Nifty 50 Update. As on 1 Aug 2022. CMP 17,340. Posted at 4:30 pm.
Bottom line : With price acceleration, it appears Nifty could make new all time highs above 18,604, maybe sooner than expected.
Count 1 : The slope of the latest rally has accelerated since the last swing low at 16,439, which is looking a lot like Nifty is in a powerful 3rd of 3rd of 3rd wave.
Under this count, Nifty will eventually reach well above 24,000.
But a little bit of caution is required, as this powerful rally could still be a B wave, potentially to new all time highs, to be followed by a large decline. For now there doesn't seem to be anything to halt this rally.
Count 2 : This count shows the immediate rally could end this week, and decline to below 16,700 before a final rally above 18,100 to complete an expanded flat and set the stage for a 5 wave decline to the 14,200 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 29 July 2022. CMP 17,100. Posted at 11:20 am.
Bottom line : A small degree 3rd wave is complete or close to completion. Today's gap up could spell the end of the immediate rally.
Intermediate term 18,000 is on the cards.
If price continues sailing higher, Count 2 (even more bullish) may become preferred.
The larger bearish triangle has been effectively discarded. See chart.
Both below counts are bullish, and effectively send the same message. The only difference is how much further above 18,000 Nifty will go.
Primary : Under this count, for the next 2-3 weeks, Nifty is expected to trade in a range of 16,550 ~ 17,200, as price commences a 4th wave correction / consolidation.
Near term, Nifty has reached the target zone of 17,000 ~ 17,200. Under this count, Nifty is likely to fill today's second exhaustion gap at 16,943, and eventually fill the first exhaustion gap of yesterday at 16,652. The continuation gap of 16,359 is likely to remain safe and un-filled until Nifty begins a larger term decline which is still a while away.
Alternate count : If the rally continues strongly, our view will change to this rally being a larger 3rd wave, which could mean that exceeding the all time high of 18,604 is just the 1st step to a massive upcoming rally.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 28 July 2022. CMP 16,641. Posted at 9:10 am.
Bottom line : Nifty appears headed up to 17,000 ~ 17,200 to complete a 3rd wave. Larger picture, Nifty headed to 18,000.
Primary count : Decline of last couple of days did not close the key gap at 16,359. Nifty remains on course in the current uptrend. 17,000 ~ 17,200 remains the conservative figure for the immediate rally to end, but 17,500 is also a possibility for completion of wave (iii).
Alternate count : The bearish triangle remains on the table, but looking slightly weakish if 16,752 is exceeded today.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 25 July 2022. CMP 16,600. Posted at 12:45 pm.
Bottom line : Bullish against 16,359 (primary count). Intermediate term bullish for above 18,000.
As long as 16,359 (continuation gap) is not filled, Nifty 50 remains bullish. But if 16,359 is seen first, alternate counts would need to be taken more seriously.
Primary count : Nifty remains in a 3rd wave (or 3rd of 3rd wave) towards 17,000 ~ 17,200.
Alternate 1 : In the event 16,359 is breached, downside towards 16,000 would open up in a potential sideways to higher movement of a bullish triangle within a larger bearish triangle.
Alternate count 2 : An upside breach of 16,793.50 is necessary to rule out this bearish count, which shows thrust lower from a bearish triangle. Until that happens, this count remains on the table.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 21 July 2022. CMP 16,540. Posted at 10 am.
Bottom line : As long as 15,359 is not tested in the near term, probability is for continuation of this rally towards 17,200 ~ 17,400, with a likely consolidation at 16,900.
Primary count : Similar short term structure to Bank Nifty, Nifty appears to be in a 3rd of 3rd wave advance towards 1st target 16,900. The continuation gap at 16,359, if tested, would likely result in consolidation / correction. But the trend appears strong, so at this stage a test of 16,359 is looking lower probability.
Alternate count : If price rallies above 16,794 that would effectively discard this bearish triangle count. Until then, this count remains on the table, looking weaker by the day.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Tues 19 July 2022. CMP 16,240. Posted at 9:55 am.
