“Rupee sees biggest one day fall in 20 months”
Above headline from a leading business newspaper at 5:15 pm 7 April 2021
What did Elliott Wave India have to say about the rupee direction ?
A reversal from the strengthening rupee has been expected for well over a month.
On 25 Feb 2021, when USD / INR price was 72.40, our call for a reversal was apt “Price should rapidly make it’s way above 74 under this count.”
1 day later, on Feb 26, price made a high of 74.05.
But after that USD / INR corrected to below 73.
We said “72.25 is clearly to be used as a risk management level.” (for long USD / INR trades)
“Price should rally in a 3rd wave to above 74.10 and eventually complete a wave X at above 75”.
On 31 March, exactly a week ago we re-iterated our stance “A new high above 75 is still expected sooner rather than later.“
The wave count is complicated, but it has provided a good roadmap.
(Notice not a single word from us about RBI monetary policy today. We don’t draw the connection because the connection is tenuous at best).
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