Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Friday 26 March 2021. CMP 33,350. Posted at 11:20 am.
With yesterday's low at 32,422, a temporary low is likely in place. The sub-divisions count quite well from 36,497 to 32,422.
A choppy rally to the 35,500 level is likely on the cards in wave C up of a bearish triangle.
Eventually, bank nifty is expected to commence a decline to the 29,500 ~ 31,000 level, but that is still some weeks away, as the triangle needs to be completed.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Tues, 23 March 2021. CMP 33,784. Posted at 10:40 am.
The view remains bullish short term to take price to the 36,000 level. But slightly longer term price appears to be in a bearish triangle.
That said, bank nifty has hardly moved much from the recent low of 33,362, in contrast to Nifty.
Short term trading on Bank Nifty currently is tougher than Nifty as new lows below 33,362 cannot be ruled out.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 19 March 2021. CMP 34,100. Posted at 3:40 pm.
The larger correction is still expected to reach 31,000 ~ 32,000.
The short term is likely bullish, in accord with Nifty 50.
But the short term pattern is not clear. Our best read at this time is price has just begun wave C up today (of a bearish triangle), which is expected to reach the 36,000 level.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 16 March 2021. CMP 35,270. Posted at 10:45 am.
The bearish triangle has extended even further. This is the problem with trading triangles. They can extend and frustrate.
Short term bullish to 36,500.
Price is headed up in wave C of a triangle. Wave B appears complete at 34,431.
For this count to remain valid, price needs to remain above 34,431. A re-evaluation of the wave count would be required if price dips first below 34,431.
The larger correction is expected to complete at about the 31,500 ~ 32,000 level.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Sat, 13 March 2021. CMP 35,496. Posted at 11 am.
The sudden decline yesterday afternoon should not have come as surprise. It has been an expected correction.
The Bank Nifty chart is reasonably clear at this time.
On the 2 hour / 4 hour chart, a bearish triangle is in progress, and has extended as triangles tend to do.
Price is in wave D down that should end above 34,662 before a wave E rally (to complete the wave B triangle), and then down again to below 32,000
Likely end to this wave 4 larger correction is about 31,000 ~ 32,000
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 8 March 2021. CMP 35,400. Posted at 11:10 am.
Bottom line : Near term bearish against 37,220.
Primary count : A bearish triangle looks complete, and appears ready to thrust lower. 1st target is about 33,100, but could correct to the 31,000 level.
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Alternate count : This count shows a possible new high to come in the near term. Price needs to remain above 34,658, but that is not far away at all. The other reason this count remains an alternate is price is below the 18 Simple Moving Average on the daily chart (as a first step towards a bullish resolution, price needs to remain above this 18 period SMA).
Between the 2 counts, the primary count is in sync with nifty 50.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Monday, 1 March 2021. CMP 35,360. Posted at 12 noon.
Bank Nifty is a tough call at this stage. Both counts are possible, though we are tilting more towards count 2.
Count 1 : Another high to come in Bank Nifty. This current decline appears to be wave 4 of micro degree. Price needs to find its footing from current levels and begin a rally to new highs above 37,700.
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Count 2 : This count is more in line with Nifty. This shows a wave 3 top already in place at 37,708, and price is in a 4th wave down to the 30,000 ~ 32,000 level.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 22 Feb 2021. CMP 35,250. Posted at 2:20 pm.
The Bank Nifty chart is not as clear as Nifty at this time, but one of the probabilities is another high yet to come towards the 40,000 -42,000 level. No preference between counts, but Count 2 is more in line with Nifty.
Count 1 : Another high to come in Bank Nifty. This current decline appears to be wave 4 of micro degree. The 18 day Simple Moving Average may act as support at about the 35,000 level.
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Count 2 : This count is more in line with Nifty. This shows a wave 3 top already in place at 37,708, and price is in a 4th wave down to the 30,000 ~ 32,000 level.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 15 Feb 2021. CMP 37,306. Posted at 5:45 pm.
Price is rallying as forecast towards the 40,000 ~ 42,000 level, as mentioned in previous posts.
Price is unlikely to test the 35,428 level in the near future, and could even continue straight up from here as it is in a 3rd of 3rd wave rally.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Wed 10 Feb 2021. CMP 35,800. Posted at 10:40 am.
Bank Nifty appears to be consolidating ahead of further advances.
The wave count suggests continued strength in a 3rd of 3rd wave to the 40,000 ~ 42,000 level.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 5 Feb 2021. CMP 3,290. Posted at 11 am.
Continued strength in the Bank Nifty has now increased probability substantially that Bank Nifty is in the early stages of a 3rd of 3rd wave rally. This gives us a target zone of 40,000 ~ 42,000.
In financial markets, as in life, anything can happen. But the rally since 29,500 has the signs of a 3rd of 3rd wave.
From previous post of 1 Feb when price was 33,000 "This week, or maybe even the next day or 2, should clarify which of these counts is playing out as both counts demand almost immediate action, but in different directions."
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 1 Feb 2021. CMP 33,089. Posted at 4:20 pm.
What a day !!
An 8% spike today on the Bank Nifty has raised the probability of our Alternate count playing out, i.e. of a 3rd of 3rd wave.
But there is still a possibility of the triangle playing out.
This week, or maybe even the next day or 2, should clarify which of these counts is playing out as both counts demand almost immediate action, but in different directions.
Count 1 : 3rd of 3rd wave in progress. The 37,000 ~ 38,000 level is minimum requirement under this count, and likely the 40,000 ~ 42,000 level is a more plausible target.
