Nifty 50 Update. As on Monday 22 Nov 2021. CMP 17,570. Posted at 11:50 am.
And just like that, with the break of 17,615, even with 4 legs appearing complete of the bearish triangle, that particular bearish triangle pattern is out the window.
Nifty now has many options. Next level of support comes in at about 17,300 roughly. But between now and getting there whether it is going to be a straight line down or a rally first is difficult to forecast. Momentum is certainly bearish.
There are 3 counts on the table. No preference between the counts.
Count 1 : Price is in a wave A down to 17,300 ~ 17,400 of a bullish wave Y triangle.
Count 2 : Price is in wave A of Y down that could complete at any time, which would result in a short term rally towards the 17,900 ~ 18,100 level to complete wave B of Y, before a final wave C of Y takes price down to the 17,300 level.
Count 3 : This shows price in wave b down of a bearish triangle, which would be followed by a further leg down on completion of this bearish triangle.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 18 Nov 2021. CMP 17,733. Posted at 11 am.
With the violation of 17,799, the prior primary count has been discarded. We have only 1 count on the table at this time, and it is a bearish triangle.
Price is nearing a temporary low of wave d to the downside. As long as price does not violate 17,615 first, this count holds.
Price has satisfied minimum requirements of wave d down of a bearish triangle, so it is free to commence a rally at any time, but could still decline to below 17,700.
On completion of wave d, it is necessary for price to rally above 17,970 to complete wave e of the bearish triangle, to be subsequently followed by a thrust lower to below 17,400.
So 2 requirements for this bearish triangle to hold.
- The current decline should complete above 17,615 (to complete wave d)
- Subsequently, a rally to above 17,970 is required (to complete wave e)
Nifty 50 Update. As on Tues 16 Nov 2021. CMP 17,999. Posted at 4:30 pm.
Bottom line : Within a few weeks, a visit to the 17,400 level is expected. Whether price will make a new high above 18,209 first is not clear. Primary count shows price should begin up soon to above 18,209, while Alternate count shows sideways to lower to the 17,700 level.
Primary count : A double correction from 17,615 to the upside is underway. Price may have put in a temporary low today at 17,959, and should soon begin a rally to above 18,209, possibly above 18,340. Any violation first of 17,799 would shift preference to the alternate count.
Alternate count : This count shows price in wave d of a bearish triangle towards 17,700 level. This count shows that wave c high of 18,209 is unlikely to be breached in the near term.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Monday 15 Nov 2021. CMP 18,150. Posted at 11 am.
Bottom line : Expectation is still for a test of 17,615, but price appears to be moving sideways to higher first.
Previous post of Friday morning, the hypothesis of a bearish triangle has not worked out where we were bearish against 18,112. Instead of a bearish triangle, it appears a flat correction is in progress where a test of 18,340 is possible.
Today's high of 18,209 has tested a short trend channel, so in the very short term a decline to roughly 18,000 is possible, followed by a rally above 18,209 and maybe towards 18,340 to complete an expanded flat (or if it falls short of 18,340, a running flat) before price heads lower to the 17,300 ~ 17,400 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Friday 12 Nov 2021. CMP 17,970. Posted at 10:15 am.
Bottom line : Bearish against 18,112.
Primary count : On the hourly chart, Nifty may have completed a bearish triangle at this morning's high of 17,993, or is close to completion. If so, downside target would be 17,370, where wave circle wave c = circle wave a.
In case Nifty exceeds 18,112 we would begin to consider the alternate count more seriously, but may still not adopt it.
Alternate count : We need to keep this count in our back pocket just in case of failure of the above pattern. This shows the Oct 29th low of 17,615 as wave A of a bullish triangle or flat.
So far price has moved in accordance with the primary count. This alternate count is just to keep an open mind that another option is also possible.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Tues 9 Nov 2021. CMP 18,040. Posted at 11 am.
