Bank Nifty Analysis

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Monday, 1 March 2021. CMP 35,360. Posted at 12 noon.

Bank Nifty is a tough call at this stage.  Both counts are possible, though we are tilting more towards count 2.

Count 1 : Another high to come in Bank Nifty.  This current decline appears to be wave 4 of micro degree.  Price needs to find its footing from current levels and begin a rally to new highs above 37,700.

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Count 2 : This count is more in line with Nifty. This shows a wave 3 top already in place at 37,708, and price is in a 4th wave down to the 30,000 ~ 32,000 level.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 22 Feb 2021. CMP 35,250. Posted at 2:20 pm.

The Bank Nifty chart is not as clear as Nifty at this time, but one of the probabilities is another high yet to come towards the 40,000 -42,000 level.  No preference between counts, but Count 2 is more in line with Nifty.

Count 1 : Another high to come in Bank Nifty.  This current decline appears to be wave 4 of micro degree.  The 18 day Simple Moving Average may act as support at about the 35,000 level.

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Count 2 : This count is more in line with Nifty. This shows a wave 3 top already in place at 37,708, and price is in a 4th wave down to the 30,000 ~ 32,000 level.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 15 Feb 2021. CMP 37,306. Posted at 5:45 pm.

Price is rallying as forecast towards the 40,000 ~ 42,000 level, as mentioned in previous posts.

Price is unlikely to test the 35,428 level in the near future, and could even continue straight up from here as it is in a 3rd of 3rd wave rally.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Wed 10 Feb 2021. CMP 35,800. Posted at 10:40 am.

Bank Nifty appears to be consolidating ahead of further advances.

The wave count suggests continued strength in a 3rd of 3rd wave to the 40,000 ~ 42,000 level.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 5 Feb 2021. CMP 3,290. Posted at 11 am.

Continued strength in the Bank Nifty has now increased probability substantially that Bank Nifty is in the early stages of a 3rd of 3rd wave rally.  This gives us a target zone of 40,000 ~ 42,000.

In financial markets, as in life, anything can happen. But the rally since 29,500 has the signs of a 3rd of 3rd wave.

From previous post of 1 Feb when price was 33,000 "This week, or maybe even the next day or 2, should clarify which of these counts is playing out as both counts demand almost immediate action, but in different directions."

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 1 Feb 2021. CMP 33,089. Posted at 4:20 pm.

What a day !!

An 8% spike today on the Bank Nifty has raised the probability of our Alternate count playing out, i.e. of a 3rd of 3rd wave.

But there is still a possibility of the triangle playing out.

This week, or maybe even the next day or 2, should clarify which of these counts is playing out as both counts demand almost immediate action, but in different directions.

Count 1 :  3rd of 3rd wave in progress.  The 37,000 ~ 38,000 level is minimum requirement under this count, and likely the 40,000 ~ 42,000 level is a more plausible target.

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Count 2  : Today's high of 33,285 could still be wave B of a 4th wave triangle.  Under this count, price needs to commence a correction this week, likely back to the 30,000 level.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 29 Jan 2021. CMP 30,900. Posted at 2:40 pm.

Yesterday's low at 29,695 appears to have completed wave C of a triangle.  Small new lows cannot be ruled out under the triangle count.  Price is likely in a choppy but upward direction in wave D of the triangle.

From previous post of 27 Jan morning when price was 31,200 " Price appears to be in wave C down of a possible 4th wave triangle to below 30,000.  The larger rally does not appear complete."

An expanded flat, while possible, is less probable at this stage.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Wed 27 Jan 2021.  CMP 31,200

The primary count has been bolstered by the correction in the last few days.  Price is likely in a wave 4 correction.  Under either count, the larger rally does not appear complete.

Primary count :  Price appears to be in wave C down of a possible 4th wave triangle to below 30,000.  The larger rally does not appear complete.

On 18 Jan we said " Wave 3 of minor degree could be complete at 32,719.  Wave 4 correction could be in progress that could continue for several weeks, eventually ending near the 29,000 level."

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Alternate count :  This count is more bullish, and shows price could resume the uptrend soon, which would result in an eventual target of 37,000 ~ 38,000.

On the 3 day chart, 10 EMA remains above the 20 EMA signalling no change in the intermediate trend.

But on the daily chart, price is below the 18 period Simple Moving Average.