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Count 2 : Today's high of 33,285 could still be wave B of a 4th wave triangle. Under this count, price needs to commence a correction this week, likely back to the 30,000 level.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 29 Jan 2021. CMP 30,900. Posted at 2:40 pm.
Yesterday's low at 29,695 appears to have completed wave C of a triangle. Small new lows cannot be ruled out under the triangle count. Price is likely in a choppy but upward direction in wave D of the triangle.
From previous post of 27 Jan morning when price was 31,200 " Price appears to be in wave C down of a possible 4th wave triangle to below 30,000. The larger rally does not appear complete."
An expanded flat, while possible, is less probable at this stage.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Wed 27 Jan 2021. CMP 31,200
The primary count has been bolstered by the correction in the last few days. Price is likely in a wave 4 correction. Under either count, the larger rally does not appear complete.
Primary count : Price appears to be in wave C down of a possible 4th wave triangle to below 30,000. The larger rally does not appear complete.
On 18 Jan we said " Wave 3 of minor degree could be complete at 32,719. Wave 4 correction could be in progress that could continue for several weeks, eventually ending near the 29,000 level."
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Alternate count : This count is more bullish, and shows price could resume the uptrend soon, which would result in an eventual target of 37,000 ~ 38,000.
On the 3 day chart, 10 EMA remains above the 20 EMA signalling no change in the intermediate trend.
But on the daily chart, price is below the 18 period Simple Moving Average.
Bottom line : If price is getting ready for a strong advance in a 3rd of 3rd wave, it needs to get going soon.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Monday, 18 Jan 2021. CMP 31,968. Posted at 12:20 pm.
Both counts show the larger trend as up.
Short term is where the picture is unclear. One count shows a correction is underway in the near term, while the other shows continuation of the rally expected.
Primary : Wave 3 of minor degree could be complete at 32,719. Wave 4 correction could be in progress that could continue for several weeks, eventually ending near the 29,000 level.
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Alternate : This count shows price could resume the uptrend, which would result in an eventual target of 37,000 ~ 38,000.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 13 Jan 2021. CMP 32,461
With Bank Nifty finally making a new all time high, the wave structure still does not look complete. In fact, far from it.
Probability has shifted to price being in a 3rd of 3rd wave rally.
Larger target can be assumed to be the upper trend channel of the weekly chart at above 38,000.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 5 Jan 2020. CMP 31,120
Under both counts, the larger rally does not appear complete. Dips are buying opportunities.
Primary count : Price could be in an intermediate degree 4th wave correction, either a triangle or flat. The 28,500 level should offer support in case of a decline.
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Alternate count : This count is very bullish, and shows price could be in a 3rd of 3rd wave to the upside.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Monday 28 Dec 2020. CMP 30,770. Posted at 10 am.
Primary count : The uptrend has been strong. The larger rally is not complete. But there is a reasonable possibility price is in a wave 4 correction.
This recent rally since 22 Dec low of 28,977 could be wave B of a triangle or flat.
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Alternate count : It is possible a wave B top is in place at 30,945. This calls for a choppy decline to the 20,000 levels over the next few months. Structurally, this count is not as sound as the Primary. Further evidence required to be more confident in this count.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Monday, 21 Dec 2020. CMP 30,200. Posted at 1:10 pm.
Bottom line : Caution. A possible temporary top in place at 30,945.
Primary count : On the hourly chart, an ending diagonal could have formed to complete a 3rd wave. Under this count, price should decline rapidly below 29,500 in wave 4. On completion of a correction wave 4, price would eventually rally to new highs in wave 5.
A rally above 30,945 would negate this immediate bearish outlook.
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Alternate count : It is possible a wave B top is in place at 30,945. This calls for a choppy decline to the 20,000 levels over the next few months. Structurally, this count is not as sound as the Primary. Further evidence to be more confident in this count.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Monday, 14 Dec 2020. CMP 30,700. Posted at 10:50 am.
As long as 29,150 is not violated to the downside, continuation of the uptrend is expected.
Otherwise, no change from previous post of 8 Dec 2020.
Primary count : A 4th wave bullish triangle of minor degree appears complete, and price should begin a thrust up. The minimum target expected for this thrust is above 32,000.
If wave 5 = 0.618 of wave 1, thrust up should end at about 32,200.
If wave 5 = wave 1, thrust up should end at 33,500 ~ 34,000.
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Alternate count : Price appears to have one more high to come, likely at the 32,000. But this count is not as clear as the primary count.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Tues, 8 Dec 2020. CMP 30,255. Posted at 10:35 am.
In the short term, we are still expecting further bullishness under either count. Both counts show a triangle formation on the 4 hour chart that should result in a thrust up.
Primary count : A 4th wave bullish triangle of minor degree appears complete, and price should begin a thrust up. The minimum target expected for this thrust is above 32,000.
If wave 5 = 0.618 of wave 1, thrust up should end at about 32,200.
If wave 5 = wave 1, thrust up should end at 33,500 ~ 34,000.
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Alternate count : Price appears to have one more high to come, likely at the 32,000. But this count is not as clear as the primary count.
Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Thurs 3 Dec 2020. CMP 29,625. Posted at 9:50 am.
Momentum remains with the bulls. A break of 29,000 may forewarn of a larger decline. Until then, remain bullish.
Primary count : A minor 4th wave bullish triangle appears complete, and could be readying for a thrust up to the 30,700 ~ 31,500 level.
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Alternate count : This count shows a possible top already in place in the form of a wave B (3 day chart). On the 30 minute chart, a possible 5 wave impulse down and a potential head & shoulders pattern could be forewarning of a decline. A break of the 29,150 level is required to provide confidence in this count.
