Covid in India & Elliott. Part IV

Covid in India & Elliott. As on Wed 21 April 2021.  Last official count of new cases in India : 259,000.  Last unofficial count : 296,000.


As the grim count of new cases and deaths increases with a ferocity not seen elsewhere, the ineptitude and lack of foresight of our policy makers stands exposed.  From oxygen to hospitals to vacciness to mass gatherings, the screw ups have been monumental.  And now the costs are being borne by the general population, with the heaviest burden on lower income population.  Meanwhile, doctors, nurses, and other healthcare personnel go thru their own version of hell which will likely affect their physical and mental health for years to come.

In elliott wave terminology, this is a clear wave 3.  By some miracle if the new case count can be brought down soon to below 97,000, it may still become a wave C (as it would leave only 3 waves up which can be labelled as ABC), but this is looking more unlikely by the day.

In our post of 8 April when the new case count stood at 115,000 we said "There is a danger we will look back fondly to the previous peak in Sept 2020 of 97,000 new cases per day, as even that may look difficult to achieve."

Why is it important for it to become a wave C and not a wave 3.  If the pattern is in 3 waves, it leaves great hope that the virus will be contained in the near term.  But the increase since Mid Feb 2021 looks a lot like a wave 3, which means a 5 wave impulse is unfolding, which only means a further 5 wave increase down the road, which also means the virus is here to stay, for far longer than expected.


The new virus daily tally has increased past the 261.8% fibonacci extention of 2.56 lakhs.  Give it another couple of days for a turn to occur.  But if not, then the new case count could be headed to the 423% fibonacci extention at 415,000.

Beyond the 423% fibo extention is the 686% fibo extention at 671,000, but we shudder to even contemplate these massive numbers.