Bottom line : If price is getting ready for a strong advance in a 3rd of 3rd wave, it needs to get going soon.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Monday, 18 Jan 2021. CMP 31,968. Posted at 12:20 pm.

Both counts show the larger trend as up.

Short term is where the picture is unclear.  One count shows a correction is underway in the near term, while the other shows continuation of the rally expected.

Primary : Wave 3 of minor degree could be complete at 32,719.  Wave 4 correction could be in progress that could continue for several weeks, eventually ending near the 29,000 level.

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Alternate :  This count shows price could resume the uptrend, which would result in an eventual target of 37,000 ~ 38,000.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 13 Jan 2021. CMP 32,461

With Bank Nifty finally making a new all time high, the wave structure still does not look complete.  In fact, far from it.

Probability has shifted to price being in a 3rd of 3rd wave rally.

Larger target can be assumed to be the upper trend channel of the weekly chart at above 38,000.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 5 Jan 2020. CMP 31,120

Under both counts, the larger rally does not appear complete.  Dips are buying opportunities.

Primary count : Price could be in an intermediate degree 4th wave correction, either a triangle or flat.  The 28,500 level should offer support in case of a decline.

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Alternate count : This count is very bullish, and shows price could be in a 3rd of 3rd wave to the upside.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Monday 28 Dec 2020. CMP 30,770.  Posted at 10 am.

Primary count : The uptrend has been strong. The larger rally is not complete.  But there is a reasonable possibility price is in a wave 4 correction.

This recent rally since 22 Dec low of 28,977 could be wave B of a triangle or flat.

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Alternate count : It is possible a wave B top is in place at 30,945.  This calls for a choppy decline to the 20,000 levels over the next few months.  Structurally, this count is not as sound as the Primary.  Further evidence required to be more confident in this count.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Monday, 21 Dec 2020. CMP 30,200.  Posted at 1:10 pm.

Bottom line : Caution.  A possible temporary top in place at 30,945.

Primary count : On the hourly chart, an ending diagonal could have formed to complete a 3rd wave.  Under this count, price should decline rapidly below 29,500 in wave 4.   On completion of a correction wave 4, price would eventually rally to new highs in wave 5.

A rally above 30,945 would negate this immediate bearish outlook.

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Alternate count : It is possible a wave B top is in place at 30,945.  This calls for a choppy decline to the 20,000 levels over the next few months.  Structurally, this count is not as sound as the Primary.  Further evidence to be more confident in this count.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Monday, 14 Dec 2020.  CMP 30,700. Posted at 10:50 am.

As long as 29,150 is not violated to the downside, continuation of the uptrend is expected.

Otherwise, no change from previous post of 8 Dec 2020.

Primary count :  A 4th wave bullish triangle of minor degree appears complete, and price should begin a thrust up.  The minimum target expected for this thrust is above 32,000.

If wave 5 = 0.618 of wave 1, thrust up should end at about 32,200.

If wave 5 = wave 1, thrust up should end at 33,500 ~ 34,000.

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Alternate count : Price appears to have one more high to come, likely at the 32,000.  But this count is not as clear as the primary count.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Tues, 8 Dec 2020. CMP 30,255.   Posted at 10:35 am.

In the short term, we are still expecting further bullishness under either count.  Both counts show a triangle formation on the 4 hour chart that should result in a thrust up.

Primary count : A 4th wave bullish triangle of minor degree appears complete, and price should begin a thrust up.  The minimum target expected for this thrust is above 32,000.

If wave 5 = 0.618 of wave 1, thrust up should end at about 32,200.

If wave 5 = wave 1, thrust up should end at 33,500 ~ 34,000.

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Alternate count : Price appears to have one more high to come, likely at the 32,000.  But this count is not as clear as the primary count.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on Thurs 3 Dec 2020. CMP 29,625.  Posted at 9:50 am.

Momentum remains with the bulls.  A break of 29,000 may forewarn of a larger decline.  Until then, remain bullish.

Primary count : A minor 4th wave bullish triangle appears complete, and could be readying for a thrust up to the 30,700 ~ 31,500 level.

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Alternate count : This count shows a possible top already in place in the form of a wave B (3 day chart). On the 30 minute chart, a possible 5 wave impulse down and a potential head & shoulders pattern could be forewarning of a decline.   A break of the 29,150 level is required to provide confidence in this count.

