USD / INR Analysis. As on Sat 4 Dec 2021. CMP 75.22. Posted at 10 am.
Bottom line : Larger picture, USD / INR remains in a large bullish triangle that began in Oct 2018. Longer term INR is expected to weaken. But this triangle is only about 55 ~ 70% complete depending upon the count. Only a rally above 77 would warn that the break out has begun.
There is no preference re count as both have an almost equal weightage with a very slight preference towards Count 1. But this could change in a heart beat.
Count 1 : Price is headed up to complete wave D of this large bullish triangle to above 75.665 but below 77. This would be followed by Wave E to the downside, which would complete the larger wave (4) bullish triangle and set the stage for a 5 wave impulse in USD / INR.
A rally above 75.67 within the next couple of weeks would further bolster the probability of this count.
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Count 2 : This shows that price is still in wave C to the downside. This complex sideways action could result in taking price to the 71 level to complete wave C of the larger bullish triangle.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Thurs 11 Nov 2021. CMP 74.47. Posted at 12:50 pm.
Bottom line : Neutral short & intermediate term. Larger trend remains towards weakening rupee.
No preference re count. Both are equally possible. Price is in a larger 4th wave bullish triangle (see weekly, 2 week, and monthly chart)
Count 1 : Price could still decline to the 70 - 71 level to complete wave C (in red) of the larger bullish triangle. A rally above 76 first would likely create a preference for Count 2.
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Count 2 : Price in wave D to the upside that should end below 77. On completion of wave D, a decline back to the 73-74 range would be the expectation for wave E. 
USD / INR Analysis. As on Thurs 7 Oct 2021. CMP 74.73. Posted at 6:10 pm.
Bottom line : The recent rally above 75 has caused us to switch the alternate count to primary.
Primary count : Price is likely in wave D to the upside of a large bullish triangle. Wave D should end between 76 ~ 77. The alternate count, while slightly lower probability now, is still very much on the table.
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Alternate count : This was our primary count for a long time, and we are reluctant to let it go, simply because it is better fit. This shows price still needs to make a low at about 70 to complete wave C. As long as price doesn't exceed 75.57 first, this is still possible.
USD / INR Analysis. As on 30 Aug 2021. CMP 73.47. Posted at 12:10 pm.
Bottom line : Rupee strength to the 70 level. From earlier posts "Preference is for USD / INR to decline (rupee strength) to the 70 level, But a touch above 75.57 would shift preference to the Alternate count."
Primary count : Rupee appears headed lower to the 70 level, (69.50 ~ 71 level) to complete wave C of a larger bullish triangle. Newer subscribers will notice the hypothesis of a large 4th wave bullish triangle has been clear since well over a year.
Alternate count : This count shows wave C of the larger triangle is already complete, and price is in wave D to the upside, which would reach anywhere between 75.57 to 77, before wave E down of the triangle commences.
Under this count, 72.25 would act as a floor, and should not be violated at all.
The only reason this is the alternate count is because wave C is slightly skewed to the upside. This count is still a very good one, and there is not much to choose between the two.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Friday 6 Aug 2021. CMP 74.15. Posted at 3:20 pm.
Not much change from previous post. 75.57 remains key level. Preference is for USD / INR to decline (rupee strength) to the 70 level. But a touch above 75.57 would shift preference to the Alternate count.
Primary count : A temporary top is possibly in place at 75.03. Small new highs cannot be ruled out as long as price remains below 75.57. Under this count, price should decline (rupee strength) to the 69.50 ~ 71 level to complete wave C of a larger bullish triangle.
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Alternate count : This count shows wave C of the larger triangle is already complete, and price is in wave D to the upside, which would reach anywhere between 75.57 to 77, before wave E down of the triangle commences.
Under this count, 72.25 would act as a floor.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Tues 13 July 2021. CMP 74.50. Posted at 1:50 pm.
From previous post of 11 June when price was 73.05, "A temporary floor is likely at the 72.25 ~ 72.35 level. Rupee should weaken to 73.50 ~ 75 over the next few weeks."
In less than 3 weeks, on 2 July, USD / INR rallied to 74.88.
It is decision time for USD / INR. 75.57 remains key level. Preference is for USD / INR to start declining from here (rupee strength) to the 70 level. But a touch above 75.57 would shift preference to the Alternate count.
