BSE Power Analysis

BSE Power Analysis. As on Tues, 16 March 2021. CMP 2554. Posted at 11:20 am.

Bullish, but with caution.  Longer price remains above the 2400 level, the higher the probability of continuation of the uptrend.  But a test of 2400 is likely sooner or later.

The non-elliott wave tools are bullish, while elliott wave warns us to be cautious.  We would go with the bullish view as the elliott waves in this case can be interpreted in different ways.

On the 3 day chart, 10 EMA remains above the 20 EMA signifying the intermediate bullish trend remains in force.

--

The 2400 level remains an important level, and is resistance-turned-support.  The next major resistance is the 3200 ~ 3300 level.

BSE Power Analysis. As on 15 Feb 2021. CMP 2265. Posted at 3:45 pm

Price has followed script beautifully when the correction ended below 2,000.

The rally does not appear complete, but minimum requirement for 5th wave has been met.   Target for the rally to end, or at least pause, is apprx 2400, where there is strong resistance.

BSE Power Index Analysis. As on 13 Jan 2021. CMP 2127

Intermediate term bullish.  Short term netural.

A wave 3 minor degree temporary top could be in place or in the process of completion.

A correction to the 1950 ~ 2000 level could be the next significant move which may not be big in terms of price, but could take up the next few weeks in a sideways to lower correction.

Stronger term resistance at 2400 ~ 2430 level, which makes a longer term target for longs.

BSE Power Index Analysis. As on 30 Dec 2020. CMP 2054. Posted at 10:40 am

Previous post of 9 Dec when price was 2079 said "A correction to the 1960 ~ 2010 should be a buying opportunity."  On 22 Dec, price declined to 1951, well in line with expectation for a minuette degree 4th wave low.

Expectation is for continued sideways to higher for few more weeks.

Larger resistance levels are quite clearly defined on the monthly chart at 2425 and 3200 levels.

BSE Power Index Analysis. As on Wed, 9 Dec 2020. CMP 2079. Posted at 1:30 pm.

With price continuing to sail above our original target zone of 1800, we have re-evaluated the wave count.  The prior count is still on the table, but as an alternate.

Primary count (New) : An impulsive stair-stepping bullish structure appears to be playing out.

A correction to the 1960 ~ 2010 should be a buying opportunity.

(Note this is not a trade-able instrument, so when we talk about opportunities it means in the top few companies that constitute the largest weightage of the index).

--

Alternate count : This count calls for a correction in wave b before the rally resumes to complete a larger wave (B).

BSE Power Index Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 12 Nov 2020. CMP 1861

Target above 1800 has been met.  We are now neutral on the Power Index.

Count 1 : Note the larger count is pure hypothesis.  Wave B target has been met, but could rally further.

--

Count 2 : This count shows a decline is due but the larger rally is not complete.  Again, larger count is pure hypothesis.

BSE Power Index Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 27 Oct 2020. CMP 1710

In our post of 20 Oct, we said "Short term, a rally is expected.  Price needs to break above the green trendline with a daily close above 1650 as confirmation."

Price has quickly reached 1710.  A rally above 1766 is on the cards, likely 1800 levels.

The top 3 companies in the BSE Power Index have rallied between 3%~6% in the last 3-4 sessions.

BSE Power Index Analysis. As on 20 Oct 2020. CMP 1623

Long term structure is purely hypothetical as it is unclear.

Short term, a rally is expected.  Price needs to break above the green trendline with a daily close above 1650 as confirmation.

A target above 18,00 is a possibility.

BSE Power Index Elliott Wave Analysis.  As on 26 Aug 2020.  CMP 1750

Price has followed script well from previous post of 13 July 2020.

Price did break out from a bullish triangle.   The near term rally could be nearing an end.  A decline to roughly the 1600 level is probable, before the rally resumes towards the 1850 ~ 1950 level.

The larger time frames are not clear, so the larger counts are purely a working hypothesis for the time being.

BSE Power Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 13 July 2020. CMP 1574

BSE Power is at or near support.  The long term wave counts are open to debate and are unclear, but the daily chart could be showing a bullish triangle in a small wave (x) ready to break out to the upside.

A decline to 1525 would change the picture as price would fall below a trend line (green), but it is a small stop loss compared to the target of 1800 ~ 2000.