Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 5 Dec 2022. Posted at 11 am.
Bottom line : Bearish against 18,887. Downside targets : 17,000 ~ 17,500 (Count 1), or 14,000 ~ 14,200 (Count 2).
On the 30 minute chart, a 5 wave impulsive decline confirms at least a temporary top in place at 18,887.
On the lower probability of Nifty breaching 18,887 to the upside, that could be a strongly bullish signal, but until that happens, this market has likely turned lower.
Count 1 : This count shows Nifty would decline to the 17,000 ~ 17,500 level before starting a strong 3rd of 3rd wave rally to well above the 21,000 level.
Count 2 : This count shows a larger wave B in place at 18,887 and Nifty has begun it's descent to the 14,000 ~ 14,200 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 2 Dec 2022. CMP 18,740. Posted at 9:30 am.
Bottom line : Nifty at a potential turning point. 100 points from the high doesn't make a trend change. But the wave count on small degree is also looking complete. If the decline becomes a 5 wave impulse, it would confirm at least a short term change of trend.
Should price continue up strongly over the next 2-3 days, Count 3 could likely become preferred. As of now, all 3 counts are equally probable.
Count 1 : If a larger B wave is complete, now is the time for the larger turn to occur. 5 waves up on multiple time frames from 15,185 attest to a potential turning point, where Nifty could begin a larger descent down to the 14,000 level.
Count 2 : This count shows the impending decline is likely to be far shallower towards the 17,000 ~ 17,500 level.
Count 3 : This count shows that Nifty is straight up bullish from current levels in a 3rd wave to the upside, and should continue up higher towards the 20,000 ~ 23,000 levels. For this count to take precedence, any correction should be very shallow, potentially intra-day and preferably not more than a couple of days.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 28 Nov 2022. CMP 18,512. Posted at 9 am.
Bottom line : Nifty is at a potential turning point. Caution is warranted. If Nifty continues strongly higher thru this week, the probability rises that a larger 3rd wave is in progress, and is headed significantly higher (Count 3).
But the probability for a turn lower looks more likely at this stage.
Counts 1 & 2 are of roughly equal probability, while Count 3 is of lower probability.
Count 1 (Extremely bearish towards 14,200) : A thrust from a bullish triangle is nearing the end. Triangles tend to be penultimate patterns where the subsequent thrust gets reversed soon. Nifty could still continue upwards to the 18,700 ~ 18,800 level before putting in a larger wave B top.
Count 2 (reasonably bearish) : This count too calls for a decline towards 17,000 ~ 17,500 in wave 2 before the larger strong 3rd wave rally kicks in.
Count 3 (extremely bullish) : If this is a larger 3rd wave rally, then Nifty needs to continue almost straight up from current levels towards 20,000 ~ 23,000 levels. Corrections if any, should be extremely mild, and likely to be intra-day, and not more than a couple of days.
There does not appear to be a mildly bullish count. It is either Extremely bearish towards 14,200 (Count 1), Somewhat bearish towards 17,000 ~ 17,500 (Count 2) or Extremely bullish (Count 3).
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 24 Nov 2022. CMP 18,267. Posted at 9:10 am.
Bottom line : Nifty is in the latter stages of a 5 wave impulse rally from the June lows of 15,185. A new high should be seen above 18,441. After that, there is a reasonably high probability of a turn lower. How much lower depends on which count plays out.
Count 1 : Nifty has begun a minuette degree 5th wave of a larger 1st wave. On completion of this, a correction to 17,000 ~ 17,500 could be the next significant move to complete wave 2.
Count 2 : The same 5 wave impulsive rally could also be wave c of a larger expanded flat B wave. Which puts Nifty at risk of a significant decline towards the 14,000 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 21 Nov 2022. CMP 18,150. Posted at 2:55 pm.
Bottom line : Near term Nifty is in a small 4th wave correction, which could end at any time. New highs above 18,441 is the expectation.
Count 1 : Nifty has reached the center of 4th wave of lower degree. It could still extend to 17,900, but minimum requirement for a correction is satisfied.
Count 2 : Price could be in a smaller bullish triangle (or flat) in a small 4th wave. Expectation still remains for at least one more high above 18,441 before Nifty rolls over and commences a large decline towards 14,000.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 18 Nov 2022. CMP 18,290. Posted at 10:35 am.
Bottom line : Bias remains bullish against 17,900 levels. No sign of weakness in Bank Nifty either.
But if Nifty does continue upwards from current levels towards 18,500 ~ 18,800, a reasonable correction would then be due.
Count 1 : On the 30 min / 75 min chart, a small bullish triangle could be forming ... If minor support at 18,282 holds, that would be immediately bullish for the index. But if it does not hold, that opens up the near term to 17,900 ~ 18,050 levels (4th wave of lower degree).
Count 2 : Nifty could also be in the early stages of an ending diagonal to the upside. If price does roughly follow this path, it would provide plenty of time and advance warning of a larger turn lower.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 14 Nov 2022. CMP 18,370. Posted at 10:15 am.
Bottom line : No sign of a larger bearish pattern. The 17,959 level now becomes excellent support in case of a dip. With Bank Nifty also showing no signs of exhaustion, the rallies in both remain intact.
Count 1 : From earlier post "irrespective of short term fluctuations, the 18,400 ~ 18,600 level should be reached in either wave 3 or wave 5 of minuette degree."
Nifty has either begun a 5th wave up or still in a 4th wave of minuette degree. There is negative divergence on MACD so sideways between 18,000 and 18,400 for a few days is possible, while the technicals sort themselves out before continuing higher.
If nifty has begun a 3rd wave higher of minor degree, there is also potential for acceleration from current levels.
Count 2 : Near term is same as count 1. Difference lies in the intermediate term.
Near term, If wave 3 of minuette degree is complete (as outlined in count 1), price could move sideways between 18,000 ~ 18,400 for a few days before thrusting higher towards 18,500 ~ 18,800. (Near term both counts are at least sideways to bullish).
This count shows that wave B of larger intermediate degree would then be complete once price has reached 18,500 ~ 18,800 and set the stage for a decline towards the 14,000 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 7 Nov 2022. CMP 18,170. Posted at 10:05 am.
Bottom line : Under either count, Nifty is expected to reach at least the 18,400 ~ 18,600 level. No change from earlier posts. Difference remains in the longer term time frames.
