USD / INR Analysis

USD / INR Analysis. As on Sat 4 Dec 2021.  CMP 75.22. Posted at 10 am.

Bottom line : Larger picture, USD / INR remains in a large bullish triangle that began in Oct 2018.  Longer term INR is expected to weaken.  But this triangle is only about 55 ~ 70% complete depending upon the count.  Only a rally above 77 would warn that the break out has begun.

There is no preference re count as both have an almost equal weightage with a very slight preference towards Count 1.  But this could change in a heart beat.

Count 1 : Price is headed up to complete wave D of this large bullish triangle to above 75.665 but below 77.  This would be followed by Wave E to the downside, which would complete the larger wave (4) bullish triangle and set the stage for a 5 wave impulse in USD / INR.

A rally above 75.67 within the next couple of weeks would further bolster the probability of this count.


Count 2 : This shows that price is still in wave C to the downside. This complex sideways action could result in taking price to the 71 level to complete wave C of the larger bullish triangle.