BSE Metals Index Analysis. As on 8 July 2020. CMP 8439
The metals index had an excellent week, rallying 8.5%, very much in tune with the wave count. The long held target of 7900 ~ 8100 has been met and surpassed easily.
Further upside is expected. Also, Price closed on the weekly candle at the very top of the candle, signifying momentum remains bullish.
The larger count on the 2 month chart remains a bullish triangle hypothesis. Due to the large time frame involved going back to the year 2005, it will likely remain a working hypothesis for a long time until there is evidence to the contrary (meaning the projected path has worked so far, so not required to alter it).
The revised upside target for the next couple of weeks roughly is the 9,000 level.
Wave count has been adjusted on the daily chart. It appears within wave (iii) blue, wave v is extending to become the longest wave within wave (iii) blue.
BSE Metals Index Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 28 July 2020. CMP 7672
There has been no change to the wave count for a while now. Price has progressed nicely and almost reached our first target of 7,900.
The most important chart below is the daily chart. The larger time frames are still hypothesis. In this case the daily chart provided the clear patterns in the form of both an inverted head & shoulders (bullish formation) as well as an initial rally in 5 waves. Do look back and trace the pattern formations over the past few months. (See tab of 13 May).
Currently, price appears to be in a small corrective sequence, likely a triangle, in wave (iv) that still has a few more days to complete, before a thrust up and out occurs in wave (v) which should take price to the 8500 - 8,800 level.
BSE Metals Index Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 1 July 2020. CMP 7208
Price is nicely on track. Wave (iii) completed at 7687, and price is currently in a wave (iv) correction. The correction has declined sufficiently, but could fall further to the 6950 ~ 7000 level.
On completion of this current correction in wave (iv), new highs above 7687 are on the cards in line with our targets from earlier of 7900 - 8100.
A decline below 6773 would not be favourable to this wave count. Until that happens, there is no need to change a wave count projection that has followed script for a couple of months. The expectation remains bullish for a 5th wave up to the 7900 ~ 8100 level.
BSE Metals Index Analysis. As on 19 June 2020. CMP 7255
The uptrend remains intact. The previous head and shoulders pattern remains intact. The target zone of 7,900 ~ 8,100 remains intact.
But a decline below the recent low of 6773 would not be favourable to the wave count.
In addition to the head and shoulders, price appears to be tracing out a 5 wave impulse to the upside that should complete an initial 5 waves as wave A (or wave 1) in our target zone of 7,900 ~ 8,100.
The recent dip to 6773 did not test the wave (i) high of 6769, so it could be labelled as a wave (iv) correction, in anticipation of a wave (v) high to complete an initial wave A (or wave 1).
The slightly lower probability that recent dip could also be labelled as a smaller wave ii. This means price has completed a 1-2-1-2 rally sequence in anticipation of a 3rd of 3rd strong upside rally.
Note the lower time frames are based on the larger hypothesis that wave C low is in place of a larger triangle (2 month chart).
See other tabs for previous updates on BSE Metals.
BSE Metals Index Analysis. As on 2 June 2020. CMP 7107
On 13 May, we said "...it has created a 5 wave impulse from then AND it has broken a Head & Shoulders neckline, giving us reason to believe Metals may be a good place to start looking for bullish opportunities. ...A rally above 6600 would likely move sufficiently above the neckline to confirm the neckline break as well."
Price has convincingly broken the neckline and is in a 3rd wave up.
Price is looking good for continued upside to the 7900 ~ 8100 level. That is still a fair distance away.
BSE Metals Index Analysis. As on 13 May 2020. CMP 6431
The hypothesis on the monthly / 2 month charts was that a low could be in place at 5336 (low of 23 March 2020), but since it was a possible wave C of a triangle, there was no real evidence or intention to get bullish. It was purely a working hypothesis.
But since then, price has done 2 important things, both on the daily chart, which has given substance to the working hypothesis.
It has created a 5 wave impulse from then AND it has broken a Head & Shoulders neckline, giving us reason to believe Metals may be a good place to start looking for bullish opportunities.
A rally above 6600 would likely move sufficiently above the neckline to confirm the neckline break as well.