Bottom line : As long as yesterday's morning gap remains unfilled at 16,066, Nifty is looking very bullish. If the gap gets filled, only then would the alternates be back on the table.
Primary count : This count has been on the table for months now, shuffling between primary and alternate at various periods of time. Maybe it is time for it to re-establish itself as the primary count.
Under this count, price is in a 3rd of 3rd wave, which is usually powerful, and could be heading straight up towards the 17,000 level as the 1st stop, and eventually towards 18,000.
This count remains primary as long as the gap at 16,066 is not filled. See above 4 hour chart.
Alternate count 1 : If the gap at 16,066 does get filled soon, alternate counts 1 & 2 are back on the table. Much will depend on the manner of the decline to evaluate which of these 2 counts is then looking more likely.
Alternate count 2 : This shows price in a wave ii to the upside before falling hard in a 3rd wave down. Repeating as long as gap above is not filled, there is no need to consider either of the alternates.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 15 July 2022. CMP 15,940. Posted at 12:15 pm.
Bottom line : Near term, likely a bullish triangle is in progress, and Nifty should decline to below 15,700 before continuing higher. Intermediate term trend bias remains neutral to bullish.
Primary count : On the 45 minute chart, decline from 16,275 to 15,859 yesterday has likely completed just wave A of a 3 wave decline that would take Nifty to 15,650 level before resuming higher.
Next few sessions is likely to see Nifty in a relatively narrow range between 15,750 ~ 16,100.
Larger term hypothesis is that Nifty is in a larger bearish triangle, that should first move above 17,200 in a choppy manner before resuming the larger decline.
Alternate 1 : The lack of a 5 wave impulsive rally brings up this count from alternate 2 to alternate 1. This too shows a similar bullish triangle in the near term, followed by a thrust to complete wave ii and set the stage for a rapid decline in wave iii, on route to 14,200.
If Nifty declines below 15,511, it could mean that wave ii up is already complete and Nifty is heading lower in a strong 3rd wave.
Alternate 2 : This bullish count remains on the table but without a 5 wave impulsive rally on lower time frames, this count carries lower conviction at this stage.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Wed 13 July 2022. Posted at 10:35 am.
Bottom line : Bullish bias, either straight up or sideways to higher. Lack of a 5 wave impulsive rally does not allow the bearish count (alternate 2) be discarded.
Counts 1 & 2 may be used interchangeably. There is no preference between these 2. Likely resolution to these counts is likely this week, potentially even tomorrow morning, with US inflation data coming out this evening India time.
(Both these counts are certainly dependent on 15,185 not being violated.)
Count 1 (sideways to higher) : In the near term, a decline to 15,700 is possible in a small bullish triangle, which would bolster this count. The 3 day chart shows a choppy sideways to higher rally to above 17,000 (in wave C of a larger bearish triangle).
Count 2 (straight up higher in a 3rd wave) : This count shows price continuing higher in a 3rd wave towards 17,000 without a significant correction, en route to completion at about 18,000 (of a 5th wave of wave B of a larger flat correction)
Count 3 : Lack of an impulsive 5 wave rally keeps this count on the table. Thrust from the bearish triangle has already begun, and price is in a counter-trend wave ii which has already reached the 61.8% fibonacci retrace of wave i, and hence could end at any time. If this count plays out, the 14,000 ~ 14,200 levels could be seen sooner than expected.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 8 July 2022. CMP 16,200. Posted at 11:25 am.
Bottom line : What a difference a couple of days make. The immediate bearish count has been ruled out for now.
A big challenge has been not getting a bullish 5 wave impulse on any time frame in the last few days. Even the leading diagonals shown as wave 1 (or wave A) on the daily charts have not been clearly defined. This effectively means the intermediate term bearish count no. 2 still cannot be ruled out completely.
