of which wave X appears to be complete at 72.31. Price is now in wave Y of D now to roughly to the upside.
If price exceeds 75.60, this count would certainly become preferred.
This alternate count is also good. The only tiny objection we have is that wave C is slightly skewed to the upside, which could happen if the weakening rupee larger trend is strong.
USD / INR Analysis. As on 25 May 2021. CMP 72.85. Posted at 10:15 am.
Bottom line : Expected short term rupee weakness is late in development, and could commence at any time. Intermediate trend still calls for rupee strength to 69.50 ~ 71.
This late development of rupee weakness has slightly widened the gap between the Primary and Alternate count. Otherwise there is hardly any change from previous post of 11 May.
Primary count : Wave A down is likely complete (or almost so) at 72.75. Wave B should carry USD / INR up to 73.75 ~ 74.50 roughly before a decline in wave C to near the 69.50 ~ 71 level.
Larger term, price is wave C down of a larger bullish triangle.
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This count shows wave C of the larger triangle completed at 72.25, and price is currently in wave D to the upside. This count is also good. The only tiny objection we have is that wave C is slightly skewed to the upside, which would happen if the weakening rupee larger trend is strong.
This current wave D to the upside is unfolding as a double zigzag to the upside (WXY), of which wave X appears to be complete at 73.25. Price should commence wave Y of D now to roughly the 76.50 level.
The difference between the primary and alternate counts are small from an elliott wave technical perspective, but have large implications in terms of price action.
If price exceeds 75.60, this count would certainly become preferred.
USD / INR Update. As on Tues 11 May 2021. CMP 73.41. Posted at 1:15 pm.
The short term rupee strength is probably complete, or almost so. Expect near term rupee weakness under both counts. Larger pattern, further rupee strength is still expected based on Primary count.
Primary count : Wave a down is likely complete (or almost so) at 73.25. Wave B should carry USD / INR up to 74 ~ 74.50 roughly before a decline in wave C to near the 69.50 ~ 71 level.
Larger term, price is wave C down of a larger bullish triangle.
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Alternate count : This count shows wave C of the larger triangle completed at 72.25, and price is currently in wave D to the upside. This count is also good. The only tiny objection we have is that wave C is slightly skewed to the upside, which would happen if the weakening rupee larger trend is strong.
This current wave D to the upside is unfolding as a double zigzag to the upside (WXY), of which wave X appears to be complete at 73.25. Price should commence wave Y of D now to roughly the 76.50 level.
The difference between the primary and alternate counts are small from an elliott wave technical perspective, but have large implications in terms of price action.
If price exceeds 75.60, this count would certainly become preferred.
USD / INR Update. As on Saturday 1 May 2021. CMP 74.07.
Yesterday USD / INR reached 73.94.
From previous post of 26 April A decline below 74.05 would mean a temporary top is in place and the rupee is in strengthening mode to below 72.25 (likely to the 69.50 ~ 71 level)."
Primary count : Price appears to have completed wave X up at 75.56. Under this count, the wave X top would act as a strong ceiling and is unlikely to be breached anytime soon.
Price has begun wave Y of a larger wave C to the downside that should eventually carry below 72.25 (likely to 69.50 ~ 71 level).
This wave Y would unfold in 3 waves (a-b-c). Price is currently in wave (a) down that could end anywhere between 72 ~ 74.
On the larger time frames, price is in a larger 4th wave triangle. This structure was our hypothesis since over a year. Every twist and turn has served to strengthen this hypothesis.
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Alternate count : This count shows wave C of the larger triangle completed at 72.25, and price is currently in wave D to the upside. This count is also good. The only tiny objection we have is that wave C is slightly skewed to the upside, which would happen if the weakening rupee larger trend is strong.
The difference between the primary and alternate counts are small from an elliott wave technical perspective, but have large implications in terms of price action.
If price exceeds 75.60, this count would certainly become preferred.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Monday 26 April 2021. CMP 74.83. Posted at 11:15 am
Bottom line : USD / INR is in the latter stages of it's rally that could still reach above 76. A decline below 74.05 would mean a temporary top is in place and the rupee is in strengthening mode to below 72.25 (likely to the 69.50 ~ 71 level).
Primary count : Wave X to the upside in its latter stages. Price appears to be in a smaller 4th wave bullish triangle on the daily chart that should result in an upward thrust to above 76. A decline below 74.05 would mean that Wave X is likely complete.
Larger picture (weekly chart and above) shows price is yet to complete wave C down at about 69.50 ~ 71 of a larger bullish triangle.
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Alternate count : This count shows that wave C of the triangle is already in place at 72.25, and no further new lows are expected. The only issue with this count is wave C is slightly skewed towards the upside. A "better look" for wave C would place it at the 69.50 ~ 71 level. But this is not a bad count at all.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Tues 13 April 2021. CMP 75.09. Posted at 10:30 am.
