Covid Waves Post No 8. As on Wed 29 Dec 2021.
This post deals with Covid in the U.S. and India.
This is one subject we had hoped never to re-visit on this site. But with an explosion of new cases per day to above 500,000 in the U.S., it looks like we will have to wait for a while before Covid is a horror of the past.
For those new to the subject, elliott waves are not confined to the financial markets. They are used to explain human behavior, natural phenomenon, and a combination of human and natural.. so basically, they explain Life.
By no means are events pre-ordained. Waves can be bent or disregarded, or patterns can fail. What they do show is tendencies or probabilities, not certainties.
U.S. Covid Cases : The massive spike shows the wave count in a most unwanted 3rd of 3rd to the upside. We will not get into figures, but this could become much worse very fast.
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Even if elliott waves are disregarded, the ascending triangle pattern shows that the covid count has vaulted over resistance at the 290K - 300K level with a huge gap up to 505K. This is a deeply troubling sign. One can only hope it is a false break-out.
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Covid in India : So far, the new cases per day has remained below 8,000, though a significant spike has already begun in metro cities.
The chart below shows if a breakout occurs above the trend line, and if it crosses 8,000, that could be the 1st sign India too will see an explosion of cases.
Covid in India & Elliott Waves. Part VII. As on Thurs 24 June 2021. Last official count 51,000 New Cases / day.
Bottom line : The first thing to be thankful for is a 5 wave pattern did not appear. The entire horrendous, mis-managed, and mis-governed rally was in 3 waves.
The 423% fibonacci extention at 414,000 / day turned out to be a peak.
Covid could move in cycles or a range for many months without providing a clear wave count. If the daily count figure exceeds and remains above the 1st wave top of 97,000, we could have a look at this chart again.
The hope is the new case count would remain in a range for a few months and then go down to almost nothing, as a larger percentage of our population gets vaccinated.
Covid in India & Elliott Waves. Part VI. As on Monday 17 May 2021. Last official count 311,000. Last unofficial count 2,81,000 (not shown on chart).
The 3rd wave in elliott terminology, more commonly known as the 2nd wave, peaked at exactly the 423% fibonacci extention of 414,000. Fibos are usually guidelines, but sometimes the accuracy is literally off-the-charts.
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Most likely, the dip in new cases is likely part of a 4th wave down to the 260,000 level (38.2% fibo retrace). If the case count begins rising after 260,000, and carries to new all time cases in a 5th wave, then unlikley this pandemic will be ending anytime soon for us, as that would leave an impulsive 5 waves up.
But if this pandemic has begun it's way out then the curve has to be bent, first to the 163,000 level (61% fibo retrace), and more importantly to be closely followed by a decline to below the 97,000 level (wave 1 top). Only a decline below 97,000 would be confirmation, as that would leave 3 waves up.
Covid In India & Elliott Waves. As on Wed 28 April 2021. Last official count 3.23 lakhs new cases per day. Last unofficial count (not reflecting on chart yet) : 3.6 lakhs new cases per day.
As the most unwanted rally in Indian history explodes higher in wave 3 of elliott terminology, more commonly known as the 2nd wave, it seems a matter of time before it reaches the 423% fibonacci extention at 413,000 new cases per day.
Beyond that is the 686% extention at 669,000. If it goes beyond that, we would need to switch to log scale on the chart instead of the arithmetic scale being used currently.
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What is of particular concern is the increase of weekly cases as shown in the chart below.
What is of equal concern is the gap up between weekly cases has also been increasing.
This week's candle has mercifully begun without a gap up. Last week's candle was the largest yet at above 87,000 new cases per week, so momentum is unfortunately still very strong to the upside.
Hopefully the candles will get shorter. This appears to be the best we can hope for at this stage.
Covid in India & Elliott. As on Wed 21 April 2021. Last official count of new cases in India : 259,000. Last unofficial count : 296,000.
As the grim count of new cases and deaths increases with a ferocity not seen elsewhere, the ineptitude and lack of foresight of our policy makers stands exposed. From oxygen to hospitals to vacciness to mass gatherings, the screw ups have been monumental. And now the costs are being borne by the general population, with the heaviest burden on lower income population. Meanwhile, doctors, nurses, and other healthcare personnel go thru their own version of hell which will likely affect their physical and mental health for years to come.
In elliott wave terminology, this is a clear wave 3. By some miracle if the new case count can be brought down soon to below 97,000, it may still become a wave C (as it would leave only 3 waves up which can be labelled as ABC), but this is looking more unlikely by the day.
In our post of 8 April when the new case count stood at 115,000 we said "There is a danger we will look back fondly to the previous peak in Sept 2020 of 97,000 new cases per day, as even that may look difficult to achieve."