Count 1 : Intermediate term bullish towards 18,000. This shows price is in a strong 3rd wave to above 17,000 before there is any meaningful correction. 2 gap ups, both yesterday and today at the open, are positive towards this count, especially if neither is closed anytime soon.
Count 2 : Sideways to higher towards 17,000 ~ 17,500. Price could well continue up. But in case it does not, it helps to have a working hypothesis of a smaller bullish triangle. Even the recent rally from 15,511 to todays high at 16,275 has not been in 5 waves, which makes a correction soon to 15,750 level not an unreasonable possibility.
Count 3 : Bearish. This count remains on the back-burner for now. It cannot be ruled out completely due to the lack of a clean 5 wave impulsive rally.
Nifty 50 update. As on Wed 6 July 2022. CMP 15,990. Posted at 5:20 pm.
Bottom line : The ending diagonal pattern on the hourly chart must play out in it's entirety before taking short positions. Taking short positions too early and without confirmation is not advisable.
Primary count : The ending diagonal is still the favoured count, as long as 16,075 is not seen first.
This count demands a decline to below 15,750 in wave (4) very soon. If 16,075 is seen first, then the picture becomes muddied - it could be an expanding ending diagonal or the start of a sustained bullish rally.
Alternate count 1 : If 16,075 is seen first, a larger bearish triangle could be at play, where price is heading up to the 17,000 level in wave C.
Alternate count 2 : This count is very bullish and calls for a return to near the 18,000 level. For this, the primary count needs to be negated first to consider this seriously.
Nifty 50 update. As on Tues 5 July 2022. CMP 15,976. Posted at 1:30 pm.
Bottom line : The primary count remains bearish. Price needs a rally above 16,075, (without a dip first to below 15,750) to give the bullish counts a chance.
Primary count : On the hourly chart, an ending diagonal could be playing out. It is slightly early to be sure (a decline 15,700 level soon could confirm it). Ending diagonals are reversal patterns and on completion, result in a rapid move in the opposite direction. So a upward sloping ending diagonal, as in this case, would result in a rapid decline.
The daily chart shows wave ii counter-trend rally is reaching it's culmination, and should be followed by a strong wave iii down towards 14,500 and subsequently 14,000 ~ 14,200.
Alternate count 1 : This shows a potential large bearish triangle, where price moves sideways to higher towards 17,000. Price needs to rally soon to validate this count.
Alternate count 2 : This is highly bullish. But for both alternate counts, price patterns aren't providing any confirmation signals / breach of important levels. A sharp rally is required to rule out the primary count.
Nifty Update. As on Sat 2 July 2022. CMP 15,752. Posted at 11 am.
Rubber meets the road. The coming week should tell us a good deal whether Nifty is in for a surprise rally to 17,000 or whether the bearish trend will accelerate.
Bottom line : If Nifty rallies strongly in the next few days without much sideways movement, expect a return to the 17,000 level, and maybe higher.
Given how bearish sentiment has become, a rally is not out of the question. For now we stick to the primary bearish count until price action provides sufficient evidence to switch to the alternates.
Primary count (bearish) : thrust from a larger bearish triangle has completed wave i down, and is currently in a counter-trend rally in wave ii towards 16,200 roughly (see 3 day and daily).
On the 2 hour chart, price appears to be in a small bullish triangle which would subsequently thrust out towards 16,200 to complete wave c (of wave ii), and set the stage for a rapid decline in wave iii towards 14,300 ~ 14,400 and eventually towards 14,000 ~ 14,200.
Alternate count 1 (sideways to higher to above 17,000) : Under this count, Nifty should begin a strong rally immediately to 16,400 ~ 16,500 in wave 3. This would turn into a 5 wave impulse rally to complete wave A at 16,600 ~ 16,700, before a temporary consolidation / correction begins in wave B.
Alternate count 2 (bullish to 18,000) : This count would essentially follow the same short term pattern as Alternate count 1, the big difference being the wave 3 that could be commencing now would be ultra-strong, and take price to the 17,400 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on 30 June 2022. CMP 15,780. Posted at 4 pm.
