Bank Nifty Update. As on Mon 22 Nov 2021. CMP 37,070. Posted at 2 pm.
Bottom line : Price has touched reasonably strong support. A bounce is due.
Price has reached the lower half of the 4th wave of prior degree at 37,000. There are multiple support levels in this area of 36,900 ~ 37,100. It is too early to say what pattern will unfold, but a bounce to above 38,000 from current levels is a possibility.
Intermediate term target remains the 33,000 level.
Bank Nifty Update. As on 17 Nov 2021. CMP 38,264. Posted at 2:15 pm.
Bottom line : A bounce is due, but cannot rule out small further decline to the 37,500 ~ 37,700 level.
The intermediate picture is bearish, likely towards the 33,000 level. In the short term, a bearish triangle could be unfolding.
In the very short term, price is still searching for a temporary low, which could be anywhere between current price and 37,500 level.
Bank Nifty Update. As on Monday 15 Nov 2021. CMP 38,950.
Bottom line : A 5 wave impulse down may be complete at 38,348. The short term move may be sideways to higher.
Primary count : If 5 waves down is complete on the 4 hour chart, the short term move may be sideways to higher towards the 50-61% fibo retrace at 40,000 ~ 40,500 in wave b, which should be followed by further weakness in wave c to below 36,000.
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Alternate count : A bearish triangle could also unfold where price moves sideways between 38,500 ~ 39,700 for a couple of weeks. A test of 40,160 towards 40,500 is also possible in case an expanded flat develops as wave b.
Bank Nifty Update. As on Thurs 11 Nov 2021. CMP 38,470. Posted at 2:30 pm.
Bottom line : 5 waves down from 41,827 has been confirmed with a new low below 38,453. Price is likely close to a temporary low, but further declines to the 37,200 ~ 38,000 level cannot be ruled out.
On look out for a temporary low. The short term sub-divisions from 39,558 do not appear complete, so a little further down is likely. The 37,700 level would make a good target as the zone of 37,300 ~ 37,900 has excellent support.
Note that both Nifty & Bank Nifty have fulfilled minimum requirements for their respective short term declines. Nifty could still decline to the 17,700 level while Bank Nifty could decline to below 38,000.
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The larger term wave counts show a B wave top in place of a large bullish triangle, and price is headed lower in the intermediate term to the 33,000 level.
Bank Nifty Update. As on Tues 9 Nov 2021. CMP 39,400. Posted at 10:30 am.r
Bottom line : Preference is for a decline to below 38,453 to form 5 waves down. A rally above 40,200 would not be conducive to this count.
Expectation is for price to decline to the target zone as shown, roughly 37,000 ~ 38,400 in wave A, after which a sideways to higher can be expected in wave B.
Intermediate term target under this count is roughly 33,000.
A rally soon above 40,200 could cause us to expect some more sideways to bullish behavior, and 38,453 would be labelled as wave A.
Bank Nifty Update. As on Wed, 3 Nov 2021. CMP 40,100. Posted at 9:40 am.
Wish you a Happy Diwali !!
Bottom line : Preference is for price to decline to below 38,453 to form a 5 wave impulse. But a sustained rally above 40,200 would hint at the probability that a temporary low was formed at 38,453 (which would then be a likely wave A of a triangle or flat correction).
Price has rallied far enough for a small wave iv on the hourly chart. Preference is for the decline to commence soon to below 38,453. This would form a 5 wave impulse to the downside, and bolster the view that price is eventually headed lower to at least the 37,700 level (and possibly the 33,000 level over the intermediate term).
But a sustained rally above 40,200 could mean the recent low at 38,453 has formed wave A, and that would lower the probability of the bearish view. It would also open up the upside for a possible test of the all time high of 41,827 (in a flat correction or a barrier triangle).
Bank Nifty Update. As on Friday 29 Oct 2021. CMP 39,170. Posted at 1:55 pm.
Bottom line : Wave B top of a larger bullish triangle is likely in place at 41,827. Shorter term targets were 39,500 and 37,700. 1st target has been met. 37,700 is still to be met.
In contrast to Nifty 50, Bank Nifty appears to be developing a 5 wave down, which should take price to 37,000 ~ 37,700. In simple english, BN is looking weaker than Nifty.
In the very short term, price is likely to be in a small 4th wave sideways to higher before it declines to above mentioned target.
The 40,000 level may be tested but is not necessary at all. It could continue sideways to lower. Once a 5 wave down is complete at roughly 37,000 ~ 37,700, a significant bounce could be expected.
Bank Nifty Update. As on Wed 27 Oct 2021. Posted at 4:20 pm.
Bottom line : Suspect Bank Nifty has made an important top. Bank Nifty should lead the Nifty to the downside in the coming days.
There are 2 reasons for this assumption. (Any short trade taken should have a stop loss above 42,000).
- The 3 day chart shows a spinning top with a long rejection wick.
- The longer term charts (weekly and above) that show price has been rejected from the top line of a trend channel going back to year 2010.
On the hourly chart, near term support at 40,550 and 40,150 is expected to give way soon. The 39,500 is a 1st target to the downside, followed by 37,700 (both are 4th waves of lower degrees).
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3 day chart has formed a spinning top. The longer term target (if the wave count works out) is about 33,000.
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Weekly chart : price has tested the upper trend channel line. Perfect place for a rejection candle and for price to commence it's downward journey in wave C of a larger bullish triangle.
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Bank Nifty Update. As on Fri 22 Oct 2021. CMP 40,400. Posted at 12:15 pm.
Bottom line : A turn is late in developing. Rest of the market is falling. It should be a matter of time before Bank Nifty begins to decline. There is major divergence between rest of the market and Banking stocks, which cannot continue for long.
1st chart shown is the Monthly chart (order of charts has been reversed to show largest time frame first). This is one of the primary reasons we have no interest in turning bullish on Bank Nifty. Price has touched the top channel line. Could it extend it's rally a while further ? Yes it could. But the conservative option is to expect a turn lower.
The trend channel does not depend on the wave labelling. So irrespective of the larger count, this is a strong channel going back to year 2010. Resistance is expected to kick in. But this is a monthly chart, where each candle is 1 month, so whether it will happen immediately or after a few weeks is pure guess work based on this larger degree time frame. However, the smaller time frames suggest a turn lower should be sooner rather than later.
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3 day & Weekly : This could be wave 5 up instead of wave B, but it does not fit as well as wave B does. Our best assumption is a 4th wave triangle in progress which should result in a decline in wave C to 32,000 ~ 33,000 level.
Notice the test of the channel on the weekly chart.
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daily chart : Price has thrust out of a small 4th wave triangle and is completing 5 waves to the upside (since the thrust out)
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4 hour & 1 hour charts : The thrust up from the smaller triangle on the daily chart commenced at 37,674. Since then price has made a 5 wave advance that is likely almost complete with yet another smaller triangle in it's 4th wave (see hourly chart).
Based on all these factors, we believe a turn down is imminent in Bank Nifty.