Count 1 : Price remains in wave 3 up of minuette degree, which could extend to 18,500 ~ 18600 (the 261.8% fibonacci extention). That said it has already reached the 200% fibo extention so a near term minuette degree correction cannot be ruled out, potentially to the 18,000 level, before the rally resumes. But irrespective of short term fluctuations, the 18,400 ~ 18,600 level should be reached in either wave 3 or wave 5 of minuette degree.
The larger count shows Nifty is in just wave 1 up of minor degree and larger term target could be significantly higher than 20,000.
Alternate count : This count has been on the table for many months, and shows Nifty in the latter stages of wave B up towards 18,400 ~ 18,600, and set the stage for a very large decline towards the 14,000 ~ 14,200 level. But until there is a clear bearish pattern, the trend remains up.
In the near term, if price corrects to the 17,700 level from here in a smaller degree wave iv , then the probability of this count may rise slightly.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Tues 1 Nov 2022. CMP 18,140. Posted at 10:20 am
Bottom line : Nifty has achieved minimum requirement for the rally, but it appears to have further to go under either count.
Count 1 : Price is in a minuette degree wave 3 which could reach the 18,550 ~ 18,600 level before a meaningful correction is seen.
But if the 18,095 level represented wave (1) and 16,748 represented wave (2), then this current rally could extend significantly higher towards the 20,000 level.
Do not look for a top until a meaningful bearish pattern develops, of which there is no sign currently.
Count 2 : The short term count (daily chart) is the same as Count 1. Price is unfolding as a 5 wave impulse. The difference remains with the larger count. Nifty is in a larger wave B to the upside which could also reach the 18,500 ~ 18,600 level before the larger decline commences.
This count shows wave B has taken the form of an expanded flat.
Bullish till a meaningful bearish pattern forms.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Tues 25 Oct 2022. CMP 17,750. Posted at 10 am.
Bottom line : No change from previous post. Price remains bullish for at least one more high above 18,096. Under either count, the index is free to correct as long as 16,748 is not violated.
Count 1 : Price remains in Wave 5 up of a larger wave 1.
Count 2 : This intermediate term bearish count remains on the table, where Nifty could fall to the 14,000 level to complete a larger expanded flat.
Near term, this too allows for price to correct to the 17,000 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 20 Oct 2022. CMP 17,460. Posted at 10:45 am.
Bottom line : With Nifty taking out 17,431, that has left 3 waves down and makes the decline from 18,096 to 16,748 corrective, not impulsive. Price action is bullish against 16,748, under either count.
Count 1 : Price in a wave 5 up of a larger 1st wave. Nifty needs to pick up the upside pace under this count.
Count 2 : This count too is bullish against 16,748 in wave 5 for highs above 18,096... but of a larger wave B. On completion of this wave B, a decline to the 14,000 level would commence. This count allows for a choppy sideways to up price action to above 18,096 as long as 16,748 is not breached.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 17 Oct 2022. CMP 17,250. Posted at 11:45 am.
Bottom line : Failure of downside momentum from 18,096 provides a slight bullish bias (against 16,748).
Count 1 (Bearish) : A break of 16,748 would yield a clear 5 wave impulsive decline, and provide a clear bearish direction as to the intermediate trend. An upside breach of 17,431 would lower the probability of the bearish view.
Count 2 (bullish) : This count gets bolstered on a breach of 17,431, and calls for continuation above 18,100 and intermediate term potentially above 20,000.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Tues 11 Oct 2022. CMP 17,241. Posted at 9:05 am.
Bottom line : Neutral. Neither level from earlier post i.e. 17,431 to the upside, nor 16,748 has been breached.
Count 1 : Nifty came close to taking out 17,431 by reaching 17,428. If price breaks 16,748 to the downside first, this would show a clear 5 wave impulsive decline, and intermediate term Nifty is likely heading lower, to the 14,000 ~ 14,200 level.
Count 2 : This count gets bolstered if 17,431 is taken out. In this event, Nifty is likely headed up to close to new all time highs at 18,604, and the intermediate term is significantly bullish to likely above 20,000.
Nifty 50 Update. As on 4 Oct 2022. CMP 17,200. Posted at 10 am.
Bottom line : Neutral for now. It's a straight shoot-out between 2 key levels to determine the larger trend. An upside breach of 17,431 bolsters the bullish count 2, while a break of 16,748 would confirm the larger trend as down (count 1).
Count 1 : This spurt from 16,748 is a 4th wave correction, and has reached the 38% fibonacci retrace of wave 3 down. As long as price does not reach 17,431, this count remains valid. If price does break 16,748 to the downside, there would be a clear 5 wave impulse down from the 18,096 and would confirm the larger trend as down, eventually declining to the 14,000 ~ 14,200 level.
If price does exceed 17,431, then Count 2 automatically becomes preferred.
Count 2 : This count remains equally valid as count 1 currently. The decline from 18,096 is still in 3 waves. An upside breach of 17,431 (wave a on the 4 hour chart) would confirm price is heading up to new all time highs above 18,600 and above 20,000 larger term.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 30 Sept 2022. CMP 16,820. Posted at 10:15 am.
Bottom line : Intermediate term bearish (with caveats). Short term neutral.
The decline from 18,096, sharp as it has been, has not yet been in 5 waves. While the probability is still bearish, lack of a 5 wave downside impulse so far has kept the door open for an intermediate term bullish resolution (count 2).
Count 1 : Nifty could be tracing out a 5 wave impulsive decline from 18,096. If wave iii of smaller degree down is complete, and there is no confirmation it is, then a small bounce in wave iv with a further drop in wave v, would confirm that Nifty is likely heading towards the 14,000 ~ 14,200 level over time. But if a 5 wave impulsive rally forms, then count 2 would take precedence.
Count 2 : On the 4 hour chart, a potential wedge shape shows the possibility of a rapid rally from current levels. The decline from 18,096 is also so far in 3 waves. The bullish count cannot be dismissed easily.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Tues 27 Sept 2022. CMP 17,016. Posted at 8:40 am
Bottom line : With Nifty finding support near the 17,000 level yesterday, the probability has risen slightly of a bullish resolution. Coupled that with Bank Nifty not breaking the Aug 29 low, and U.S. futures up, there is a reasonable probability that a bullish triangle in Nifty could be in it's early stages.
A sustained close on the hourly chart below yesterday's low of 16,980 is likely to be continuation of the bearish resolution. But until that happens, sideways to higher is the call.
Count 1 : Wave A of a bullish triangle is likely in place at 16,982. Wave B would reach the 17,800 ~ 18,100 level.
A rally above 17,431 would bolster this count significantly.
