Rupee falls big today

“Rupee sees biggest one day fall in 20 months”

Above headline from a leading business newspaper at 5:15 pm 7 April 2021


What did Elliott Wave India have to say about the rupee direction ?

A reversal from the strengthening rupee has been expected for well over a month.

On 25 Feb 2021, when USD / INR price was 72.40, our call for a reversal was apt “Price should rapidly make it’s way above 74 under this count.”

1 day later, on Feb 26, price made a high of 74.05.

But after that USD / INR corrected to below 73.

We said “72.25 is clearly to be used as a risk management level.” (for long USD / INR trades)

“Price should rally in a 3rd wave to above 74.10 and eventually complete a wave X at above 75”.

On 31 March, exactly a week ago we re-iterated our stance A new high above 75 is still expected sooner rather than later.

The wave count is complicated, but it has provided a good roadmap.

(Notice not a single word from us about RBI monetary policy today.  We don’t draw the connection because the connection is tenuous at best).

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