BSE Oil & Gas Index. As on Monday 29 March 2021. CMP 14,671.
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The BSE Oil & Gas Index is in corrective mode that is not yet complete.
Primary count : Price is in an expanded flat correction that should reach the 13,100 level before a 3rd wave rally commences.
Alternate count : Price is in wave C down of a bullish triangle that should decline to the 12,400 level.
BSE Oil & Gas Index. As on 28 Jan 2021. CMP 14,014
Bottom line : The larger bullish count still has some way up to go, but near term picture allows for further downside.
Larger trend remains up. The 3 day chart shows 10 EMA still above 20 EMA.
Primary count : Price is searching for a wave ii low before a rally in wave iii to above 16,000.
Alternate count : This count allows price to decline to below 12,500 in wave c of a bullish triangle before a thrust higher to above 18,000. This is a weekly chart, so price action is likely to be choppy. This triangle, if it plays out, could easily take up most of this year.
BSE Oil & Gas Index. As on 9 Jan 2021. CMP 14,732.
Bottom line : Bullish.
Primary count : Price appears to be rallying in 3rd wave up to 15,000 ~ 15,500 target that was identified a couple of months ago on 5 Nov 2020, when price was at 12,000 levels.
If Price is indeed in a 3rd wave up, target would be 16,300 ~ 17,000 level.
Alternate count : This triangle shows price needs to reverse lower almost immediately in wave c to keep this count valid. A rally above 14,800 would likely cause this count to be discarded.
BSE Oil & Gas Index. As on Wed 23 Dec 2020. CMP 13,704. Posted at 10:10 am.
Our previous post on this index was just 5 days ago. But the recent decline has caused the forecasted downside target to be met faster than anticipated.
One count below shows the recent correction to be complete, the other shows a more sideways kind of correction.
Note the larger counts are hypothetical, but both shorter term counts are perfectly valid and hardly any preference for one over the other.
Bottom line : Bullish on this index, whether from now or after a period of consolidation.
Count 1 : From previous post of 18 Dec when price was 14,368 "A short term wave 1 top could be in place at 14,789. Wave 2 could decline to the 12,800 ~ 13,200 level before wave 3 up commences." (On Mon, 21 Dec the decline reached 13,183, exactly into the downside range).
This count calls for price to move higher in wave iii.
Both counts point to 19,000 as target.
Count 2 : This count is far more nuanced. This calls for a triangle in wave b (sideways action) for several more weeks before price rallies in a thrust up to the 19,000 level.
BSE Oil & Gas Index Analysis. As on Friday 18 Dec 2020. CMP 14,368
Short term neutral to bearish.
Intermediate term bullish.
A short term wave 1 top could be in place at 14,789. Wave 2 could decline to the 12,800 ~ 13,200 level before wave 3 up commences.
The larger count points towards the 19,000 level as a target.
BSE Oil & Gas Index. As on 28 Nov 2020, Saturday. CMP 13,251. Posted at 9 am.
Bottom line : Intermediate term bullish, short term likely bearish. Excellent clarity and structure under both counts. We especially like it when both counts are sending the same message.
These are the same counts from previous few posts when we didn't have a preference re count. Now we have a clear preference as shown in primary count.
Primary count : A clear 5 wave impulse from 11,719 to 13,536 dictates the trend as up. But it also means in the near term a correction is likely to the 12,300 ~ 12,800 roughly, which should make a good entry on oil & gas stocks.
Given the slightly larger structure (3 day chart), target is roughly at the 15,000 ~ 15,500 level.
Alternate count : Message is the same. Short term correction and then thrust up later. This count demands a decline to below 12,126 to complete wave E of the triangle, before price thrusts up. But due to the 5 wave impulse from 11,719 (wave d should be in 3 waves, not 5), this count gets alternate status.
BSE Oil & Gas Index. As on 19 Nov 2020. CMP 13,144
Both earlier counts showed a minimum target of 13,200 (when price was at 12,058). This target has now been met with a rally of 10% since prior post of Nov 5.
Now we remain neutral to see which of the 2 below counts will get the upper hand.
There is no preference re count, so counts are shown as Count 1, Count 2 etc, and not Primary, and Alternate.
Count 1 : Wave (d) could be nearing completion / complete. This count suggests a decline to below 12,126 to complete wave E of a possible bullish triangle. Note the bullish triangle is so far a working hypothesis.
From previous post of 5 Nov " Wave (d) of this triangle is likely to rally to above 13,200, which is still 10% above current levels."
Count 2 : Price is headed up to 14,400 ~ 15,500 under this count of wave (b) of a bullish triangle.
BSE Oil & Gas Index. As on 5 Nov 2020. CMP 12,058
From previous post of 19 Oct "A decline below Oct 15 low of 11,719 would invalidate the short term bullish outlook. "
The 11,719 low survived.. barely, as it turned out. Price almost tested it when it declined to 11,728. But has rallied since.
The bullish preference remains the best bet, esp if 11,719 remains intact.
No preference re count below, as both counts are essentially pointing higher (or sideways to higher).
Count 1 : Wave (d) of this triangle is likely to rally to above 13,200, which is still 10% above current levels.
Count 2 : Price is headed up to 14,400 ~ 15,500 under this count.
BSE Oil & Gas Analysis. As on 19 Oct 2020. CMP 12,086. Posted at 11:25 am.
We have been waiting for a signal that the correction is complete. Today's gap up is probably that signal, and is likely to be a break-away gap. This means Friday's high of 11,933 (16 Oct, 2020) should NOT be tested anytime soon. Price should continue rallying strongly from now.
There is a high probability that Oil & Gas companies are set to move higher. Both counts show price within complex structures that have likely completed downward corrections.
A decline below Oct 16 high of 11,933 is not preferred.
A decline below Oct 15 low of 11,719 would invalidate the short term bullish outlook.
There is no preference re counts below as both are essentially pointing higher.
Count 1 : Price is headed up to 14,400 ~ 15,500 under this count. Price has gapped up today above a downward trend channel line on the daily chart, bolstering the bullish stance.
Count 2 : This count is equally valid, but the 1st target is lower at roughly 13,500. Intermediate term both counts have targets much higher.
BSE Oil & Gas Index. As on 1 Oct 2020. CMP 12,359
From the very long term charts (each candle 1 – 2 months), the trend is up. But that is where the clarity ends, as intermediate term and short term picture is not clear.
There is no preference re counts below.
Count 1 : This is the most aggressively bullish interpretation of available counts, and shows price (possibly) has completed wave a of a bullish triangle (wave b in blue) on the 2 week chart. But really speaking, this is more a hypothetical wave count at this stage. This blue wave b could easily not be a triangle and could decline to the 10,000 level as well.
For the projected path on below to be bolstered, price needs to rally to 14,500 ~ 14,500 in a small wave b of the blue wave (b) triangle.
We just wait, watch and track the price movements from time to time, and wait for greater short term clarity to emerge.
Count 2 : Price could be headed lower in wave c of a bullish triangle to the 11,500 level. Again, this is hypothetical and pattern could easily change to something else.