Count 2 : Bearish on a sustained close below 16,980. This pattern calls for continued decline to the 14,000 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 26 Sept 2022. Posted at 10:50 am. CMP 17,050.
Bottom line : The alternates are receding in probability. Nifty has reached the 4th wave of lower degree, so if the bearish view is to be invalidated, price needs to find a footing now. It is getting more difficult to accomodate a sideways to higher view.
Primary count : Nifty has put in an important top at 18,096 and is heading lower to the 14,000 level.
Alternate count : For this count to gain traction, Nifty has to begin climbing now. There is no more room left to accomodate this view if Nifty continues to fall.
It has already reached below the 4th wave of 1 lower degree and 2 lower degrees.
Nifty 50 Update. As on 23 Sept 2022. CMP 17,430. Posted at 11:50 am.
Bottom line : Short term Nifty could see a rally. While Bank Nifty earlier showed a 5 wave impulsive decline, Nifty 50 did not. This makes it possible that Nifty still has sideways to higher to come, and potentially above the recent high of 18,096.
Lack of a 5 wave impulse down makes it difficult to call a top in Nifty.
A downside break of 17,160 could require a re-evaluation.
Count 1 : Nifty could be completing wave A of a bullish triangle within a 4th wave. This could mean a rally to the 17,800 ~ 18,000 level in the near term in wave b of said triangle.
Count 2 : An ending diagonal could be playing out, but it is too early in the pattern to have high conviction. This would see small new highs in Nifty and a rapid decline on completion of the ending diagonal.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 19 Sept 2022. CMP 17,605. Posted at 10:15 am.
Bottom line : Nifty decline is not (yet) in 5 waves to the downside (in contrast to Bank Nifty). Nifty has other options as mentioned in earlier post.
Eitherway, from an investment perspective, caution is advised as Nifty has either completed its final 5th wave rally or is in it.
Without a clear 5 wave decline, a fall below 17,160 would serve as confirmation that an important top is already in place.
While there is certainly possible Nifty will still unfold as a 5 wave impulsive decline, it is not visible yet.
Today's low of 17,471 could be a temporary low as Nifty proceeds to new highs above 18,096.
Count 1 : On the 75 min / 4 hour chart, Nifty's fall has reached the 4th wave of lower degree, a common occurence. Nifty could move sideways to higher in a 4th wave triangle for a few days before a final thrust out to new highs above 18,096.
Count 2 : This count shows an ending diagonal unfolding. It is still early to call, but it would be appropriate. Ending diagonals occur in a 5th wave position when the rally has moved too far, too fast. No one can seriously argue a rally of above 18% in 61 trading sessions on the benchmark index is not too far, too fast.
Under this count, price would be very choppy, sideways to higher before a rapid reversal on culmination of the ending diagonal.
This could potentially mean Nifty staying at these elevated levels for a few more weeks before reversing rapidly.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 16 Sept 2022. CMP 17,900. Posted at 8:35 am
Bottom line : A temporary top at least is likely in place at yesterday's high of 18,096. Near term a test of the 17,500 ~ 17,600 level is the expectation.
Nifty made yet another attempt at the 18,100 level, but again fell short at 18,096. A short term top looks likely to be in place. If it is an intermediate term top, more confirmation is required.
Notice how bank nifty made a tiny new high above the 41,827 level by reaching 41,840, thereby clearly fulfilling a new all time high in a thrust from a larger triangle.
Count 1 : While a longer term top could be in place, there are other options possible as well.
This count shows Nifty in a small correction towards 17,500 ~ 17,600 in a small 4th wave correction, before continuation of the larger uptrend.
Count 2 : This count shows price in the very early stages of an ending diagonal. If Nifty does follow this pattern, it would be excellent for an intermediate term top confirmation, but it is too early in the pattern to know if this is playing out.
Nifty 50 Update. As on 14 Sept 2022. CMP 17,850. Posted at 9:45 am.
Bottom line : While it is certainly possible a top is in place at yesterday's high of 18,088, the expectation is there is some choppy action to go, and potential small new highs above 18,088.
If today or tomorrow, price breaches 18,088, we can safely assume that Nifty is still in a strong uptrend (Count 3).
Count 1 : Possible top is in place. But for this further evidence is required to be confident. Our preference is with count 2.
Count 2 : Even though it is very early to call an ending diagonal, the ingredients of an ending diagonal are there (so far). This is the working hypothesis for the time being.
This count shows very choppy price action to come for several days within wave ii of an ending diagonal, eventually finishing wave ii between 17,168 and 17,500. A decline below 17,168 would negate the ending diagonal.
Count 3 : If nifty makes a new high within a couple of days, this count would become preferred, and Nifty is still in a strong uptrend.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 8 Sept 2022. CMP 17,798. Posted at 5:20 pm.
Bottom line : Intermediate term Nifty heading to above 18,100 under either count. Near term is more complicated, but it does look plausible that 17,469 may not be tested soon.
Count 1 : Price is heading up in a small wave (iii) to above 18,150. Under this count, 17,469 is unlikely to be tested.
It is also possible that 17,168 represents wave A of a triangle or flat, and price is currently in wave B.
Count 2 : This count shows that Nifty has begun a final 5th wave up of a larger B wave.
The rally from 17,469 has not been in an impulsive 5 waves, which opens the door slightly to a possible ending diagonal in the final 5th wave, although it is too early to call at this stage. But if an ending diagonal does play out, it would have important implications for the larger count, which be elaborated on after price follows this path for a while.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Tues 6 Sept 2022. CMP 17,695. Posted at 9:15 am.
Bottom line : Near term outlook remains for choppy moves between 17,168 and 18,100 in a potential triangle.
Intermediate term expectation for at least a further rally above 18,100 remains the call.
Count 1 : Price appears to be in a triangle on the 75 min / 4 hour chart. Larger term charts show price in a 3rd wave to the upside. Only a decline below 17,168 would change this view.
Count 2 : This also calls for a new high above 18,100. The difference is in the larger count. A new high above 18,100 would complete a larger wave B and set the stage for a decline to the 14,000 level.
Until there is clear evidence of a reversal, the trend remains up.
Nifty 50 Update. As on 1 Sept 2022. CMP 17,670. Posted at 10:30 am.
Bottom line : Likely consolidation in Nifty between 17,168 and 18,100 for the next week ~ 10 days.
Larger trend still remains bullish for at least a new high above 18,100.
Primary count : A near term decline below 17,400 is likely on the cards. Very near term strong support and resistance levels at 17,168 and 17,777, both of which are unlikely to be touched soon.