Bottom line : Uptrend from 15,185 has been very choppy. An upward diagonal (wedge shape) maybe playing out.
If this wedge shape is a ending diagonal, then Nifty is nearing exhaustion, and would commence a rapid fall sometime towards the end of next week (count 1).
If this wedge is a leading diagonal, then Nifty has more sideways to upward to come (count 2 or count 3).
No preference between counts at the moment.
Count 1 : Nifty is in the process of thrusting lower from a bearish triangle. Wave 1 completed at 15,185, and price is currently in wave 2 to the upside.
Hourly chart shows price could be unfolding as an ending diagonal, which could reach the 16,100 ~ 16,150 level before collapsing hard.
Count 2 : Sideways to higher. On the hourly, this count shows a potential leading diagonal complete as wave A (or wave 1) and price is currently in wave B to the downside. This count shows price in a larger bearish triangle, and is in currently wave C to the upside towards 17,000. This count remains valid as long as 15,185 is not breached.
Count 3 : This count displays an expanded flat correction in wave B towards 18,000. But as the rally from 15,185 has been choppy, and until there is some concrete bullish pattern, this count remains a distant alternate at this time.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 24 June 2022. CMP 15,699. Posted at 5:30 pm.
Bottom line : Temporary low appears to be in place at 15,185. The ability of Bank Nifty to hold the March low of 32,155 low has been important. Additionally, the S&P 500 appears to have formed a temporary low at 3636, so at least the U.S. indices are unlikely to be a pain point for Indian indices for a few weeks.
A lot will depend on how the structure of price unfolds in the coming weeks to determine which of the below 3 counts has the highest probability of playing out.
New subscribers should note a couple of points :
- All roads lead eventually to 14,200. The only question is when, not if... and what route Nifty will take to get there.
- Wave 1 of primary or cycle degree completed at 18,604. Price likely has at least a year of consolidation ahead, and maybe more.
No preference between counts now, hence are labelled Count 1, Count 2 etc instead of Primary and Alternate.
Count 1 : From previous post of Monday 20 June "A bounce could be on the cards."
This count shows a thrust from a bearish triangle has begun, and has likely completed wave 1 of 5 to the downside. After a rally to 15,800 ~ 16,200 in wave ii, Nifty could resume it's decline towards 14,200.
Count 2 : This count is more complicated but valid nonetheless. This displays a sideways to higher movement in Nifty for several months in a bearish triangle before it thrust's lower to the 14,000 ~ 14,200 level.
Count 3 : This shows a rally back to the 18,000 level, which neccessarily must unfold in a 5 wave impulse to complete a larger wave B flat. Subsequently, a decline in 5 waves to 14,200 level to complete a larger wave C.
For this, a 5 wave impulsive rally on the lower time frames would be helpful as confirmation. A choppy sideways rally would not help this count.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 20 June 2022. CMP 15,340. Posted at 12:10 pm.
Bottom line : A bounce could be on the cards. Bank Nifty's ability to hold the 32,155 level is preventing a call for outright short term bearishness. The bullish counts Alt 1 & 2 would likely be discarded if bank nifty breaks 32,155.
Primary count : Price is thrusting lower from a bearish triangle. Wave i of a 5 wave decline could be complete at 15,185. This calls for a bounce to the 15,800 ~ 16,300 level in wave 2 before wave 3 to the downside commences. Eventual target for this is about 14,000 ~ 14,200 level.
Alternate 1 : Wave B of a bearish triangle could be complete, and price has begun a choppy move up to the 17,000 level.
Alternate count 2 : This count requires serious confirmation, and is admittedly a distant alternate for the time being, but it is a possibility. This calls for a rally to nearer the 18,000 level in a flat correction.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Wed 15 June 2022. CMP 15,700. Posted at 10:15 pm.
Bottom line : Neutral to bearish. As mentioned earlier, 14,200 is high probability to be seen eventually. The only question is whether Nifty will see a substantial bounce first.
