Covid In India and Elliott. Part (VI)

Covid in India & Elliott Waves. Part VI. As on Monday 17 May 2021. Last official count 311,000. Last unofficial count 2,81,000 (not shown on chart).

The 3rd wave in elliott terminology, more commonly known as the 2nd wave, peaked at exactly the 423% fibonacci extention of 414,000.  Fibos are usually guidelines, but sometimes the accuracy is literally off-the-charts.

 

--

Most likely, the dip in new cases is likely part of a 4th wave down to the 260,000 level (38.2% fibo retrace). If the case count begins rising after 260,000, and carries to new all time cases in a 5th wave, then unlikley this pandemic will be ending anytime soon for us, as that would leave an impulsive 5 waves up.

But if this pandemic has begun it's way out then the curve has to be bent, first to the 163,000 level (61% fibo retrace), and more importantly to be closely followed by a decline to below the 97,000 level (wave 1 top).  Only a decline below 97,000 would be confirmation, as that would leave 3 waves up.