Price appears to be in a small 4th wave consolidation, potentially a triangle for the next 7 ~ 10 days. For today's expiry, it is preferable a new high above 17,777 is not seen.
The larger count appears to be in a 3rd wave to the upside (See 3 day chart).
Alternate count : This count shows a new high above 18,100 would complete a larger wave B and commence a decline to the 14,000 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on 29 Aug 2022. CMP 17,274. Posted at 10 am.
Bottom line : Bullish against 17,160. Nifty has found support at exactly the 4th wave of lower degree, at 17,160 ~ 17,170 level. If this level holds, Nifty is on track for a new high above 18,100.
But if it gives way, there is a real possibility that the larger uptrend is complete with a truncation, and Nifty has begun it's descent towards 14,000. Bank Nifty has completed a 5 wave impulse rally and S&P 500 has also completed it's bear market rally pattern.
Count 1 : The 17,160 level has shown to be strong support. It is important Nifty sustains above this level.
Count 2 : If 17,161 gives way, the next level of support is the 4th wave of 2 lower degrees at 16,439. But this count shows a completion of a larger wave B at 17,992 and is headed lower in wave C to 14,000 ~ 14,200.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Wed 24 Aug 2022. CMP 17,605. Posted at 4 pm.
Bottom line : Uptrend remains intact towards at least 18,100 under either count.
Near term, price is likely in a smaller degree 4th wave consolidation.
No preference between counts.
Count 1 : The recent low at 17,347 reached the lower half of the prior 4th wave of lower degree (see 75 min chart). Cannot rule out another decline towards 17,160 ~ 17,250 level.
This count shows Nifty 50 in a larger 3rd wave to the upside.
Count 2 : This count also calls for at least one more rally to above 18,100 to complete a larger wave B and sets the stage for a decline towards 14,200.
The trend is up. Until there is a clear bearish reversal pattern after price has exceeded 18,100, only then should larger bearish trades be considered.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Sat 20 Aug 2022. CMP 17,758. Posted at 11:20 am.
Bottom line : Near term immediate uptrend could be complete.
Both counts display the larger uptrend is intact, and call for further upside to at least above 18,100.
No preference between counts.
Count 1 : Yesterday's bearish engulfing candle took out price action of 3 prior days. There is a reasonable probability that a temporary high is in place (minor degree wave 3) at 17,989.
Under this scenario in the near term, a correction could reach the 17,200 ~ 17,400 level before a final high to above 18,100 wraps up the larger rally and sets the stage for a decline to the 14,000 level.
Cautionary note : 1 bearish daily candle may not be enough to reverse the bullish momentum. In the event of price taking out 17,989 in the near future, it would mean the immediate trend is still extremely bullish. (Essentially means any short trades should have above 17,989 as a stop loss).
Count 2 :
4 hour chart : This chart shows the recent sub-waves better. This shows a 3rd of 3rd complete at 17,989 and price heading lower towards 4th wave of lower degree at 17,200 ~ 17,400.
3 day chart displays the larger trend is strongly bullish where price could be in a larger 3rd wave rally, which could take Nifty significantly above 19,000.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Tues 16 Aug 2022. CMP 17,800. Posted at 10:05 am.
Bottom line : Potential pause at current levels. Intermediate term minimum expectation above 18,100.
Trend channel upper line at current levels could give Nifty a pause / correction.
No preference re count at this stage.
Count 1 : This count shows Nifty unfolding as a 5 wave rally in wave c of an expanded flat to above 18,100 before the larger decline commences to the 14,000 ~ 14,200 level.
Count 2 : This shows Nifty having completed a larger wave 2 (or wave A of 2) and is headed higher in wave 3 (or wave B of 2).
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 8 Aug 2022. CMP 17,397. Posted pre-market at 9 am.
Bottom line : Very short term neutral. Nifty is likely heading above 18,100 as the minimum target.
No preference between counts.
Count 1 : On the 4 hour chart, Nifty is still in a 3rd of 3rd wave higher. Larger count shows Nifty has begun an intermediate degree 3rd wave rally that could eventually take price to the 24,000 level.
Count 2 : This count on the 4 hour chart shows wave (iv) should commence to the downside to below 16,650 before the rally resumes.
Larger count shows this rally from 15,185 is the final leg to complete a larger wave B to above 18,100. A large decline lies ahead to 14,200. The larger pattern is more in sync with the U.S. indices.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Wed 3 Aug 2022. CMP 17,250. Posted at 12 noon.
Bottom line : Intermediate term Nifty heading above 18,114. After that it depends on price action which count is likely to play out.
There is no preference between counts.
Count 1 : Price has reached the 261% extention of wave 1. This shows the potential of wave 3 possibly complete at 17,389. Under this count, price is headed lower to below 16,650 in a wave (iv).
The larger count shows price heading up in 5 waves to complete wave c of B in an expanded flat before a large decline commences.
Count 2 : This count is significantly more bullish. This count shows price is still in a 3rd of 3rd wave to the upside, and any near term correction would be short lived, where price should not decline very much below 17,000, if at all.
Larger count shows that Nifty has begun a larger 3rd wave to the upside.
Nifty 50 Update. As on 1 Aug 2022. CMP 17,340. Posted at 4:30 pm.
Bottom line : With price acceleration, it appears Nifty could make new all time highs above 18,604, maybe sooner than expected.
Count 1 : The slope of the latest rally has accelerated since the last swing low at 16,439, which is looking a lot like Nifty is in a powerful 3rd of 3rd of 3rd wave.
Under this count, Nifty will eventually reach well above 24,000.
But a little bit of caution is required, as this powerful rally could still be a B wave, potentially to new all time highs, to be followed by a large decline. For now there doesn't seem to be anything to halt this rally.
Count 2 : This count shows the immediate rally could end this week, and decline to below 16,700 before a final rally above 18,100 to complete an expanded flat and set the stage for a 5 wave decline to the 14,200 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 29 July 2022. CMP 17,100. Posted at 11:20 am.
Bottom line : A small degree 3rd wave is complete or close to completion. Today's gap up could spell the end of the immediate rally.
Intermediate term 18,000 is on the cards.
If price continues sailing higher, Count 2 (even more bullish) may become preferred.
The larger bearish triangle has been effectively discarded. See chart.
Both below counts are bullish, and effectively send the same message. The only difference is how much further above 18,000 Nifty will go.
Primary : Under this count, for the next 2-3 weeks, Nifty is expected to trade in a range of 16,550 ~ 17,200, as price commences a 4th wave correction / consolidation.