The 75 target has been achieved. We have called for a weakening of the rupee for over a month now. In our previous post of 31 March when price was 73.56 we said "A new high above 75 is still expected sooner rather than later."
Primary count : Wave X of a double correction within wave C of a bullish triangle is in progress.
The rupee could stay weak for a little while longer while it finishes it's smaller 4th and 5th waves.
After that a reversal is expected to below 72.25 (rupee strengthening) to the 69.50 ~ 71 level.
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Alternate count : This count shows that wave C of the triangle is already in place at 72.25, and no new lows are expected. The only issue with this count is wave C is slightly skewed towards the upside. A "better look" for wave C would place it at the 69.50 ~ 71 level. But this is not a bad count at all.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Wed 31 March 2021. CMP 73.56. Posted at 10 am.
The 72.25 level held, barely. The count outlined in previous posts remains valid.
From previous post of 4 March "Price should rally in a 3rd wave to above 74.10 and eventually complete a wave X at above 75."
A new high above 75 is still expected sooner rather than later.
The wave count is complicated, but it has provided a good roadmap.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Thurs 4 March 2021. CMP 72.93. Posted at 11:15 am.
On 25 Feb, when price was 72.40, our call for a reversal was apt "Price should rapidly make it's way above 74 under this count."
1 day later, on Feb 26, price made a high of 74.05.
But since then USD / INR has corrected to below 73.
72.25 is clearly to be used as a risk management level.
Price should rally in a 3rd wave to above 74.10 and eventually complete a wave X at above 75.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 25 Feb 2021. CMP 72.40. Posted at 2:50 pm.
Our stop loss below 72.50 was taken out, for a tiny loss on the trade. Price continued to decline to 72.25.
The pattern has been re-worked. The new structure is also looking ripe for a reversal. But once bitten, twice shy, and we will await further confirmation before entering a long trade i.e. long USD / INR.
A different ending diagonal appears to be complete or near complete at 72.25. Price should rapidly make it's way above 74 under this count.
There is no change to the larger structures.
USD / INR short term update. As on 17 Feb 2021. CMP 72.84
Our accuracy on the USD / INR chart has been literally off-the-charts (so far). The strengthening of the rupee ended exactly at 72.50. Rupee has weakened since then, bolstering the probability that a temporary low is in place at 72.50, and USD / INR is heading up to the 75 level.
Under this count, the rupee should weaken quickly. The ending diagonal took 66 trading days to reach 72.507. The reversal back to it's origin at 75 should take 50-65% of that, or apprx 35-40 trading days.
Read previous posts for further explanations / analysis.
72.50 can be used as risk management level.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Saturday, 13 Feb 2021. CMP 72.58.
Bottom line : A change in trend is likely. Rupee weakening could also portend a correction in equities.
Way back in April 2020, when the Rupee had weakened to almost 77, we identified a turn was imminent. We also identified then where price was likely to go "The lower trend channel comes in at about roughly 72 level, so this is a rough area of strong support."
Over time we fine-tuned the target to below 72.80, which was attained a few weeks ago, and said "Minimum requirement for completion of the ending diagonal has been met at 72.78. It is possible the rupee could still strengthen for a few more days to the 72.50 level, but the next significant move should be weakening to the 75 level."
Read more below.
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Under the ending diagonal on the daily chart, price has moved sufficiently to reach 72.55, and a turn is demanded from current levels.
Notice the daily chart again. A possible wedge has formed within the 5th wave of the ending diagonal. Price appears ripe to commence a turn up to 75.
A rally above 73.20 would likely be enough confirmation the turn has occured.
The ending diagonal would be invalidated if price reaches 72.25, and a re-evaluation of the count would be called for.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 28 Jan 2021. CMP 73.10
Bottom line : Weakening of the Rupee should commence soon, to the 75 level, after which a period of strengthening to the 70 level.
Minimum requirement for completion of the ending diagonal has been met at 72.78. It is possible the rupee could still strengthen for a few more days to the 72.50 level, but the next significant move should be weakening to the 75 level.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on Thurs 14 Jan 2021. CMP 73.11. Posted at 10:50 am.
The USD / INR chart is fairly complicated. Price is in a larger 4th wave triangle. Within this triangle, price is unfolding as a complex Wave C to under 71.
In the short term, an ending diagonal appears to be in it's final stages which should end at 72.50 ~ 72.75.
This should be followed by a quick reversal to the 75 level in a flat correction of wave X.
This may be significant for equities as well. Rupee weakness is often associated with equity weakness. Rupee weakness to 75 could well be the wave iv correction of minor degree in the Nifty 50, which could take the index down to the 14,000 level.
