S&P 500 Analysis – Elliott Wave India

6 March 2021

27 Feb 2021

25 Jan 2021

S&P 500 Analysis. As on Saturday 6 March 2021. CMP 3841.

Bottom line : The recent correction is likely complete at 3723 (which is near 4th wave of lower degree). In fact, from our post of 27 Feb we said "This current correction is likely to end near the 4th wave of lower degree, about 3700 ~ 3750".

We had also said in the same post "There is likely to be a fair amount of volatility as price completes smaller 4th and 5th waves." There has clearly been some serious volatility since then.

This recent low of 3723 could well be wave A of a 4th wave triangle. Price should continue sideways to up to complete smaller 4th and 5th waves.

Eventual target is about 4100.

If price declines below 3549, the wave count would need to be re-evaluated.

This post only deals with the shorter term wave counts. Please see post of 27 Feb for the longer term wave count.

On the 3 day chart, the 10 EMA remains above the 20 EMA. Trend remains up.

S&P 500. As on Saturday 27 Feb 2021. CMP 3811. Posted at 1:20 pm.

Bottom line : S&P is at an important long term resistance trendline, but the short term could still see upside to the 4100 level.

6 month chart : To understand price level, we take a birds eye view with a 6 month chart, i.e. EACH Candle is 6 months. Notice how price is testing the upper channel line. Is it going to fall immediately ? Probably not, but it is also unlikely to remain above this trend line for too long either. So a large correction is coming. The only question is whether sooner or later (it could even take several months to a couple of years to begin, or could start immediately).

2 month chart : Momentum has carried price nicely to above the trend channel. It is unlikely to stay above in the intermediate term.

2 week chart : From the 2 week chart and lower, we start seeing the possibility of a few more weeks / months of sideways to upward price action. This chart allows for price to reach the 4150 ~ 4200 level to test a shorter trend channel upper line that began in year 2009.

Weekly chart : As we move further lower to the weekly chart, we see an incomplete wave count that allows for sideways to higher movement.

3 day chart : Drilling down further to the 3 day chart, we can see price is in a small wave 4 (of sub-minuette degree). This time frame also provides us with a level where we know if we are wrong. If price declines below 3549, the wave count would need to be re-evaluated. There is likely to be a fair amount of volatility as price completes smaller 4th and 5th waves.

Daily chart : This current correction is likely to end near the 4th wave of lower degree, about 3700 ~ 3750. It does not look like a larger trend change at this time.

3 Day Moving Average Crossover : 10 EMA has remained above the 20 EMA since May 2020. The intermediate trend remains up.

Ichimoku Daily chart : Price remains above the cloud on the daily. signalling it is premature to consider a trend change at this time. Corrections remain short term buying opportunities. But a change in larger trend is coming.

S&P 500 Analysis. As on 25 Jan 2021. CMP 3841

Bottom line : The rally is not complete. It is premature to call a top. 4,100 is a likely target, at least initially.

Ichimoku chart (Daily) : Nothing bearish about this short term chart. Price is comfortably above all indicators.

3 Day chart : 10 period EMA remains comfortably above 20 EMA, also suggesting continuation of the rally.

Elliott Wave charts : The drop in March 2020 may have been wave E of an expanding triangle. Trend line resistance comes in at about 4,100 depending on when price rises to meet the upper trend line.