Near term, Nifty has reached the target zone of 17,000 ~ 17,200. Under this count, Nifty is likely to fill today's second exhaustion gap at 16,943, and eventually fill the first exhaustion gap of yesterday at 16,652. The continuation gap of 16,359 is likely to remain safe and un-filled until Nifty begins a larger term decline which is still a while away.
Alternate count : If the rally continues strongly, our view will change to this rally being a larger 3rd wave, which could mean that exceeding the all time high of 18,604 is just the 1st step to a massive upcoming rally.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 28 July 2022. CMP 16,641. Posted at 9:10 am.
Bottom line : Nifty appears headed up to 17,000 ~ 17,200 to complete a 3rd wave. Larger picture, Nifty headed to 18,000.
Primary count : Decline of last couple of days did not close the key gap at 16,359. Nifty remains on course in the current uptrend. 17,000 ~ 17,200 remains the conservative figure for the immediate rally to end, but 17,500 is also a possibility for completion of wave (iii).
Alternate count : The bearish triangle remains on the table, but looking slightly weakish if 16,752 is exceeded today.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 25 July 2022. CMP 16,600. Posted at 12:45 pm.
Bottom line : Bullish against 16,359 (primary count). Intermediate term bullish for above 18,000.
As long as 16,359 (continuation gap) is not filled, Nifty 50 remains bullish. But if 16,359 is seen first, alternate counts would need to be taken more seriously.
Primary count : Nifty remains in a 3rd wave (or 3rd of 3rd wave) towards 17,000 ~ 17,200.
Alternate 1 : In the event 16,359 is breached, downside towards 16,000 would open up in a potential sideways to higher movement of a bullish triangle within a larger bearish triangle.
Alternate count 2 : An upside breach of 16,793.50 is necessary to rule out this bearish count, which shows thrust lower from a bearish triangle. Until that happens, this count remains on the table.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 21 July 2022. CMP 16,540. Posted at 10 am.
Bottom line : As long as 15,359 is not tested in the near term, probability is for continuation of this rally towards 17,200 ~ 17,400, with a likely consolidation at 16,900.
Primary count : Similar short term structure to Bank Nifty, Nifty appears to be in a 3rd of 3rd wave advance towards 1st target 16,900. The continuation gap at 16,359, if tested, would likely result in consolidation / correction. But the trend appears strong, so at this stage a test of 16,359 is looking lower probability.
Alternate count : If price rallies above 16,794 that would effectively discard this bearish triangle count. Until then, this count remains on the table, looking weaker by the day.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Tues 19 July 2022. CMP 16,240. Posted at 9:55 am.
Bottom line : As long as yesterday's morning gap remains unfilled at 16,066, Nifty is looking very bullish. If the gap gets filled, only then would the alternates be back on the table.
Primary count : This count has been on the table for months now, shuffling between primary and alternate at various periods of time. Maybe it is time for it to re-establish itself as the primary count.
Under this count, price is in a 3rd of 3rd wave, which is usually powerful, and could be heading straight up towards the 17,000 level as the 1st stop, and eventually towards 18,000.
This count remains primary as long as the gap at 16,066 is not filled. See above 4 hour chart.
Alternate count 1 : If the gap at 16,066 does get filled soon, alternate counts 1 & 2 are back on the table. Much will depend on the manner of the decline to evaluate which of these 2 counts is then looking more likely.
Alternate count 2 : This shows price in a wave ii to the upside before falling hard in a 3rd wave down. Repeating as long as gap above is not filled, there is no need to consider either of the alternates.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 15 July 2022. CMP 15,940. Posted at 12:15 pm.
Bottom line : Near term, likely a bullish triangle is in progress, and Nifty should decline to below 15,700 before continuing higher. Intermediate term trend bias remains neutral to bullish.
Primary count : On the 45 minute chart, decline from 16,275 to 15,859 yesterday has likely completed just wave A of a 3 wave decline that would take Nifty to 15,650 level before resuming higher.
Next few sessions is likely to see Nifty in a relatively narrow range between 15,750 ~ 16,100.
Larger term hypothesis is that Nifty is in a larger bearish triangle, that should first move above 17,200 in a choppy manner before resuming the larger decline.
Alternate 1 : The lack of a 5 wave impulsive rally brings up this count from alternate 2 to alternate 1. This too shows a similar bullish triangle in the near term, followed by a thrust to complete wave ii and set the stage for a rapid decline in wave iii, on route to 14,200.
If Nifty declines below 15,511, it could mean that wave ii up is already complete and Nifty is heading lower in a strong 3rd wave.
Alternate 2 : This bullish count remains on the table but without a 5 wave impulsive rally on lower time frames, this count carries lower conviction at this stage.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Wed 13 July 2022. Posted at 10:35 am.
Bottom line : Bullish bias, either straight up or sideways to higher. Lack of a 5 wave impulsive rally does not allow the bearish count (alternate 2) be discarded.
Counts 1 & 2 may be used interchangeably. There is no preference between these 2. Likely resolution to these counts is likely this week, potentially even tomorrow morning, with US inflation data coming out this evening India time.
(Both these counts are certainly dependent on 15,185 not being violated.)
Count 1 (sideways to higher) : In the near term, a decline to 15,700 is possible in a small bullish triangle, which would bolster this count. The 3 day chart shows a choppy sideways to higher rally to above 17,000 (in wave C of a larger bearish triangle).
Count 2 (straight up higher in a 3rd wave) : This count shows price continuing higher in a 3rd wave towards 17,000 without a significant correction, en route to completion at about 18,000 (of a 5th wave of wave B of a larger flat correction)
Count 3 : Lack of an impulsive 5 wave rally keeps this count on the table. Thrust from the bearish triangle has already begun, and price is in a counter-trend wave ii which has already reached the 61.8% fibonacci retrace of wave i, and hence could end at any time. If this count plays out, the 14,000 ~ 14,200 levels could be seen sooner than expected.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 8 July 2022. CMP 16,200. Posted at 11:25 am.
Bottom line : What a difference a couple of days make. The immediate bearish count has been ruled out for now.
A big challenge has been not getting a bullish 5 wave impulse on any time frame in the last few days. Even the leading diagonals shown as wave 1 (or wave A) on the daily charts have not been clearly defined. This effectively means the intermediate term bearish count no. 2 still cannot be ruled out completely.
Count 1 : Intermediate term bullish towards 18,000. This shows price is in a strong 3rd wave to above 17,000 before there is any meaningful correction. 2 gap ups, both yesterday and today at the open, are positive towards this count, especially if neither is closed anytime soon.