Primary count : A temporary top is possibly in place at 74.88. Small new highs cannot be ruled out as long as price remains below 75.57. Under this count, price should soon commence a decline (rupee strength) to the 69.50 ~ 71 level to complete wave C of a larger bullish triangle.
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Alternate count : This count shows wave C of the larger triangle is already complete, and price is in wave D to the upside, which would reach anywhere between 75.57 to 77, before wave E down of the triangle commences.
Under this count, 72.25 would act as a floor.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Friday 11 June 2021. CMP 73.05. Posted at 5 pm.
A temporary floor is likely at the 72.25 ~ 72.35 level. Rupee should weaken to 73.50 ~ 75 over the next few weeks.
Primary count : Wave (a) of Wave Y is likely complete at 72.31. Wave B should take USD INR to 73.50 ~ 75 before rupee strength to 69.50 ~ 71 completes wave (c) of Y of a larger wave C of a bullish triangle.
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Alternate count : This count shows wave C of the larger triangle completed at 72.25, and price is currently in wave D to the upside, which would reach anywhere between 75.56 to 77.
Alt count continued.. This current wave D to the upside is unfolding as a double zigzag to the upside (WXY), of which wave X appears to be complete at 72.31. Price is now in wave Y of D now to roughly to the upside.
If price exceeds 75.60, this count would certainly become preferred.
This alternate count is also good. The only tiny objection we have is that wave C is slightly skewed to the upside, which could happen if the weakening rupee larger trend is strong.
USD / INR Analysis. As on 25 May 2021. CMP 72.85. Posted at 10:15 am.
Bottom line : Expected short term rupee weakness is late in development, and could commence at any time. Intermediate trend still calls for rupee strength to 69.50 ~ 71.
This late development of rupee weakness has slightly widened the gap between the Primary and Alternate count. Otherwise there is hardly any change from previous post of 11 May.
Primary count : Wave A down is likely complete (or almost so) at 72.75. Wave B should carry USD / INR up to 73.75 ~ 74.50 roughly before a decline in wave C to near the 69.50 ~ 71 level.
Larger term, price is wave C down of a larger bullish triangle.
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This count shows wave C of the larger triangle completed at 72.25, and price is currently in wave D to the upside. This count is also good. The only tiny objection we have is that wave C is slightly skewed to the upside, which would happen if the weakening rupee larger trend is strong.
This current wave D to the upside is unfolding as a double zigzag to the upside (WXY), of which wave X appears to be complete at 73.25. Price should commence wave Y of D now to roughly the 76.50 level.
The difference between the primary and alternate counts are small from an elliott wave technical perspective, but have large implications in terms of price action.
If price exceeds 75.60, this count would certainly become preferred.
USD / INR Update. As on Tues 11 May 2021. CMP 73.41. Posted at 1:15 pm.
The short term rupee strength is probably complete, or almost so. Expect near term rupee weakness under both counts. Larger pattern, further rupee strength is still expected based on Primary count.
Primary count : Wave a down is likely complete (or almost so) at 73.25. Wave B should carry USD / INR up to 74 ~ 74.50 roughly before a decline in wave C to near the 69.50 ~ 71 level.
Larger term, price is wave C down of a larger bullish triangle.
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Alternate count : This count shows wave C of the larger triangle completed at 72.25, and price is currently in wave D to the upside. This count is also good. The only tiny objection we have is that wave C is slightly skewed to the upside, which would happen if the weakening rupee larger trend is strong.
This current wave D to the upside is unfolding as a double zigzag to the upside (WXY), of which wave X appears to be complete at 73.25. Price should commence wave Y of D now to roughly the 76.50 level.
The difference between the primary and alternate counts are small from an elliott wave technical perspective, but have large implications in terms of price action.
If price exceeds 75.60, this count would certainly become preferred.
USD / INR Update. As on Saturday 1 May 2021. CMP 74.07.
Yesterday USD / INR reached 73.94.
From previous post of 26 April A decline below 74.05 would mean a temporary top is in place and the rupee is in strengthening mode to below 72.25 (likely to the 69.50 ~ 71 level)."
Primary count : Price appears to have completed wave X up at 75.56. Under this count, the wave X top would act as a strong ceiling and is unlikely to be breached anytime soon.
Price has begun wave Y of a larger wave C to the downside that should eventually carry below 72.25 (likely to 69.50 ~ 71 level).
