Nifty Pharma Analysis. As on Monday, 1 March 2021. CMP 12,050
Pharma has been teasing us, giving us false bullish hope and then declining each time. But we still expect a rally to materialize.
The larger trend is still bullish. Primary count is bullish both short and intermediate term. Alt count is short term bearish but intermediate term bullish.
Primary count : The count has been adjusted slightly to show a completed or nearly completed 1-2-1-2 pattern. This means a strong 3rd of 3rd wave rally could commence at any time. We believe that the sweetest part of the 3rd of 3rd wave up is ahead of us, and should be quite near.
Read below for important levels to confirm the 3rd of 3rd up is underway.
(The 3 day chart below is a problem. Price shows that 10 EMA has crossed below the 20 EMA which is not good for the bullish case, but it could turn out to be a false signal).
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Ichimoku Cloud : The daily chart is a concern. Price has closed below the cloud for several days. Price needs to close above the cloud to bolster the 3rd of 3rd wave is underway. Of course it is preferable if all indicators and studies are in alignment, but in this case we believe the elliott wave bullish count takes precedence over the ichimoku neutral to bearish view.
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Alternate count : This count is also intermediate term bullish, but short term bearish. A test of 11,000 is on the cards in an expanded flat correction before the larger rally resumes.
Nifty Pharma Analysis. As on 17 Feb 2021. CMP 12,689. Posted at 11:20 am.
There is hardly any change from previous post. Price is still struggling to decide it's short term path.
Given the 10 EMA above the 20 EMA on the 3 day chart, bias is still bullish. An upside break of 13,476 would almost certainly mean that price has begun a rapid move up.
Primary count : Under this count, Nifty Pharma is in the early stages of a 3rd wave rally of multiple degree of trend, which suggests a powerful rally. But we have been on the look out for that for a while, but pull backs keep occuring.
Note on the 3 day chart the 10 EMA has not crossed below the 20 EMA even once since April 2020, showing the intermediate trend remains up.
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Alternate count : This count suggests price is heading lower to test the 11,000 level in an expanded flat correction, before resuming the larger rally.
Nifty Pharma Analysis. As on 3 Feb 2021. CMP 12,737
Primary count shows short term correction appears complete in Nifty Pharma. The alternate count shows price could still possibly correct to the 11,000 level.
Intermediate picture is bullish on Nifty Pharma under both counts.
Primary count : Under this count, Nifty Pharma is in the very early stages of a 3rd wave rally of multiple degree of trend, which suggests a powerful rally. But we have been on the look out for that for a while, but pull backs keep occuring. So let's hope this is the time for Pharma to accelerate upwards.
Note on the 3 day chart the 10 EMA has not crossed below the 20 EMA even once since April 2020, showing the intermediate trend remains up.
Alternate count : This count suggests price is heading lower to test the 11,000 level in an expanded flat correction, before resuming the larger rally.
Nifty Pharma Analysis. As on Wed 27 Jan 2021. CMP 12,588. Posted at 10:55 am
Bottom line : Short term uncertain, possibly bearish. Intermediate term bullish.
Elliott Wave Count 1 : Preference was for price to remain above 12,592. Price declined to 12,390 on Jan 25.
The short term trend is now in doubt. There is also a 5 wave decline visible from 13,476 to 12,390 on the 4 hour chart. This could portend further weakness in an expanded flat in wave ii after a short rally.
The Pharma Index could decline to test 11,000 to complete wave c of ii.
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Elliott Wave Count 2 : This shows price to commence a strong rally in a 3rd wave of multiple degrees of trend.
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Daily Ichimoku chart shows price above the cloud, showing trend is still up.
3 day chart - Trend remains up as 10 EMA above the 20 EMA, showing trend is still up.
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Nifty Pharma Analysis. As on Tues, 19 Jan 2021. CMP 12,780. Posted at 2:30 pm.
Bullish against 12,592.
The immediate uptrend should continue as long as 12,592 is not violated. Nifty Pharma should continue up in a strong manner.
The wave count shows 3rd wave of 4 degrees of trend to start now. But sometimes when the wave count is looking way too bullish, we are a little careful with our expectation. That said, there is nothing bearish visible in the Pharma index.
Nifty Pharma Analysis. As on 6 Jan 2021. CMP 13,176
The short term decline on 21-22 Dec reversed immediately, bolstering the 3rd of 3rd wave rally count. The rally has moved sufficiently for us to discard the short term bearish expanded flat possibility.
At this stage, only the bullish count is on the table.
From previous posts, price is likely to take out the previous high of 14,020 and potentially reach the 20,000 level.
Dips in pharma stocks remain buying opportunities.
Only a daily close below 12,700 would have us re-evaluate this chart, but if price is in a 3rd of 3rd wave up (as we believe it is), it is unlikely to fall even this much. In fact, we would prefer a continuous gradual upmove. Even an acceleration to the upside is possible.
Nifty Pharma Analysis. As on Tues, 22 Dec 2020. CMP 12,058
Bottom line : Nifty Pharma intermediate term is bullish (based on the 5 wave impulsive rally from 6242 to 12,528). Short term is where there is doubt.
Daily Ichimoku and Trend line charts show that no important support levels have been broken, but elliott wave count 1 below shows a possible short term trend change.
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Count 1 : Price could be in an expanded flat in wave 2 to test the 11,000 level, before the wave 3 rally kicks in.