Count 2 : Sideways to higher towards 17,000 ~ 17,500. Price could well continue up. But in case it does not, it helps to have a working hypothesis of a smaller bullish triangle. Even the recent rally from 15,511 to todays high at 16,275 has not been in 5 waves, which makes a correction soon to 15,750 level not an unreasonable possibility.
Count 3 : Bearish. This count remains on the back-burner for now. It cannot be ruled out completely due to the lack of a clean 5 wave impulsive rally.
Nifty 50 update. As on Wed 6 July 2022. CMP 15,990. Posted at 5:20 pm.
Bottom line : The ending diagonal pattern on the hourly chart must play out in it's entirety before taking short positions. Taking short positions too early and without confirmation is not advisable.
Primary count : The ending diagonal is still the favoured count, as long as 16,075 is not seen first.
This count demands a decline to below 15,750 in wave (4) very soon. If 16,075 is seen first, then the picture becomes muddied - it could be an expanding ending diagonal or the start of a sustained bullish rally.
Alternate count 1 : If 16,075 is seen first, a larger bearish triangle could be at play, where price is heading up to the 17,000 level in wave C.
Alternate count 2 : This count is very bullish and calls for a return to near the 18,000 level. For this, the primary count needs to be negated first to consider this seriously.
Nifty 50 update. As on Tues 5 July 2022. CMP 15,976. Posted at 1:30 pm.
Bottom line : The primary count remains bearish. Price needs a rally above 16,075, (without a dip first to below 15,750) to give the bullish counts a chance.
Primary count : On the hourly chart, an ending diagonal could be playing out. It is slightly early to be sure (a decline 15,700 level soon could confirm it). Ending diagonals are reversal patterns and on completion, result in a rapid move in the opposite direction. So a upward sloping ending diagonal, as in this case, would result in a rapid decline.
The daily chart shows wave ii counter-trend rally is reaching it's culmination, and should be followed by a strong wave iii down towards 14,500 and subsequently 14,000 ~ 14,200.
Alternate count 1 : This shows a potential large bearish triangle, where price moves sideways to higher towards 17,000. Price needs to rally soon to validate this count.
Alternate count 2 : This is highly bullish. But for both alternate counts, price patterns aren't providing any confirmation signals / breach of important levels. A sharp rally is required to rule out the primary count.
Nifty Update. As on Sat 2 July 2022. CMP 15,752. Posted at 11 am.
Rubber meets the road. The coming week should tell us a good deal whether Nifty is in for a surprise rally to 17,000 or whether the bearish trend will accelerate.
Bottom line : If Nifty rallies strongly in the next few days without much sideways movement, expect a return to the 17,000 level, and maybe higher.
Given how bearish sentiment has become, a rally is not out of the question. For now we stick to the primary bearish count until price action provides sufficient evidence to switch to the alternates.
Primary count (bearish) : thrust from a larger bearish triangle has completed wave i down, and is currently in a counter-trend rally in wave ii towards 16,200 roughly (see 3 day and daily).
On the 2 hour chart, price appears to be in a small bullish triangle which would subsequently thrust out towards 16,200 to complete wave c (of wave ii), and set the stage for a rapid decline in wave iii towards 14,300 ~ 14,400 and eventually towards 14,000 ~ 14,200.
Alternate count 1 (sideways to higher to above 17,000) : Under this count, Nifty should begin a strong rally immediately to 16,400 ~ 16,500 in wave 3. This would turn into a 5 wave impulse rally to complete wave A at 16,600 ~ 16,700, before a temporary consolidation / correction begins in wave B.
Alternate count 2 (bullish to 18,000) : This count would essentially follow the same short term pattern as Alternate count 1, the big difference being the wave 3 that could be commencing now would be ultra-strong, and take price to the 17,400 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on 30 June 2022. CMP 15,780. Posted at 4 pm.
Bottom line : Uptrend from 15,185 has been very choppy. An upward diagonal (wedge shape) maybe playing out.
If this wedge shape is a ending diagonal, then Nifty is nearing exhaustion, and would commence a rapid fall sometime towards the end of next week (count 1).
If this wedge is a leading diagonal, then Nifty has more sideways to upward to come (count 2 or count 3).
No preference between counts at the moment.
Count 1 : Nifty is in the process of thrusting lower from a bearish triangle. Wave 1 completed at 15,185, and price is currently in wave 2 to the upside.
Hourly chart shows price could be unfolding as an ending diagonal, which could reach the 16,100 ~ 16,150 level before collapsing hard.
Count 2 : Sideways to higher. On the hourly, this count shows a potential leading diagonal complete as wave A (or wave 1) and price is currently in wave B to the downside. This count shows price in a larger bearish triangle, and is in currently wave C to the upside towards 17,000. This count remains valid as long as 15,185 is not breached.
Count 3 : This count displays an expanded flat correction in wave B towards 18,000. But as the rally from 15,185 has been choppy, and until there is some concrete bullish pattern, this count remains a distant alternate at this time.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 24 June 2022. CMP 15,699. Posted at 5:30 pm.
Bottom line : Temporary low appears to be in place at 15,185. The ability of Bank Nifty to hold the March low of 32,155 low has been important. Additionally, the S&P 500 appears to have formed a temporary low at 3636, so at least the U.S. indices are unlikely to be a pain point for Indian indices for a few weeks.
A lot will depend on how the structure of price unfolds in the coming weeks to determine which of the below 3 counts has the highest probability of playing out.
New subscribers should note a couple of points :
- All roads lead eventually to 14,200. The only question is when, not if... and what route Nifty will take to get there.
- Wave 1 of primary or cycle degree completed at 18,604. Price likely has at least a year of consolidation ahead, and maybe more.
No preference between counts now, hence are labelled Count 1, Count 2 etc instead of Primary and Alternate.
Count 1 : From previous post of Monday 20 June "A bounce could be on the cards."
This count shows a thrust from a bearish triangle has begun, and has likely completed wave 1 of 5 to the downside. After a rally to 15,800 ~ 16,200 in wave ii, Nifty could resume it's decline towards 14,200.
Count 2 : This count is more complicated but valid nonetheless. This displays a sideways to higher movement in Nifty for several months in a bearish triangle before it thrust's lower to the 14,000 ~ 14,200 level.
Count 3 : This shows a rally back to the 18,000 level, which neccessarily must unfold in a 5 wave impulse to complete a larger wave B flat. Subsequently, a decline in 5 waves to 14,200 level to complete a larger wave C.