This wave Y would unfold in 3 waves (a-b-c). Price is currently in wave (a) down that could end anywhere between 72 ~ 74.
On the larger time frames, price is in a larger 4th wave triangle. This structure was our hypothesis since over a year. Every twist and turn has served to strengthen this hypothesis.
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Alternate count : This count shows wave C of the larger triangle completed at 72.25, and price is currently in wave D to the upside. This count is also good. The only tiny objection we have is that wave C is slightly skewed to the upside, which would happen if the weakening rupee larger trend is strong.
The difference between the primary and alternate counts are small from an elliott wave technical perspective, but have large implications in terms of price action.
If price exceeds 75.60, this count would certainly become preferred.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Monday 26 April 2021. CMP 74.83. Posted at 11:15 am
Bottom line : USD / INR is in the latter stages of it's rally that could still reach above 76. A decline below 74.05 would mean a temporary top is in place and the rupee is in strengthening mode to below 72.25 (likely to the 69.50 ~ 71 level).
Primary count : Wave X to the upside in its latter stages. Price appears to be in a smaller 4th wave bullish triangle on the daily chart that should result in an upward thrust to above 76. A decline below 74.05 would mean that Wave X is likely complete.
Larger picture (weekly chart and above) shows price is yet to complete wave C down at about 69.50 ~ 71 of a larger bullish triangle.
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Alternate count : This count shows that wave C of the triangle is already in place at 72.25, and no further new lows are expected. The only issue with this count is wave C is slightly skewed towards the upside. A "better look" for wave C would place it at the 69.50 ~ 71 level. But this is not a bad count at all.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Tues 13 April 2021. CMP 75.09. Posted at 10:30 am.
The 75 target has been achieved. We have called for a weakening of the rupee for over a month now. In our previous post of 31 March when price was 73.56 we said "A new high above 75 is still expected sooner rather than later."
Primary count : Wave X of a double correction within wave C of a bullish triangle is in progress.
The rupee could stay weak for a little while longer while it finishes it's smaller 4th and 5th waves.
After that a reversal is expected to below 72.25 (rupee strengthening) to the 69.50 ~ 71 level.
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Alternate count : This count shows that wave C of the triangle is already in place at 72.25, and no new lows are expected. The only issue with this count is wave C is slightly skewed towards the upside. A "better look" for wave C would place it at the 69.50 ~ 71 level. But this is not a bad count at all.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Wed 31 March 2021. CMP 73.56. Posted at 10 am.
The 72.25 level held, barely. The count outlined in previous posts remains valid.
From previous post of 4 March "Price should rally in a 3rd wave to above 74.10 and eventually complete a wave X at above 75."
A new high above 75 is still expected sooner rather than later.
The wave count is complicated, but it has provided a good roadmap.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Thurs 4 March 2021. CMP 72.93. Posted at 11:15 am.
On 25 Feb, when price was 72.40, our call for a reversal was apt "Price should rapidly make it's way above 74 under this count."
1 day later, on Feb 26, price made a high of 74.05.
But since then USD / INR has corrected to below 73.
72.25 is clearly to be used as a risk management level.
Price should rally in a 3rd wave to above 74.10 and eventually complete a wave X at above 75.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 25 Feb 2021. CMP 72.40. Posted at 2:50 pm.
Our stop loss below 72.50 was taken out, for a tiny loss on the trade. Price continued to decline to 72.25.
The pattern has been re-worked. The new structure is also looking ripe for a reversal. But once bitten, twice shy, and we will await further confirmation before entering a long trade i.e. long USD / INR.
A different ending diagonal appears to be complete or near complete at 72.25. Price should rapidly make it's way above 74 under this count.
There is no change to the larger structures.
USD / INR short term update. As on 17 Feb 2021. CMP 72.84
Our accuracy on the USD / INR chart has been literally off-the-charts (so far). The strengthening of the rupee ended exactly at 72.50. Rupee has weakened since then, bolstering the probability that a temporary low is in place at 72.50, and USD / INR is heading up to the 75 level.
Under this count, the rupee should weaken quickly. The ending diagonal took 66 trading days to reach 72.507. The reversal back to it's origin at 75 should take 50-65% of that, or apprx 35-40 trading days.
Read previous posts for further explanations / analysis.
72.50 can be used as risk management level.
USD / INR Analysis. As on Saturday, 13 Feb 2021. CMP 72.58.