With Nifty breaking 15,671, there is a bearish bias. But there are a couple of points of interest.
- Non-confirmation of new lows in Bank Nifty, Nifty Next 50, and Nifty Midcaps. This is odd. Weakness should have been more pronounced in the weaker scrips, not in the main index.
- Nifty tested 15,671 briefly when it reached 15,661 but recovered immediately. But given how near price is to this level, the bearish bias remains intact.
- The charts show all options on the table - bullish, sideways, and bearish.
- In case of a gap down or decline on all the above indices this week to below previous lows will quickly re-emphasise the bearish primary count.
Primary Count (Bearish soon) : Bearish triangle is complete, and price has begun a thrust lower to the 14,200 level.
Alternate count 1 (sideways to higher) : If a temporary low is in place, and there is no confirmation it is, this count allows for sideways to higher to above 17K in a larger bearish triangle before it thrusts down to 14,200.
Alternate 2 (significant bullish first, then bearish) : This shows a flat correction in wave (b) light blue where price would rally in 5 waves to near the 18,000 level. For this count, a clear bullish pattern on the lower time frames is required for confirmation.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 13 June 2022. CMP 15,780. Posted at 11 am.
Bottom line : 15,671 is a key level. A break of this would confirm the descent towards 14,200 has begun.
Friday's break of 16,200 warned us near term could be heading lower. That has transpired with a large gap down today. Until 15,671 is broken, there still remains a small possibility that a bounce to above 17K can materialize, but it is not high confidence at this point.
Primary Count : Price appears to have begun it's thrust lower from a bearish triangle. A break of 15,671 is needed to confirm.
Alternate count : As long as 15,671 holds, there still remains a possibility, however low, for this count to play out. This bounce to above 17,000 would delay the decline to 14,200 by a few weeks to a few months.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 9 June 2022. CMP 16,330. Posted at 10:10 am.
Bottom line : Still bullish as long as 16,200 is not violated. If 16,200 is violated, we will consider switching to a bearish count.
Count 1 : We are fast running out of bullish patterns. At this stage, the one realistic bullish pattern still available is a final zigzag to come in a triple zigzag to nearer the 17,000 level.
On the hourly chart, an ending diagonal is complete or nearing completion. This calls for a rapid rally to above 16,793 after completion of the ending diagonal.
A decline first below 16,200 would invalidate this count, and would result in a switch to the bearish alternate count.
Alternate count : This shows the bearish triangle is already complete, and price could begin a thrust lower towards the 14,200 level.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Mon 6 June 2022. CMP 16,515. Posted at 10:20 am.
Bottom line : Under either count, at least more high to come above 16,793 in the near term.
Intermediate term : 14,200 is likely. The only question is whether Nifty will first rally to 18K or commence its decline in the near future.
Both counts have equal probabability at this stage.
Count 1 : Nifty is rallying towards 16,900 ~ 17,400 in wave E of a larger bearish triangle.
This wave E is unfolding as a triple zigzag to the upside. On the 4 hour chart, Nifty appears to be in a bullish triangle in the 2nd wave X of W-X-Y-X-Z.
Count 2 : This count shows Nifty rallying towards above 18K first before a decline to the 14,200 level.
In the near term, price could be tracing out a 5 wave impulse in wave 1 on the 4 hour chart.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 2 June 2022. CMP 16,540. Posted at 11:05 am.
Bottom line : Short term bullish. Preference is for gap at 16,370 to not be closed.
Either count below is equally probable.
Count 1 : This count shows that Nifty is beginning a 3rd of 3rd wave up on the 4 hour chart towards 17,500. Larger target for this flat is above 18,095.
Count 2 : This count is far more nuanced. Price is in wave E of a bearish triangle. Under this wave E, a double zigzag is already complete, but has not travelled too far nor taken too much time. So the probability is that 16,900 - 17,000 level could be reached in a triple zigzag. But pls be aware that the minimum requirement for wave E has already been met, so a thrust down towards 14,200 is possible at any time.