Bottom line : Nifty has met requirement for counter-trend rally. Next significant move should be a decline to the 17,700 level.
This morning's high at 18,112 could be the end of wave c of the bearish triangle, although further upside to the 18,150 cannot be ruled out. Even 18,200 ~ 18,250 is possible under the near term bearish triangle count, but we would prefer not to see price above 18,300 as that may cause a re-evaluation of the count.
A move above 18,300 could put the 17,615 level as wave A of a bullish triangle or flat correction.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Monday 8 Nov 2021. CMP 17,870. Posted at 10:00 am.
Bottom line : No change to projected path. Price remains in a sideways triangle. Preference is for price to thrust lower on completion of triangle.
Any rally nearer 18,300 would open up a test of the upside of 18,600 (in a potential flat or bullish triangle).
A bearish triangle appears to be playing out on the short term time frames (4 hour chart and below). On completion of this triangle, a thrust lower to 17,300 level is expected. Rallies should get capped by the 18,150 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Tues 2 Nov 2021. CMP 17,930. Posted at 9:45 am.
Bottom line : So far, so good. Price is following path outlined in previous post of 29 Oct.
The recent low of 17,615 has held, and price is moving sideways in an apparent bearish triangle. On completion of this bearish triangle, a thrust lower is expected towards the 17,300 level.
If price rallies soon above 18,300 - 18,350, then a couple of different options come in, like the low at 17,615 could be wave A of a larger bullish triangle (or flat).
For now, price should remain sideways between 17,615 ~ 18,200 for the coming few days.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Friday 29 Oct 2021. CMP 17,780. Posted at 1:20 pm.
Bottom line : Temporary low could be in place at today's low of 17,615. Any further downside would likely change the wave count.
Working Hypothesis, and pls remember it is just a hypothesis, is a temporary low is likely to be in place at today's low of 17,615.
A bearish triangle could be forming for the next few days to a couple of weeks, on completion of which a thrust down to the 17,300 level would complete the correction.
The alternate is that today's low is wave A of a larger 4th wave correction.
However, if today's low is violated, we need to be open to the possibility that the larger trend has turned lower.
The 4 hour chart encapsulates the working hypothesis. Price should be headed up in choppy manner to the 18,150 ~ 18,250 level in wave c of this bearish triangle. Basically sideways movement between 17,615 ~ 18,200 is expectation for the coming few days.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 28 Oct 2021. CMP 17,857. Posted at 4:50 pm.
Bottom line : Price is in wave 4 to the downside. Price is still expected to go a little further down to the 17,300 ~ 17,650 level. But proceed with caution as today's decline may yield a significant bounce if a triangle or flat correction plays out in wave 4.
Nifty has met our 1st target of 17,800 on the downside. (From post of 26 Oct "Wave 3 top likely at 18,602. A decline is expected to at least 4th wave of lower degree at about 17,300 ~ 17,800.")
How this decline unfolds is going to be important in determining future course.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Tues 26 Oct 2021. CMP 18,160. Posted at 12:20 pm.
Bottom line : Wave 3 top likely at 18,602. A decline is expected to at least 4th wave of lower degree at about 17,300 ~ 17,800.
Price is currently in wave A down to the 17,600 ~ 17,800 level (possibly to 17,300 level). Short term upward corrections to the 18,300 ~ 18,500 level are possible. Any new high above 18,602 first would negate this wave count.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Wed 20 Oct 2021. CMP 18,405. Posted at 11:35 am.
Bottom line : A top is likely in place, but a small new high cannot be ruled out.
The turn in the broader markets has been very sharp. If a top is in place at 18,602, as we suspect it is, price should decline to the 4th wave of lower degree at 17,300 ~ 17,500 in the coming weeks.
Wave 2 of same degree was very shallow, and was a time correction. Guideline of alternation suggests this wave 4 down would be sharp, and possibly deep. So a decline some distance below 17,300 is also possible.