Why is it important for it to become a wave C and not a wave 3. If the pattern is in 3 waves, it leaves great hope that the virus will be contained in the near term. But the increase since Mid Feb 2021 looks a lot like a wave 3, which means a 5 wave impulse is unfolding, which only means a further 5 wave increase down the road, which also means the virus is here to stay, for far longer than expected.
The new virus daily tally has increased past the 261.8% fibonacci extention of 2.56 lakhs. Give it another couple of days for a turn to occur. But if not, then the new case count could be headed to the 423% fibonacci extention at 415,000.
Beyond the 423% fibo extention is the 686% fibo extention at 671,000, but we shudder to even contemplate these massive numbers.
Covid in India & Elliott Waves. (Part III) As on 15 April 2021. Last official count of new cases on 13 April : 1.84 lakhs / day.
For those who think Elliott Wave is only about the stock market, it is not. Elliott Waves are about patterns that tend to occur in both human behavior and natural events. See this video that explains this in greater detail. It is called History's Hidden Engine.
Bottom line : The 161% extention at 1.59 lakhs has been comfortably exceeded and the new cases per day are nearer the 200% fibonacci extention of 1.96 lakh new cases / day. After this is the 261.8% extention level is at 2.56 lakhs new cases / day.
Do remember what we said just a week ago, on 8 April (when the new case count was at 1.15 lakhs per day) "There is a danger we will look back fondly to the previous peak in Sept 2020 of 97,000 new cases per day, as even that may look difficult to achieve."
It is our reasoning that if we can bend the curve quickly to below 97,000 new cases a day (thru a combination of vaccinations and targetted lockdowns), it could mean the pandemic in india is slowly coming to an end. (In elliott terminology, a daily new case count soon below 97,000 would likely rule out a 5 wave impulse playing out, as wave 4 would have entered the price territory of wave 1).
But if the new case count continues rapidly expanding and exceeds the 2.5 - 3.5 lakh / day mark, it would increase the probability of a 5 wave impulse, which means further increases down the road. This would also mean the virus is here to stay for much longer than expected.
There is no time to lose.
Covid in India and Elliott Waves. Part (II). As on Thurs 8 April 2021.
When we wrote our previous post on Covid 10 days ago, we did not expect to write a follow up analysis in such a short time. Unfortunately, the new case count is moving exactly as a wave 3 should, and this has serious implications.
For those who think Elliott Wave is only about the stock market, it is not. Elliott Waves are about patterns that tend to occur in both human behavior and natural events. See this video that explains this in greater detail. It is called History's Hidden Engine.
Last official count of new cases / day in India (on April 6) : 115,000
The new case count has almost doubled from 63,000/day on 29 March 2021 to 115,000/day on April 6, 2021 (in the short space of 9 days). This fast rise virtually confirms that we are headed to at least the 150% fibonacci extention at 147,000, but more likely to the 161% extention at 159,000 and quite possibly higher. (See post of 29 March).
The virus is already running rampant. It could rage thru our population in no time as we are already seeing. There is a danger we will look back fondly to the previous peak in Sept 2020 of 97,000 new cases per day, as even that may look difficult to achieve.
Both policy makers and civil society need to do more to halt this virus in its tracks (This could still change the wave 3 to a wave C in elliott wave terminology). An impulsive 5 wave up must be avoided at all costs, as that would signal at least another 5 wave increase down the road.
New COVID Cases in India & Elliott Wave Analysis. As on Monday (Holi) 29 March 2021. Last official count of New Covid Cases in India 62,714/day.
New Cases of Covid Cases in India on Feb 15, 2021 : Apprx 9,000/day
Current New Cases as of yesterday, 28 March 2021 : Apprx 63,000/day
7 times growth in 6 weeks.
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As the grim picture of new covid cases in India multiplies exponentially, we thought we would look to elliott waves to get a sense of where we are headed.
The extremely fast exponential rise in the last 6 weeks looks very much like a wave 3. (There are other options, but for now this seems the most probable).
If this is indeed a wave 3, new cases in India could rise to the following fibonacci extention multiples (it could stop at any of these levels) :
150% extention : 147,000 new cases / day
161% extention : 158,000 new cases / day
200% extention : 196,000 new cases / day
261% extention : 256,000 new cases / day
423% extention : 415,000 new cases / day.
These are very grim statistics. Policy response from the government has to be well-coordinated and meaningful to ensure this wave 3 is changed to a wave C. An impulsive 5 wave move up must be avoided at all cost, as it would signal further increases down the road.
Civil society, all of us, must also play a useful role by remaining safe with our family members.
Stay safe !!