Nifty Update. As on Wed June 1 2022. CMP 16,620. Posted at 11 am.
Bottom line : Bullish short term.
Island Reversal Pattern : Gap down, then 16 trading sessions of sideways to lower price action, before a gap up to a similar level from where there was a gap down. Essentially there is overlap of the gap up and gap down. This makes the 16 sessions an island reversal. This is a strong bullish signal, and the preference is for the recent gap from 16,370 to not be closed anytime soon.
Count 1 : Price could be in wave iii of a flat correction that would take Nifty to above 18,100.
Count 2 : Price is in wave E of a bearish triangle. From earlier posts : A double zigzag would take Nifty to 16,500 ~ 16,700. A triple zigzag would take Nifty to 16,900 ~ 17,300.
In the very short term, the rally does not seem to be complete. 16,700 is looking likely, based on the very short term wave counts (not shown).
Nifty 50 Update. As on Fri 27 May 2022. CMP 16,300. Posted at 10 am.
Bottom line : Correlating Indian benchmark indices with the Nasdaq has now become the focal point for a likely end to a global rally that has begun a day or 2 ago. Why Nasdaq ? Because it is the only one of the major indices (or at least from the indices we cover) that shows a clear 5 wave impulsive decline from 16K to 11K. It is now upwardly correcting this 5 wave decline. Will post on Nasdaq again soon, but the last post is worth a read.
If we simply follow the Nasdaq, then the global rally has a large rally ahead. But will Nifty follow or turn down sooner ?
Nifty 50 Intermediate term count 1 :
A large flat correction that would take Nifty all the way back to at least 18,300 to complete wave b, before a significant decline kicks in towards the 14,200 level.
Nifty Short Term Count 1 : Price could be tracing out a leading diagonal in wave i to above 16,414 before a correction in wave ii sets in.
Nifty Intermediate count wave 2 : Nifty is in wave e of a bearish triangle to potentially 17,000 roughly before a decline to the 14,200 level commences.
Nifty Short Term count 2 A : New high above 16,414 would complete an ending diagonal and set the stage for a rapid decline to 14,200.
Nifty Short Term count 2 B : This count allows for further upside in wave E of the bearish triangle towards 17,000, but could end before that as well.
This count shows wave E unfolding as a double zigzag (or triple zigzag). A double zigzag would take Nifty to 16,500 ~ 16,700. A triple zigzag would take Nifty to 16,900 ~ 17,300.
Nifty 50 Update. As on 25 May 2022. CMP 16,130. Posted at 10:40 am.
Bottom line : Price is in a large wave 2 correction. 14,200 is a matter of time. One count allows for an upward test of 18K first before a significant decline. The other calls for a decline in not-too-distant future.
Count 1 : If Nifty is in a bearish triangle, the minimum requirement of 16,410 has been met. But wave E is short in terms of time. Small further rallies to 16,500 ~ 16,700 (or even upto 17,200) could complete wave E and set the stage for a decline to the 14,200 level.
Count 2 : Nifty could be in the early stages of a strong rally to the upside - in wave (c) of a larger b wave. For this we need to see some kind of clear 5 wave impulse on the short term charts, which is not visible as yet. The rally from the recent low of 15,737 to the recent high of 16,414 has been very choppy and not in 5 waves. But this count cannot be ruled out as yet, as an impulse could still develop.
If this count plays out, a decline to the 14,200 would be pushed back by a few months.
Market Commentary. As on Mon 23 May 2022.
Discussion of co-relationships between Nasdaq, Nifty, and Bank Nifty.
Bottom line : Short term bullish and Intermediate term bearish.
Starting off with Nasdaq : There is a clear 5 wave impulse down from 16K to 11K. We take this very seriously. If companies like Alphabet (Google), Facebook, Microsoft etc are going to decline significantly, then it is most unlikely Indian companies and indices will be spared. Moreover, the patterns on the indian indices are also relatively clear although there is no 5 wave impulse to the downside.