Bottom line : A change in trend is likely. Rupee weakening could also portend a correction in equities.
Way back in April 2020, when the Rupee had weakened to almost 77, we identified a turn was imminent. We also identified then where price was likely to go "The lower trend channel comes in at about roughly 72 level, so this is a rough area of strong support."
Over time we fine-tuned the target to below 72.80, which was attained a few weeks ago, and said "Minimum requirement for completion of the ending diagonal has been met at 72.78. It is possible the rupee could still strengthen for a few more days to the 72.50 level, but the next significant move should be weakening to the 75 level."
Read more below.
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Under the ending diagonal on the daily chart, price has moved sufficiently to reach 72.55, and a turn is demanded from current levels.
Notice the daily chart again. A possible wedge has formed within the 5th wave of the ending diagonal. Price appears ripe to commence a turn up to 75.
A rally above 73.20 would likely be enough confirmation the turn has occured.
The ending diagonal would be invalidated if price reaches 72.25, and a re-evaluation of the count would be called for.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 28 Jan 2021. CMP 73.10
Bottom line : Weakening of the Rupee should commence soon, to the 75 level, after which a period of strengthening to the 70 level.
Minimum requirement for completion of the ending diagonal has been met at 72.78. It is possible the rupee could still strengthen for a few more days to the 72.50 level, but the next significant move should be weakening to the 75 level.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on Thurs 14 Jan 2021. CMP 73.11. Posted at 10:50 am.
The USD / INR chart is fairly complicated. Price is in a larger 4th wave triangle. Within this triangle, price is unfolding as a complex Wave C to under 71.
In the short term, an ending diagonal appears to be in it's final stages which should end at 72.50 ~ 72.75.
This should be followed by a quick reversal to the 75 level in a flat correction of wave X.
This may be significant for equities as well. Rupee weakness is often associated with equity weakness. Rupee weakness to 75 could well be the wave iv correction of minor degree in the Nifty 50, which could take the index down to the 14,000 level.
Bottom line : Another few days of rupee strength to 72.50 ~ 72.75 could be showing us the end of the immediate equity rally.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 30 Dec 2020. CMP 73.37
Expectation is still for rupee to strengthen below 71 in a complex double correction, but which route it will take is unclear.
Below is the best projection we have at this stage.
Not much to add from previous post of 12 Dec.
Price is in a complex correction in wave C down of a larger 4th wave triangle.
The 3 day chart would probably be of the most interest for Rupee direction over the next few weeks and months.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 12 Dec 2020. CMP 73.73
Trading this pair remains difficult. Price is in a complex correction in wave C down of a triangle.
Expectation remains for the rupee to strengthen to below 71 before larger weakness resumes.
The route that this pair will take to reach below 71 is difficult to project, but below is the best hypothesis we have at this stage.
The 3 day chart would probably be of the most interest for Rupee direction over the next few months.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 1 Dec 2020. CMP 73.52
There is no change from earlier posts. Price is following script which calls for rupee strength to near or below 71.
But trading this pair remains difficult as it is a choppy move, and is not providing short term patterns for entry.
From post of 29 Oct "The recent weakness in the rupee from under 73 to above 74 appears to be corrective (so far)."
From post of 9 Nov "We suspect price is still in wave C down of a triangle that should take price to near or below 71...This wave C appears to be unfolding as a double correction (WXY) to the downside."
USD / INR Analysis. As on 9 Nov 2020. CMP 73.87
From previous post of 29 Oct "The recent weakness in the rupee from under 73 to above 74 appears to be corrective (so far)."
We suspect price is still in wave C down of a triangle that should take price to near or below 71.
This wave C appears to be unfolding as a double correction (WXY) to the downside.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 29 Oct 2020. CMP 74.03
The recent weakness in the rupee from under 73 to above 74 appears to be corrective (so far). It is early to have any level of confidence, but an ending diagonal could be playing out to the downside, which means further rupee strength.
We prefer not to see a daily close above 74.30.
This count would be invalidated if 75.13 is first exceeded.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 23 Oct 2020. CMP 73.61. Posted at 10:35 am.
Price is essentially where it was a month ago. No change. It has remained in a tight range. Price is currently below the ichimoku cloud, which is acting as resistance. As long as price remains below the cloud, rupee strength is preferred.
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1st downside target of 73 has been met 7 weeks ago. Minimum target was met, when price reached 72.75 on Aug 31.
