Bank Nifty posts 6 – 17 Aug – Elliott Wave India

6 August 2020

13 August 2020

17 August 2020

Bank Nifty Update. As on 6 Aug 2020. CMP 21,642 (Posted well after market hours).

While the Nifty 50 is offering us conflicting options, the Bank Nifty has been reasonably clear with it’s counts and has kept us bullish (or at least sideways to bullish).

It is worth focusing on the Bank Nifty. Both counts are not bearish.

One count is sideways to bullish for the next 2-3 weeks before a decline, the other is strongly bullish without a near term decline.

The manner of the expected rally in the next week or 2 in Bank Nifty has become vitally important to determine if and when we should turn bearish on equities.

Primary count : This shows price in a complex triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z that should take price to the 25,000 ~ 26,000 level to complete wave Z.

In the very near term, price is also bullish in a likely small 3rd wave of wave A. Only a daily close below 20,926 would put this count in jeopardy.

—

Alternate count : This count is very bullish for a rally in wave 3 (or wave C). This count shows a larger wave 4 ended in a truncation. Then a leading diagonal formed (as wave 1 or A) followed by a perfect flat correction (in wave 2 or B).

Under this count, price should rally strongly to the 26,000 ~ 27,000 level in wave 3, which could be followed by waves 4 down and wave 5 up again.

Bank Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis. As on 13 Aug 2020. CMP 22,253

Bottom line : Whichever count is used, price is bullish against 21,000. There is essentially no change to the analysis of 6 Aug when price was 21,642. Only a violation of 21,000 would cause a change in view, but that is not likely at this stage.

Primary Count : This shows price in a complex triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z that should take price to the 25,000 ~ 26,000 level to complete wave Z. A correction near term to the 21,700 ~ 21,800 is possible.

Alternate : This count is bullish for a rally in wave 3 (or wave C). This count shows a larger wave 4 ended in a truncation. Then a leading diagonal formed (as wave 1 or A) followed by a perfect flat correction (in wave 2 or B).

We believe Bank Nifty offers a good opportunity for options / futures traders as risk level is clearly defined.

All counts are bullish against the 21,000 level. If 21,000 is violated, it would call for a re-evaluation. There is no real preference re count, as all 3 counts are essentially expecting higher levels.

Count 1 : Price is currently in a triple correction within wave B to the upside. Triple correction means W-X-Y-X-Z. Price is currently in the 2nd wave X that appears to be unfolding as a triangle. On completion of the wave X triangle, wave Z to the upside is yet to come. If wave Z = Waves X and Y, then a target of 27,000 on the Bank Nifty is likely.

–

Wave D could be forming it’s own smaller bullish triangle.

—

Count 2 : This count is a less bullish with a minimum target of roughly 23,500. This shows wave X completed as a flat, and wave Z is already underway to the upside.

—

Count 3 : This count shows a leading diagonal formed as wave 1 (or wave A), followed by a perfect flat correction in wave 2 (or wave B), and price should now rally in wave 3 (or wave C). Target for this count is 27,000 where wave C = wave A.