Nasdaq formed a 5 wave impulsive decline with the 5th wave as the largest wave. Within the 5th wave, it’s own sub-divisions show the 5th wave was also extended. This could mean a rapid rally in the Nasdaq back to the 61% – 78% fibonacci retrace at 14,500 ~ 15,500 levels, which also coincides with 4th wave of lower degree. This makes it an important resistance level. As long as Nasdaq does not exceed the all time high of 16,765, the 5 wave impulse remains an extremely important signal.
Bank Nifty : Since Nasdaq is the clearest of the major indices we have, a correlation with it would be a sensible way forward to deal with both Nifty & Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty has 2 counts, both are short term bullish to at least 36-37K. One of the counts calls for new all time highs above 42K.
2 seperate counts shown below.
Nifty also has 2 options. Both of which are short term bullish. One of the options calls for a rally above 18,300. See previous Nifty post for short term analysis.
2 seperate counts shown below.
Conclusion : With a major index like Nasdaq providing a clear signal, it would be unwise to ignore it. At least another 5 wave down below the recent low of 11,492 is on the cards, but first a significant upward retrace (rally) is likely.
Nifty 50 Update. As on Thurs 19 May 2022. CMP 15,917 . Posted at 9:13 am.
Bottom line : Large gap down due to U.S. indices tanking overnight. Until there is further evidence, the 15,671 (and hopefully) 15,737 level are expected to hold.
Primary count : The large gap down effectively makes it unlikely the clear impulsive rallies that we saw until yesterday will continue. This also likely means the large bearish triangle now takes precedence over the other count.
As long as 15,737 holds, Price is in a choppy rally in wave E of bearish triangle to the upside that will be punctuated by sharp declines.
Below is a projected path. If a double zigzag (WXY), wave E could reach the 16,600-16,700 level. If a triple zigzag, price could reach the 16,900 level.
Alternate count : If 15,671 is breached, then further possibilities open up. This count is just one of them. This shows price in a large bearish triangle in wave X.
Nifty 50 Update. As on 17 May 2022. CMP 16,200. Posted at 2:30 pm.
Bottom line : The 15,671 level and the 15,737 level held. Upwards and onwards till above 17K is the expectation. To avoid any unexpected further short term lows, an upside breach of 16,404 would confirm.
Count 1 : Rally to 18,000 ~ 18,100 in wave b of a flat correction.
Count 2 : Bearish triangle. Minimum requirement is 16,410 to complete wave e of the bearish triangle, but more likely is a rally to 17,000 in wave E.
Market Commentary. As on Thurs 12 May 2022.
We have a situation where Nifty and Bank Nifty are in conflict. In our experience, Bank Nifty usually wins out, but not always. As in all things market, anything can happen, but is useful to be aware of. Let us see if this conflict can be reconciled in any way.
Bank Nifty has an interesting pattern where a bullish triangle may be complete or almost complete. Whether today’s low has completed wave E, time will tell. A strong bullish pattern from here on BN may be just the tonic for Nifty to also test the 18,100 level.
The problem with this is if new highs are expected in bank nifty that means an upside of 25% from current levels. This may be a stretch, but it is possible as long as 32,155 (wave C of triangle) is not violated.
There is a way to reconcile Nifty and Bank Nifty : It is that Bank Nifty ends with a truncation at about 38K ~ 39K in 5 waves, but falls short of new highs in its larger 5th wave, i.e. does not exceed 41,827.
This would then bring back focus into the Nifty alternate count where a test of 18,000 ~ 18,100 could be on the cards.
It is early to say, as 15,671 needs to hold first. Now lets deal with what happens if 15,671 gives way ? Read below.
If 15,671 gives way, it is not necessarily one way bearish. There could still be significant bounces in the interim, with wave X taking the shape of a large bearish triangle, or even an expanded flat which would test the 18,000 ~ 18,100 level.
Preferred count as long as 15,671 is not violated is the one shown this morning, which shows a bounce soon to above 17K.