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Count 2 : This count could well still be on the table but has been weakened somewhat by yesterday's decline. It shows price in a 3rd wave up of multiple degrees of trend. But price needs to reverse recent declines very soon to put this count back on track.
Nifty Pharma Analysis. As on 3 Dec 2020. CMP 12,100.
Our previous post on Nifty Pharma 10 days ago was when price was at 11,803. Momentum remains strong and we are bullish on the Pharma index.
Primary count : Nifty pharma should be in the early stages of a 3rd wave of multiple degrees of trend (3rd of 3rd of 3rd). This could be a powerful rally, and could take price to well above the 14,000 level, and likely eventually above the 20,000 level.
From previous post "A daily close at or above the 11,900 ~ 11,950 level would result in an upward break of the green trend line of daily chart, and likely bolster this count."
Price cleared the green trend line on 1 Dec and has remained comfortably above.
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Alternate count : This count has receded further into the background and is looking quite unlikely. A break of 11,100 / 11,200 would result in a larger correction and delay the 3rd wave rally.
A rally above 12,530 would likely allow us to discard this count.
Nifty Pharma Analysis. As on 23 Nov 2020. CMP 11,803. Posted at 12 noon.
Nifty Pharma is up 2.5% so far today.
Expectation is for a 3rd of 3rd wave rally in Nifty Pharma. A daily close at or above the 11,900 ~ 11,950 level would result in an upward break of the green trend line of daily chart, and likely bolster this count.
Primary count : Nifty pharma should be in the early stages of a 3rd wave of multiple degrees of trend (3rd of 3rd of 3rd). This could be a powerful rally, and could take price to well above the 14,000 level, and likely eventually above the 20,000 level.
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Alternate count : The level of 11,005 is critical. 1 tick below that would open up a larger correction to below 10,000, and delay the expected rally by a few weeks.
Nifty Pharma Analysis. As on 11 Nov 2020. CMP 11,570. Posted at 9:30 pm.
Bottom line : We suspect Nifty Pharma is in for an explosive rally as long as 11,096 is not violated to the downside. Excellent opportunity !! 11,005 is critical level.
Primary count : Nifty pharma should be in the early stages of a 3rd wave of multiple degrees of trend (3rd of 3rd of 3rd). This should be a powerful and near vertical rally. This should take price to well above the 14,000 level, and likely eventually above the 20,000 level.
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Alternate count : The level of 11,005 is critical. 1 tick below that would open up a larger correction to below 10,000.
Nifty Pharma Index Analysis. As on 2 Nov 2020. CMP 11,170
Bottom line : Both counts are intermediate term bullish. Investors should add Pharma scrips on declines.
Minimum requirement for a correction has been met. Under one count, price could rally in a powerful 3rd of 3rd wave. The other count calls for a further correction before the rally commences. Both counts are of equal preference, hence are labelled Count 1, Count 2.. and not Primary and Alternate.
Count 1 : This count shows an aggressively bullish posture. Price has met requirement for wave ii of minuette degree. This would complete a 1-2-1-2 count in anticipation of a powerful 3rd of 3rd wave rally.
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Count 2 : Under this count, price should undergo a correction (either time or price). So a conservative correction would reach the 10,127 level (38% fibo retrace of prior rally). But it could also go deeper to the 9,000 level. The probability of a 61% correction to the 8,000 level does not appear to be probable at this time given the prior structures.
Nifty Pharma Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 22 Oct 2020. CMP 11,498
Bottom line : Probability has shifted towards a correction in the Pharma Index towards the 10,100 level (38% fibonacci retracement of the rally from 6,242 to 12,528). The larger trend remains up.
Both counts are intermediate term bullish. Investors should hold on to their pharma scrips, and consider adding on declines.
The Primary and Alternate counts from previous post have been switched to better reflect recent price action.
Primary count : Probability is that a minuette degree wave (i) is in place at 12,528. A Head & Shoulders pattern has formed with a break of the neckline on the 4 hour chart. This gives reason to believe a corrective decline has begun.
Under this count, price should undergo a correction (either time or price). So a conservative correction would reach the 10,127 level (38% fibo retrace of prior rally). But it could also go deeper to the 9,000 level. The probability of a 61% correction to the 8,000 level does not appear to be probable at this time given the prior structures.
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Alternate count : This count shows an aggressively bullish posture. Price could decline slighly from here to the 11,000 level. This would complete a 1-2-1-2 count in anticipation of a powerful 3rd of 3rd wave rally.
Nifty Pharma Analysis. As on 13 Oct 2020. CMP 12,101
The larger trend is clearly up. Short term a correction is possible.
The 12,528 level remains key. An upward breach of this level would mean wave (iii) of iii is in progress, and price should be headed higher in a strong rally.
Until 12,528 is breached, short term downside risks remain.
Ichimoku daily chart : Price has tested the ichimoku cloud from above and has held. This is bullish for the short term outlook.
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Primary count : Price could be close to commencing a 3rd of 3rd wave up. A break of 12,528 would likely mean the rally should accelerate strongly.
On the 3 day chart, the 10 EMA is healthily above the 20 EMA indicating the uptrend is in place.
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Alternate count : This is where things can get tricky.
The recent high of 12,528 could have completed a larger wave (i) of the rally from the March low of 6242. A daily close at 11,500 ~ 11,550 could mean a correction is in progress.
The larger trend is up, but in the short term, price could correct substantially in wave (ii) – either a time or price correction is possible.
