USD / INR outlook

USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 22 April 2020. CMP 76.76

Bottom line : Short term possible reversal.  Read conclusion at the end.

We start off with the top down larger time frame charts.

Monthly chart.

Price is likely in a larger wave 4.  The strongest point about this chart is the lower trend channel line that began in year 2011.  Price has bounced off of it several times.  Only a break of this would render price action bearish (rupee strength).

Notice wave 2 of the same degree took up 28 months.  If wave 4 takes up the same amount of time, it should carry to early 2021.  Price is likely in an expanded flat or bullish triangle, with the triangle having an preferential edge.

Weekly and 2 week chart.  Wave B possibly nearing an end.

2 day chart :  This is where one notices 3 features that show at least the short term rally in USD / INR is nearing an end.

  • Ending Diagonal formation.  Notice the wedge shape.
  • Volume declining as higher highs are being made.
  • MACD negative divergence as higher highs are being made.

Read conclusion below.

 

Conclusion : In the near term, price appears to be reaching a reversal juncture.   But in the intermediate term, as long as price remains in the trend channel that began in year 2011, USD / INR remains bullish (weakening rupee).  The lower trend channel comes in at about roughly 72 level, so this is a rough area of strong support.

A bullish triangle as a larger wave 4 would fit the structure perfectly, as well as take up the requisite time (to early to mid 2021) before price is ready to begin a larger degree thrust to the upside.  See below weekly chart.