For this, a 5 wave impulsive rally on the lower time frames would be helpful as confirmation. A choppy sideways rally would not help this count.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 20 June 2022. CMP 15,340. Posted at 12:10 pm.
Bottom line : A bounce could be on the cards. Bank Nifty's ability to hold the 32,155 level is preventing a call for outright short term bearishness. The bullish counts Alt 1 & 2 would likely be discarded if bank nifty breaks 32,155.
Primary count : Price is thrusting lower from a bearish triangle. Wave i of a 5 wave decline could be complete at 15,185. This calls for a bounce to the 15,800 ~ 16,300 level in wave 2 before wave 3 to the downside commences. Eventual target for this is about 14,000 ~ 14,200 level.
Alternate 1 : Wave B of a bearish triangle could be complete, and price has begun a choppy move up to the 17,000 level.
Alternate count 2 : This count requires serious confirmation, and is admittedly a distant alternate for the time being, but it is a possibility. This calls for a rally to nearer the 18,000 level in a flat correction.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Wed 15 June 2022. CMP 15,700. Posted at 10:15 pm.
Bottom line : Neutral to bearish. As mentioned earlier, 14,200 is high probability to be seen eventually. The only question is whether Nifty will see a substantial bounce first.
With Nifty breaking 15,671, there is a bearish bias. But there are a couple of points of interest.
- Non-confirmation of new lows in Bank Nifty, Nifty Next 50, and Nifty Midcaps. This is odd. Weakness should have been more pronounced in the weaker scrips, not in the main index.
- Nifty tested 15,671 briefly when it reached 15,661 but recovered immediately. But given how near price is to this level, the bearish bias remains intact.
- The charts show all options on the table - bullish, sideways, and bearish.
- In case of a gap down or decline on all the above indices this week to below previous lows will quickly re-emphasise the bearish primary count.
Primary Count (Bearish soon) : Bearish triangle is complete, and price has begun a thrust lower to the 14,200 level.
Alternate count 1 (sideways to higher) : If a temporary low is in place, and there is no confirmation it is, this count allows for sideways to higher to above 17K in a larger bearish triangle before it thrusts down to 14,200.
Alternate 2 (significant bullish first, then bearish) : This shows a flat correction in wave (b) light blue where price would rally in 5 waves to near the 18,000 level. For this count, a clear bullish pattern on the lower time frames is required for confirmation.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 13 June 2022. CMP 15,780. Posted at 11 am.
Bottom line : 15,671 is a key level. A break of this would confirm the descent towards 14,200 has begun.
Friday's break of 16,200 warned us near term could be heading lower. That has transpired with a large gap down today. Until 15,671 is broken, there still remains a small possibility that a bounce to above 17K can materialize, but it is not high confidence at this point.
Primary Count : Price appears to have begun it's thrust lower from a bearish triangle. A break of 15,671 is needed to confirm.
Alternate count : As long as 15,671 holds, there still remains a possibility, however low, for this count to play out. This bounce to above 17,000 would delay the decline to 14,200 by a few weeks to a few months.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 9 June 2022. CMP 16,330. Posted at 10:10 am.
Bottom line : Still bullish as long as 16,200 is not violated. If 16,200 is violated, we will consider switching to a bearish count.
Count 1 : We are fast running out of bullish patterns. At this stage, the one realistic bullish pattern still available is a final zigzag to come in a triple zigzag to nearer the 17,000 level.
On the hourly chart, an ending diagonal is complete or nearing completion. This calls for a rapid rally to above 16,793 after completion of the ending diagonal.
A decline first below 16,200 would invalidate this count, and would result in a switch to the bearish alternate count.
Alternate count : This shows the bearish triangle is already complete, and price could begin a thrust lower towards the 14,200 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 6 June 2022. CMP 16,515. Posted at 10:20 am.
Bottom line : Under either count, at least more high to come above 16,793 in the near term.
Intermediate term : 14,200 is likely. The only question is whether Nifty will first rally to 18K or commence its decline in the near future.
Both counts have equal probabability at this stage.
Count 1 : Nifty is rallying towards 16,900 ~ 17,400 in wave E of a larger bearish triangle.
This wave E is unfolding as a triple zigzag to the upside. On the 4 hour chart, Nifty appears to be in a bullish triangle in the 2nd wave X of W-X-Y-X-Z.
Count 2 : This count shows Nifty rallying towards above 18K first before a decline to the 14,200 level.
In the near term, price could be tracing out a 5 wave impulse in wave 1 on the 4 hour chart.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 2 June 2022. CMP 16,540. Posted at 11:05 am.
Bottom line : Short term bullish. Preference is for gap at 16,370 to not be closed.
Either count below is equally probable.
Count 1 : This count shows that Nifty is beginning a 3rd of 3rd wave up on the 4 hour chart towards 17,500. Larger target for this flat is above 18,095.
Count 2 : This count is far more nuanced. Price is in wave E of a bearish triangle. Under this wave E, a double zigzag is already complete, but has not travelled too far nor taken too much time. So the probability is that 16,900 - 17,000 level could be reached in a triple zigzag. But pls be aware that the minimum requirement for wave E has already been met, so a thrust down towards 14,200 is possible at any time.
Nifty Update. As on Wed June 1 2022. CMP 16,620. Posted at 11 am.
Bottom line : Bullish short term.
Island Reversal Pattern : Gap down, then 16 trading sessions of sideways to lower price action, before a gap up to a similar level from where there was a gap down. Essentially there is overlap of the gap up and gap down. This makes the 16 sessions an island reversal. This is a strong bullish signal, and the preference is for the recent gap from 16,370 to not be closed anytime soon.
Count 1 : Price could be in wave iii of a flat correction that would take Nifty to above 18,100.
Count 2 : Price is in wave E of a bearish triangle. From earlier posts : A double zigzag would take Nifty to 16,500 ~ 16,700. A triple zigzag would take Nifty to 16,900 ~ 17,300.
In the very short term, the rally does not seem to be complete. 16,700 is looking likely, based on the very short term wave counts (not shown).
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 27 May 2022. CMP 16,300. Posted at 10 am.
Bottom line : Correlating Indian benchmark indices with the Nasdaq has now become the focal point for a likely end to a global rally that has begun a day or 2 ago. Why Nasdaq ? Because it is the only one of the major indices (or at least from the indices we cover) that shows a clear 5 wave impulsive decline from 16K to 11K. It is now upwardly correcting this 5 wave decline. Will post on Nasdaq again soon, but the last post is worth a read.