Bottom line : Another few days of rupee strength to 72.50 ~ 72.75 could be showing us the end of the immediate equity rally.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 30 Dec 2020. CMP 73.37
Expectation is still for rupee to strengthen below 71 in a complex double correction, but which route it will take is unclear.
Below is the best projection we have at this stage.
Not much to add from previous post of 12 Dec.
Price is in a complex correction in wave C down of a larger 4th wave triangle.
The 3 day chart would probably be of the most interest for Rupee direction over the next few weeks and months.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 12 Dec 2020. CMP 73.73
Trading this pair remains difficult. Price is in a complex correction in wave C down of a triangle.
Expectation remains for the rupee to strengthen to below 71 before larger weakness resumes.
The route that this pair will take to reach below 71 is difficult to project, but below is the best hypothesis we have at this stage.
The 3 day chart would probably be of the most interest for Rupee direction over the next few months.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 1 Dec 2020. CMP 73.52
There is no change from earlier posts. Price is following script which calls for rupee strength to near or below 71.
But trading this pair remains difficult as it is a choppy move, and is not providing short term patterns for entry.
From post of 29 Oct "The recent weakness in the rupee from under 73 to above 74 appears to be corrective (so far)."
From post of 9 Nov "We suspect price is still in wave C down of a triangle that should take price to near or below 71...This wave C appears to be unfolding as a double correction (WXY) to the downside."
USD / INR Analysis. As on 9 Nov 2020. CMP 73.87
From previous post of 29 Oct "The recent weakness in the rupee from under 73 to above 74 appears to be corrective (so far)."
We suspect price is still in wave C down of a triangle that should take price to near or below 71.
This wave C appears to be unfolding as a double correction (WXY) to the downside.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 29 Oct 2020. CMP 74.03
The recent weakness in the rupee from under 73 to above 74 appears to be corrective (so far). It is early to have any level of confidence, but an ending diagonal could be playing out to the downside, which means further rupee strength.
We prefer not to see a daily close above 74.30.
This count would be invalidated if 75.13 is first exceeded.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 23 Oct 2020. CMP 73.61. Posted at 10:35 am.
Price is essentially where it was a month ago. No change. It has remained in a tight range. Price is currently below the ichimoku cloud, which is acting as resistance. As long as price remains below the cloud, rupee strength is preferred.
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1st downside target of 73 has been met 7 weeks ago. Minimum target was met, when price reached 72.75 on Aug 31.
Preference is for continued rupee strength to below 72.
That said, tread carefully. Minimum target has been met, so a trend reversal is also a possibility.
Larger picture, price is likely in wave C down of a larger bullish triangle.
USD / INR Analysis. As on 26 Sept 2020. CMP 73.67
1st target of 73 has been met over 3 weeks ago. Minimum target has been met, when price reached 72.75 on Aug 31.
Preference is for continued rupee strength to below 72, especially if equities are headed up in a larger 5th wave.
That said, tread carefully. Minimum target has been met, so a trend reversal is also a possibility.
USD / INR Update. As on 31 Aug 2020. CMP 73.27
Price has rushed to our 1st target of roughly 73. We called for a turn in trend way back in April 2020. But trading the USD / INR short term has been another level of difficulty.
USD / INR Momentum is strong to the downside (i.e. rupee strength). Resistance currently is at about 73.60 ~ 73.80.
2nd target is about 72 ~ 72.50 to complete wave c of a larger wave C triangle. Once price reaches this level, a turn in trend is again expected as there is strong support in this region of 72.
The larger picture shows price in a 4th wave triangle. If the 4th wave triangle unfolds instead as an expanded flat, then a test of 68.27 is called for.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Technical Update. As on 2 July 2020. CMP 74.71
Pattern identified back on April 22, 2020, and hasn't changed since. See previous tabs and conclusion of April 22.
On the daily chart, today 2 July, price has broken down from a rectangle (rupee strength). Short term target is 73.80, and likely to reach below 73. (Wave C = Wave A past A at 72.81).
This break down from the rectangle fits in beautifully with equity strength (often rupee strength = equity strength).
To put price into context, it appears to be in wave C down of a 4th wave bullish triangle (see previous posts for more detailed analysis).
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 23 June 2020. CMP 75.65
Rupee strength expected.
On the daily chart, a small (b) wave top is likely in place at 76.39.
Price is headed lower in wave (c) of C (of a larger bullish triangle) to below 73 is the target.
Wave C = Wave A past A at 72.81 (so lets just say roughly below 73).
C waves can be strong. Rupee strength fits well with equity strength.
Wave C down on USD / INR also fits well with 3rd wave rallies in equities.
All the indices have lined up - the ducks are in a row, so to speak. Bank Nifty is the only slight laggard, although it is close to taking out the 1st hurdle at 22,040, which we expect it to do.