Bank Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 27 Nov 2020, Friday. CMP 29,500. Posted at 10:15 am.

Neutral.

Momentum is with the bulls.  We suggest a more cautious outlook, as one of the counts below shows a possible top complete / completing.

Count 1 : This shows price in a minor wave 4 correction (either a triangle or flat).   If a triangle, price would move sideways before thrusting higher.  If a flat, price would test the 27,700 level before resuming the uptrend.

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Count 2 : This count shows price completing a wave B top.  The 10 minute chart shows a possible 5 wave impulse down.  This is a very short time frame, so we need this decline to continue further to give respectability to this count.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 21 Nov 2020, Saturday. CMP 28,903

The very short term picture is clear.  Bearish for at least a decline below 28,582 as there is an impulsive 5 wave down on the 15 minute chart.

On a slightly larger time frame, the only question is whether an intermediate degree wave 3 top is in place or a minor degree wave 3 top.

Either way, under both counts, new highs above 29,782 in wave 5 lie ahead.

No preference re count.

Count 1 :  Intermediate degree wave 3 top in place.  Consolidation / Correction for a few weeks on the cards.

• On the 10~ 15 minute chart, 5 waves down dictate at least the very short term trend as down.
• The larger count shows an intermediate degree wave 3 top in place at 29,782.
• Implication of this means count is that price could decline towards the 25,000 level in intermediate degree wave 4 over a period of few weeks.

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Count 2 : Minor degree wave 3 top in place.  Consolidation / Correction for a few days on the cards.

• On the 10~ 15 minute chart, 5 waves down dictate at least the very short term trend as down.
• The larger count shows a minor degree wave 3 top in place at 29,782.
• Implication of this means count is that price could decline towards the 27,700~ - 28,200 level in minor degree wave 4 over a period of few days.

Bank Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 18 Nov 2020. CMP 29,387

A correction is expected in the near term to the 27,000 ~ 28,000 level.  Wave 3 of minor degree is complete / nearing completion.  Minor Wave 3 has reached the 200% fibonacci extention of wave 1 (after having breezed past the 161.8% extention).

The larger uptrend is clearly not complete.  It is likely Bank Nifty will eventually make new all time highs above 32,613.

Bank Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 11 Nov 2020. CMP 28,606. Posted at 9:10 am.

Our previous Bank Nifty post was 2 trading sessions ago 9 Nov at 10 am, when price was at 27,300 "This near term rally is in sub-minuette degree wave iii that could reach the 28,000 level.  A decline below 26,000 appears unlikely in the near term".

Under both counts below, the larger rally is not complete.

There is no preference re count.  Both are essentially the same but with some variations.

Count 1 : Price is within a minor degree wave iii (blue) that is not complete.  Momentum is strong.  In case of a correction, Price could decline sharply to the 26,000 level in a minuette degree wave iv (green) of wave iii (blue), before resuming the rally.

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Count 2 : This count makes more sense from the 4 hour chart than it's own daily chart.  This shows price could decline to the 27,000 level in subminuette degree wave iv before rallying resumes.

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161.8% Fibonacci Extention : Notice that the 161% extention of both intermediate degree wave 1 and minor degree wave 1 is roughly at the 28,000 level.  So price is ripe for a correction.  Whether it will happen with momentum so strong is unknown at this time.

Bank Nifty Analysis on 9 Nov 2020.  CMP 27,300.  Posted at 10:00 ~ 10:10 am.

Bottom line : With Nifty 50 making new all time highs, and likely heading towards 13,000, it is premature to call an end to the Bank Nifty rally.  Bank Nifty has rallied 7% since our previous post 6 days ago.

From previous posts "Price is either in a wave C up or wave iii up (of minute degree).  If it is wave iii, then Bank Nifty could reach 27,000 before wave iii is finished." 

The slope of the recent advance in the past week suggests the rally is wave iii (and not wave C).

This near term rally is in sub-minuette degree wave iii that could reach the 28,000 level.  A decline below 26,000 appears unlikely in the near term.

Bank Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 3 Nov 2020. CMP 25,466. Posted at 10:05 ~ 10:15 am.

For well over a month, the wave count has shown the probability was for a new high above 25,228 (high of Aug 31).  We have labelled every twist and turn fairly accurately and this rally to this morning's high of 25,502 comes as no surprise.

