Covid in India & Elliott Waves. (Part III) As on 15 April 2021. Last official count of new cases on 13 April : 1.84 lakhs / day.
For those who think Elliott Wave is only about the stock market, it is not. Elliott Waves are about patterns that tend to occur in both human behavior and natural events. See this video that explains this in greater detail. It is called History's Hidden Engine.
Bottom line : The 161% extention at 1.59 lakhs has been comfortably exceeded and the new cases per day are nearer the 200% fibonacci extention of 1.96 lakh new cases / day. After this is the 261.8% extention level is at 2.56 lakhs new cases / day.
Do remember what we said just a week ago, on 8 April (when the new case count was at 1.15 lakhs per day) "There is a danger we will look back fondly to the previous peak in Sept 2020 of 97,000 new cases per day, as even that may look difficult to achieve."
It is our reasoning that if we can bend the curve quickly to below 97,000 new cases a day (thru a combination of vaccinations and targetted lockdowns), it could mean the pandemic in india is slowly coming to an end. (In elliott terminology, a daily new case count soon below 97,000 would likely rule out a 5 wave impulse playing out, as wave 4 would have entered the price territory of wave 1).
But if the new case count continues rapidly expanding and exceeds the 2.5 - 3.5 lakh / day mark, it would increase the probability of a 5 wave impulse, which means further increases down the road. This would also mean the virus is here to stay for much longer than expected.
There is no time to lose.