Gold USD Analysis

Gold USD Analysis. As on Saturday 6 March 2021. CMP 1700.

The decline from last post from 1860 has raised the probability of the bearish count, which is now the primary count.

Primary count : An important top is in place at 2072.  This likely represents wave B of a large 4th wave triangle.  Under this count, price is headed lower to the 1200 level in wave C of said triangle.

--

Alternate count : This count shows a new high yet to come in wave 5 but the rally from 1445 to 2072 is not easy nor convincing to label as a wave 3, hence this count is the alternate and not preferred at this stage.  Price is testing the lower trend channel line so a bounce is possible.  But if price falls straight thru, that would raise the probability even further that an important top is already in place at 2072.

Gold USD Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 20 Jan 2021. CMP 1860

Bottom line : The wave count is unclear.

We cannot rule out further new highs above 2072.  By the same token, a high could be in place in a larger wave B, and is headed lower in a long drawn choppy wave C.

Price has moved sideways to lower since Aug 2020.  A rally above 1975 would increase the probability that the rally would continue to the 2100 ~ 2150 levels.

No preference re counts.

Count 1 (Bearish) : This count argues that the larger wave B top is already in place and is heading lower to US$1,200 in wave C, that could take many many months.

—

Count 2 : This count calls for a new high above 2072.  A rally above 1975 in the near future would likely be a good signal that price is heading up to the 2100 ~ 2150 level.