Minimum target of a new high above 25,228 has been achieved !!

Now what ?

We now move to a more neutral view.

Price is either in a wave C up or wave iii up (of minute degree).  If it is wave iii, then Bank Nifty could reach 27,000 before wave iii is finished.  But if wave C, then the end of this rally is near.

We will now wait to see how the structure unfolds over the coming days and weeks to decide whether to turn bullish, bearish, or stay neutral.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 30 Oct 2020. CMP 24,190

Bank Nifty could be providing us a clue as to where Nifty is heading short term.  A 4th wave triangle may be complete at 23,825, but further small new lows cannot be ruled out.

Target remains above 25,228, likely 25,500 level.

Once Bank Nifty makes a new high above 25,228, our bullish stance on Bank Nifty may change to neutral.

For longer term wave counts, see previous tabs.

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Alternate count : We cannot yet rule out this count that a wave B high is in place already at 25,298, but we think it is unlikely at this stage.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 26 Oct 2020. CMP 24,075. Posted at 5:05 pm.

Ideally, a minuette degree wave (iv) correction is complete at today's low of 23,879, but further small lows cannot be ruled out.

We are looking for a rally to commence shortly to above 24,821, and likely to above the Aug 31 high of 25,298.

Once Bank Nifty makes a new high above 25,298, our bullish stance on Bank Nifty may change to neutral.

For longer term wave counts, see previous tabs.

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Alternate count : We cannot yet rule out this count that a wave B high is in place already at 25,298, but we think it is unlikely at this stage.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 22 Oct 2020. CMP 24,500. Posted at 9:45 am.

Our previous post when Bank Nifty was at 23,860 we said "Short term target is 24,187 to 24,800 to complete this small wave (5) of micro degree."

Bank Nifty had a good run in the last 3 days, rallying 1,000 points, and appears to have completed micro degree wave v of (iii) at 24,821.

Price is likely to consolidate between 24,000 and 24,850 in the short term, in a minuette degree wave (iv).  Note that price is free to decline to the 23,000 level without changing the pattern.

Eventually the target is above 25,298, nearer to 26,000.

If rally accelerates, then probability will be bolstered that price is in wave iii to the upside (which would open up possibility of new all time highs).  Until that happens, we are assuming a more bearish outcome where the current rally is wave C which would end roughly around 26,000.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 19 Oct 2020. CMP 23,860. Posted between 9:35 am ~ 9:45 am IST.

Primary count : Price is following script, and appears to be in a small wave (5) up of minuette degree wave (iii).  Short term target is 24,187 to 24,800 to complete this small wave (5) of micro degree.

We prefer not to see price decline below 22,982 (wave 4 of micro degree).  A decline first below 22,766 would invalidate the short term count.  Eventually, a high above 25,298 is expected under this primary count.

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Alternate count : Price could be in a wave c down of a triangle that could take price down to the 18,000 level.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 13 Oct 2020. CMP 23,736

The rally in Bank Nifty does not look complete.  Price should rally in a small wave 5 of iii.

1st target is 24,500 ~ 25,000.

2nd target is above 25,228.

We would not like to see a decline below 22,766 as that complicates the current picture.

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Alternate count : Price could be in a wave c down of a triangle that could take price down to the 18,000 level.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 8 Oct 2020. CMP 23,150. Posted at 9:43 am.

Price is continuing it's strong rally, and is on course towards a high above 25,228.  There is no change from previous posts.

The bearish alternate count has receded further into the background as price has continued it's strong rally.  Technically, it remains on the table, but there is no evidence to support a trend change for now (corrections are certainly possible).

A decline below 21,811 (subminuette degree wave i high of the recent rally) has become highly improbable under this count.

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Alternate count : Price could be in a wave c down of a triangle that could take price down to the 18,000 level.

Bank Nifty Analysis. As on 30 Sep 2020. CMP 21,400. Posted at 2:20 pm.

Bullish as long as price does not close on a daily basis below 20,900, which is strong support (green line below on the daily chart).

Primary count : An expanded flat could be complete at last week’s low of 20,404.  Price is currently rallying in wave 3 (or wave C) to above 25,228.

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Alternate count : Price could be in a wave c down of a triangle that could take price down to the 18,000 level.