If we simply follow the Nasdaq, then the global rally has a large rally ahead. But will Nifty follow or turn down sooner ?
Nifty 50 Intermediate term count 1 :
A large flat correction that would take Nifty all the way back to at least 18,300 to complete wave b, before a significant decline kicks in towards the 14,200 level.
Nifty Short Term Count 1 : Price could be tracing out a leading diagonal in wave i to above 16,414 before a correction in wave ii sets in.
Nifty Intermediate count wave 2 : Nifty is in wave e of a bearish triangle to potentially 17,000 roughly before a decline to the 14,200 level commences.
Nifty Short Term count 2 A : New high above 16,414 would complete an ending diagonal and set the stage for a rapid decline to 14,200.
Nifty Short Term count 2 B : This count allows for further upside in wave E of the bearish triangle towards 17,000, but could end before that as well.
This count shows wave E unfolding as a double zigzag (or triple zigzag). A double zigzag would take Nifty to 16,500 ~ 16,700. A triple zigzag would take Nifty to 16,900 ~ 17,300.
Nifty 50 Update. As on 25 May 2022. CMP 16,130. Posted at 10:40 am.
Bottom line : Price is in a large wave 2 correction. 14,200 is a matter of time. One count allows for an upward test of 18K first before a significant decline. The other calls for a decline in not-too-distant future.
Count 1 : If Nifty is in a bearish triangle, the minimum requirement of 16,410 has been met. But wave E is short in terms of time. Small further rallies to 16,500 ~ 16,700 (or even upto 17,200) could complete wave E and set the stage for a decline to the 14,200 level.
Count 2 : Nifty could be in the early stages of a strong rally to the upside - in wave (c) of a larger b wave. For this we need to see some kind of clear 5 wave impulse on the short term charts, which is not visible as yet. The rally from the recent low of 15,737 to the recent high of 16,414 has been very choppy and not in 5 waves. But this count cannot be ruled out as yet, as an impulse could still develop.
If this count plays out, a decline to the 14,200 would be pushed back by a few months.
Market Commentary. As on Mon 23 May 2022.
Discussion of co-relationships between Nasdaq, Nifty, and Bank Nifty.
Bottom line : Short term bullish and Intermediate term bearish.
Starting off with Nasdaq : There is a clear 5 wave impulse down from 16K to 11K. We take this very seriously. If companies like Alphabet (Google), Facebook, Microsoft etc are going to decline significantly, then it is most unlikely Indian companies and indices will be spared. Moreover, the patterns on the indian indices are also relatively clear although there is no 5 wave impulse to the downside.
Nasdaq formed a 5 wave impulsive decline with the 5th wave as the largest wave. Within the 5th wave, it’s own sub-divisions show the 5th wave was also extended. This could mean a rapid rally in the Nasdaq back to the 61% – 78% fibonacci retrace at 14,500 ~ 15,500 levels, which also coincides with 4th wave of lower degree. This makes it an important resistance level. As long as Nasdaq does not exceed the all time high of 16,765, the 5 wave impulse remains an extremely important signal.
Bank Nifty : Since Nasdaq is the clearest of the major indices we have, a correlation with it would be a sensible way forward to deal with both Nifty & Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty has 2 counts, both are short term bullish to at least 36-37K. One of the counts calls for new all time highs above 42K.
2 seperate counts shown below.
Nifty also has 2 options. Both of which are short term bullish. One of the options calls for a rally above 18,300. See previous Nifty post for short term analysis.
2 seperate counts shown below.
Conclusion : With a major index like Nasdaq providing a clear signal, it would be unwise to ignore it. At least another 5 wave down below the recent low of 11,492 is on the cards, but first a significant upward retrace (rally) is likely.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 19 May 2022. CMP 15,917 . Posted at 9:13 am.
Bottom line : Large gap down due to U.S. indices tanking overnight. Until there is further evidence, the 15,671 (and hopefully) 15,737 level are expected to hold.
Primary count : The large gap down effectively makes it unlikely the clear impulsive rallies that we saw until yesterday will continue. This also likely means the large bearish triangle now takes precedence over the other count.
As long as 15,737 holds, Price is in a choppy rally in wave E of bearish triangle to the upside that will be punctuated by sharp declines.
Below is a projected path. If a double zigzag (WXY), wave E could reach the 16,600-16,700 level. If a triple zigzag, price could reach the 16,900 level.
Alternate count : If 15,671 is breached, then further possibilities open up. This count is just one of them. This shows price in a large bearish triangle in wave X.
Nifty 50 Update. As on 17 May 2022. CMP 16,200. Posted at 2:30 pm.
Bottom line : The 15,671 level and the 15,737 level held. Upwards and onwards till above 17K is the expectation. To avoid any unexpected further short term lows, an upside breach of 16,404 would confirm.
Count 1 : Rally to 18,000 ~ 18,100 in wave b of a flat correction.
Count 2 : Bearish triangle. Minimum requirement is 16,410 to complete wave e of the bearish triangle, but more likely is a rally to 17,000 in wave E.
Market Commentary. As on Thurs 12 May 2022.
We have a situation where Nifty and Bank Nifty are in conflict. In our experience, Bank Nifty usually wins out, but not always. As in all things market, anything can happen, but is useful to be aware of. Let us see if this conflict can be reconciled in any way.
Bank Nifty has an interesting pattern where a bullish triangle may be complete or almost complete. Whether today’s low has completed wave E, time will tell. A strong bullish pattern from here on BN may be just the tonic for Nifty to also test the 18,100 level.
The problem with this is if new highs are expected in bank nifty that means an upside of 25% from current levels. This may be a stretch, but it is possible as long as 32,155 (wave C of triangle) is not violated.
There is a way to reconcile Nifty and Bank Nifty : It is that Bank Nifty ends with a truncation at about 38K ~ 39K in 5 waves, but falls short of new highs in its larger 5th wave, i.e. does not exceed 41,827.
This would then bring back focus into the Nifty alternate count where a test of 18,000 ~ 18,100 could be on the cards.
It is early to say, as 15,671 needs to hold first. Now lets deal with what happens if 15,671 gives way ? Read below.
If 15,671 gives way, it is not necessarily one way bearish. There could still be significant bounces in the interim, with wave X taking the shape of a large bearish triangle, or even an expanded flat which would test the 18,000 ~ 18,100 level.
Preferred count as long as 15,671 is not violated is the one shown this morning, which shows a bounce soon to above 17K.