Preference is for continued rupee strength to below 72.
That said, tread carefully. Minimum target has been met, so a trend reversal is also a possibility.
Larger picture, price is likely in wave C down of a larger bullish triangle.
USD / INR Analysis. As on 26 Sept 2020. CMP 73.67
1st target of 73 has been met over 3 weeks ago. Minimum target has been met, when price reached 72.75 on Aug 31.
Preference is for continued rupee strength to below 72, especially if equities are headed up in a larger 5th wave.
That said, tread carefully. Minimum target has been met, so a trend reversal is also a possibility.
USD / INR Update. As on 31 Aug 2020. CMP 73.27
Price has rushed to our 1st target of roughly 73. We called for a turn in trend way back in April 2020. But trading the USD / INR short term has been another level of difficulty.
USD / INR Momentum is strong to the downside (i.e. rupee strength). Resistance currently is at about 73.60 ~ 73.80.
2nd target is about 72 ~ 72.50 to complete wave c of a larger wave C triangle. Once price reaches this level, a turn in trend is again expected as there is strong support in this region of 72.
The larger picture shows price in a 4th wave triangle. If the 4th wave triangle unfolds instead as an expanded flat, then a test of 68.27 is called for.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Technical Update. As on 2 July 2020. CMP 74.71
Pattern identified back on April 22, 2020, and hasn't changed since. See previous tabs and conclusion of April 22.
On the daily chart, today 2 July, price has broken down from a rectangle (rupee strength). Short term target is 73.80, and likely to reach below 73. (Wave C = Wave A past A at 72.81).
This break down from the rectangle fits in beautifully with equity strength (often rupee strength = equity strength).
To put price into context, it appears to be in wave C down of a 4th wave bullish triangle (see previous posts for more detailed analysis).
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 23 June 2020. CMP 75.65
Rupee strength expected.
On the daily chart, a small (b) wave top is likely in place at 76.39.
Price is headed lower in wave (c) of C (of a larger bullish triangle) to below 73 is the target.
Wave C = Wave A past A at 72.81 (so lets just say roughly below 73).
C waves can be strong. Rupee strength fits well with equity strength.
Wave C down on USD / INR also fits well with 3rd wave rallies in equities.
All the indices have lined up - the ducks are in a row, so to speak. Bank Nifty is the only slight laggard, although it is close to taking out the 1st hurdle at 22,040, which we expect it to do.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 3 June 2020. CMP 75.05
Our post of April 22 turned out to be very accurate when price was almost 77. Remember at the time, the Rupee had been continuously weakening for a month. But that weakening was in wedge shape (or an ending diagonal), and we called for a reversal.
So far the reversal is on track. Price could be in a rectangle on the daily chart. Expectation is for a downside break within the next 2-3 weeks. A downside break of 74.90 would open the 73 level.
The hypothesis we have followed from previous post is of a bullish triangle, specifically price is in wave C down of said bullish triangle that is expected to reach the 72 ~ 73 level.
Please see previous post (next tab) where it has been explained in greater detail.
USD / INR Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 22 April 2020. CMP 76.76
Bottom line : Short term possible reversal. Read conclusion at the end.
We start off with the top down larger time frame charts.
Monthly chart.
Price is likely in a larger wave 4. The strongest point about this chart is the lower trend channel line that began in year 2011. Price has bounced off of it several times. Only a break of this would render price action bearish (rupee strength).
Notice wave 2 of the same degree took up 28 months. If wave 4 takes up the same amount of time, it should carry to early 2021. Price is likely in an expanded flat or bullish triangle, with the triangle having an preferential edge.
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Weekly and 2 week chart. Wave B possibly nearing an end.
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2 day chart : This is where one notices 3 features that show at least the short term rally in USD / INR is nearing an end.
- Ending Diagonal formation. Notice the wedge shape.
- Volume declining as higher highs are being made.
- MACD negative divergence as higher highs are being made.
Read conclusion below.
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Conclusion : In the near term, price appears to be reaching a reversal juncture. But in the intermediate term, as long as price remains in the trend channel that began in year 2011, rupee remains bearish (i.e. bullish USD / INR). The lower trend channel comes in at about roughly 72 level, so this is a rough area of strong support. A bullish triangle as a larger wave 4 would fit the structure perfectly, as well as take up the requisite time. See below weekly chart.
